2009: Will It Be Better For Cable TV Than 2010 ... or 2011 ... or 2012?

Satellite TV has been gaining subscribers, relentlessly this decade. Particularly DirecTV, which had 3.8 million subscribers at the end of June 1998 and counted 17.2 million, at the end of this June, according to this compilation by the Satellite Broadcasting and Communications Association of America.

Cable TV has been treading water. According to the National Cable & Telecommunications Association, the number of basic cable TV subscribers is largely unchanged from a decade ago, as shown by its tally.

Next year could be its last big chance to gain subscribers in significant numbers. But Julian Brodsky says cable in 2009 is "a shoo-in for 1 million new customers." And it could be twice that, he says.

Brodsky is a founder and vice chairman of Comcast Corporation, the nation's largest cable operator. He spoke Tuesday at the OnScreen Media Summit, put on by Multichannel News and Broadcasting & Cable at the Edison Ballroom in New York. The cause for his optimism?

The Feb. 17, 2009, cutoff date for broadcasters still sending out TV programming as analog signals.

The advent of completely digital broadcasting is a marketing opportunity for cable and satellite TV operators.

They already serve almost 100 million households, between them. What's left? About 10 million households holding out for over-the-air signals, be they analog or digital.

These households need to either get digital TV sets able to receive local digital broadcast signals, converter boxes from electronics outlets that will allow take in digital signals and feed analog equivalents to old-style TV sets -- or sign up with a cable TV or satellite service that will put their own boxes in place to deliver local signals (and more). They hope to convert over-the-air free TV viewers into paying subscribers.

They will ease the way by offering low-cost "lifeline" TV packages and free installation of set-top boxes. They will try, once they've gotten a foot in the customer's door, to upsell to more services later. And they will be putting big bucks into "educating" the customer about the upcoming transition to digital TV broadcasting. You've seen the ads already. All told, one Summit participant estimated that $1 billion of marketing is being put behind the Feb. 17 opportunity.

The "only negative aspect," in the eyes of Tom Eagan, a senior research analyst at the Collins Stewart investment banking group? "You take all of the growth now, instead of spreading it over the next couple of years."

Ergo, when it comes to basic cable TV subscribership, you won't see the "same growth" when 2010, 20011 or 2012 comes around, he says.

The bright spot for cable, even in a foundering economy, will be 2009.

It's a shoo-in.