Analysis: Business sales of Windows 98 will be slow
The difference in the hoopla, attention (especially from the DOJ), and strategic importance could not be more different. And, Win/98 is a pretty good product. On the consumer side of the market, households seem to be accepting the product, at least as a bundled OS on new PCs.
Yet, if we look at the first 30 days of customer activity since the launch of Win/98,
its sales results as well as any plans for future purchase are a bit underwhelming from
the commercial market.
I'm not arguing that Win/98 is a key commercial upgrade, rather, that given the fixes it provides, the stability, and support for USB, one would have to reasonably conclude that there should be a lot more than token interest among commercial customers.
Creative statistics
After seeing the finished product, it would only have seemed rational that interest in
this product as an upgrade would have picked up. But based on ZD Market Intelligence's
latest interviews of more than 15,000 firms in the last seven months, the trend line of
Win/98 planned purchases is not only small, but it's relatively flat. Sure, it has gone up
500%, but that's liar's use of statistics. It has gone from 1 to 5%, and in the first 30
days after launch, the needle hasn't moved.
Clearly part of the issue is that Microsoft, facing the most unwarranted anti-trust case I've seen in the computer industry, cannot put the kind of marketing campaign behind the product that they normally would have. It seems that the trade press has been the only place where Win/98's merits and flaws get any mention. The vaunted Microsoft marketing machine is stuck in DOJ neutral.
Perhaps we can call this lack of uptick "the Hatch effect". I'm not apologizing for Microsoft, but if you analyze why Win/98 might be stuck in neutral, you have to consider the lack of a huge marketing effort as a key cause.
NT 5.0 looms
Another issue is the pending arrival of NT 5.0. While many are waiting and hanging their hats
on this next release, the planned purchase levels for NT have also remained stable. My
sense is that commercial customers are not yet convinced that either product strategy will
be the right one.
We do know that the configurations being bought by most mid- and large-sized firms are NT 5.0 "ready", and that may be a sign. Also, the amount of attention that current conflicts between Win/98 and existing applications is getting has also caused concern.
Finally, 30 days isn't forever. So check back at InfoBead Insider for the 100 day update. That should be an interesting timeframe to look at, as NT 5.0 alpha's or beta's should be somewhat available and Win/98 will be a much better known quantity.