Analyst: iPhone 5 sales could hit 10 million in first week

Analyst: iPhone 5 sales could hit 10 million in first week

Summary: Apple has managed to increase, often double, its previous sales targets during the first week and weekend of each smartphones' launch. With estimates of 6-10 million sold in the first week; actually, it's quite plausible.

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With the iPhone 5 (or the 'next iPhone' -- or whatever, it doesn't actually matter) expected to be announced next week at an Apple press conference, one Apple analyst claims the technology giant could surpass, if not double, previous initial sales targets.

Screen_Shot_2012-09-04_at_9.04.10_AM_610x565
Apple invitation to the media. Credit: CNET

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a research note today (via AllThingsD) that "if [September 21] is the actual ship date, Apple could sell 6 million to 10 million iPhone 5's in the final week of September barring supply issues."

Apple sold 1.7 million iPhone 4 devices during its first three days of availability; and sold four million iPhone 4S devices a year later in the first weekend alone.

10 million in a week is... well, it's a lot, but it's a wide estimate so don't go too overboard. Plus, many are holding out upgrading their phones until the iPhone 5 is out, so a sudden rush marking a larger number of buyers could potentially tip into Munster's estimates. 

According to AllThingsD, Wall Street is expecting 22-23 million iPhones to be sold during the September quarter alone, but crucially it's a good way-away from the Christmas holiday sales where many previously-bought contracts end and sales typically rocket through the roof. 

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said also today in a research note that the new iPhone 5 will "not be hampered by chip and display-related supply chain shortages" as previously expected.

He expects sales volume to bellow by late September for the new iPhone, and a similar patch of high volume selling for the dubbed-'iPad mini' in early October, adding: 

We are not concerned about a "mini" (iPad) encroaching on Apple's current tablet penetration opportunities. We think the iPad mini will target the budget-conscious consumer or the e-reader focused end user, implying the device offers incremental penetration opportunities. Meanwhile, we do not expect enterprise- and education-based end users to gravitate to the smaller screen size of an iPad mini. 

Moskowitz hedged and avoided giving defined figures, but gave revised estimated that Apple will sell in total by the end of fiscal year 2013 around 168 million iPhones and 91 million iPads.

By comparison, Apple sold more than 85.9 million iPhones in total in the U.S. since its launch in Q2 2007 up to Q2 2012, according to earlier court filings that were outed during the Apple v. Samsung patent ding-dong

"We expect both product lines to offset weakness in Mac and iPod," he said. iPods are also expected to make an appearance at the September 12 announcement, while a separate dedicated iPad mini event is pegged for early October.

Sister site CNET will, of course, be there live-blogging the event.

Topics: Apple, iPhone, Smartphones, Tech Industry

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42 comments
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  • Know what else *could* happen?

    Apple *could* also not meet their target.
    Atlantis *could* rise from the sea.
    elite_logic
  • meh...

    Nobody is exited about iphone 5 except the press. the financial graph doesn't go up all the time, if it goes up for a while, then its an indication that its going to come crashing down...
    owllnet
    • Not excited huh?

      You must have been excited to both read the article and to post a response. If not - you're just a troll!
      jamboy34
      • Android WILL sell seven million phones in the same time frame

        No ifs buts about it.

        Considering Apple's lackluster sales the last TWO quarters, if s quiet possible that they may only reach less than 6 million units sold that first week.

        Considering that this period only one of over fifty users in our company chose an iPhone over Galaxy SIII. I'm more inclined to doubt Apple can meet its target.
        Uralbas
    • dickhertz

      Maybe you! you cant afford it anyway ..keep using you SAMSUCK Galazy!
      M getting 5 iPhones 5 unlocked retail price ..
      Thats how I roll!
      dick_hertz
  • Apple doesn't exists in a void anymore...

    Samsung sold 6 millions of Galaxy S3 in 2 months, thanks to the copyright issues the Korean company had free "adsspace", and in countries like Italy that are usually slaves to US pop fashion the sight of S3 handsets are more and more common.
    So, Apple now has to confront a new danger, that the korean handsets are the new "things to have".
    Add to that the fact that in Italy you can have an S3 at 60 USD or an S2 free, if included in a 30 or 24 monts plan with two of the best local phone networks...
    acosta@...
    • Please, do you actually believe that?

      Samsung phone is the phone to have? It's a copy. With no ecosystem, no real App store (copy of one, all sorts of malware, all sorts of devices being supported, tons of incompatibilities). No security. No app development environment at all--just use Java. LOL No iTunes! No iBooks! Weak
      comp_indiana
      • You don't believe

        android is creaming ios in the smartphone market then? SGS3 *currently* outselling iphone. Galaxy range outselling iphone range.

        Copy or not, you seem to be out of touch with the rest of the world.
        Little Old Man
      • excuse me?

        where do we start what do you call the Google Play? pretty sure that's an app store, it has like apps and you can buy them! who'd have guessed? and what do you mean by no ecosystem? I mean I can get android powered phones tablets and media players, just because their not from the same manufacturer doesn't mean its not an ecosystem. whats the issue with diversification of manufacturers? and as for security you have a bunch of software you could put on Avast, Norton, McAfee, all of which are available for your super secure ios products too. You can keep your overly priced "ibooks". you literally have no idea what you are talking about, if I could guess your age its somewhere around 12. Oh I forgot to bring up the android SDK... pretty sure that's an app developing environment. Have fun reading this on you, iPad, iPhone and Mac Book, hope you thanked your parents for all the time and cash they wasted.
        Samuel Pagano
  • iBored

    are we supposed to be excited? I'm more pumped for What Nokia and Amazon have to offer than this fruity company. yawn!
    Xenon8
    • It's ZD Net

      Practically the Register. Full of Windows fanboys.
      comp_indiana
      • LOL this is from Ying

        Yang over here said they are all Droid Boys.... then Yong over there said they are all Apple Boys... If you come here a lot you know that all three are true. What a Hoosier.
        TheBottomLineIsAllThatMatters
    • Bored huh?

      You must have been excited to both read the article and to post a response. If not - you're just a troll!
      jamboy34
  • More of the same

    The flash is gone and the competition has caught up. It was a nice run. For me, the poor reliability has me planning to buy something other than the iPhone in the next round.
    happyharry_z
  • Analyst: iPhone 5 sales could hit 10 million in first week

    More hype to raise that stock. Lets see at what point Gene Munster decides to sell.
    Loverock Davidson-
  • "New" iphone

    Apple should not be allowed to sell any of their products until the mediaeval slave labour conditions under which their products are assembled are addressed.
    robc2
    • Try to keep up

      The Two Minutes' Hate concerning Apple's slave labor practices was cancelled. Today's Two Minutes' Hate is about Samsung's slave labor practices. Since the Lumia phones are also being built by Foxconn, it's only a matter of time before they get their turn in the barrel. Buy one quick, before we have to hate them too.
      Robert Hahn
      • Actually ... Samsung's slave labor practices are a hell of a lot worst

        Samsung's slave labor is getting paid less than half of Apple's slave labor, working more hours and most are under age child labor.
        wackoae
        • Brilliant

          my slave labour is better than your slave labour.

          Do you work for Samsung in china then? All the reports I have read state child labour has been used but according you, the entire factories are run by kids.

          Beats school?
          Little Old Man
  • Say: iPhone 4S user

    "iPhone 5 sales could hit 10 million in first week " i will be one of them.
    Real USER