Coop's Scoop: A Microsoft birthday and more Napster mutterings

The week's big event takes place in the Pacific Northwest, where a certain software company celebrates its 25th anniversary. And there is much reason for celebration: Microsoft qualifies as one of the great success stories of modern times. With the exception of IBM and Intel, Microsoft has arguably had more impact on the development of the computer industry that any other company in the world. Thousands of people, here and abroad, owe their jobs, directly or indirectly, to the raft of products and technologies emanating from the company's Redmond, Wash., campus.

Yet as it reaches the quarter century mark, smack in the middle of middle age according to the time and space metrics governing the computer industry, Microsoft faces a challenging and uncertain future. It's less than a sure bet that Windows will dominate the next 25 years. It took a while, but Microsoft finally got religion about the Internet and avoided what might have otherwise been quite a nasty tumble. It will need to remain exceptionally nimble as a host of challengers -- some new, many old -- rise up. In this new world order, size and entrenched position aren't always an advantage.

All the while, the looming specter of a court-ordered breakup continues to haunt Bill Gates and his senior managers. If Judge Jackson's verdict remains in place, one Microsoft story ends and a new one begins. Just how that might turn out is anybody's guess.

Another week, another report -- this one from the record studios -- reporting that CDs are doing quite nicely, thank you. The Recording Industry Association of America says full-length CD shipments reached an all-time high in the first half of the year. So much for the destructive commie influence of Napster, though I'm sure that Hillary Rosen, the official mouthpiece for the industry, will find a way to make the (increasingly unconvincing) case. Lawyers for MP3.com have their work cut out for them: The judge in the case, Jed Rakoff, isn't interested in the argument that Universal Music Group refused to settle its lawsuit against the cyber music outfit in a transparent effort to cripple MP3.com. That was shaping up as one of the defense's best cards. "This is a trial to determine the (intent) of the defendant," he said. "The motivation of any other parties is not involved in this case." Uh oh.

Don't expect to hear any blood-curdling cries out of AOL any time soon. Even though Microsoft is launching yet another assault -- a new Web browser, video and music capability and content ported over from MSN -- AOL is laying low on purpose. The company already has its hands full winning regulatory clearance for its pending merger with Time-Warner, and now its senior execs will be jetting off to Europe to convince antitrust enforcers on the Continent that the deal will not result in the domination of Web access.

I'm usually not a huge fan of industry consortia, but the formation of the Open Source Development Lab could turn out to be just what was needed to extend Linux to the enterprise. The unanswered question is how this bunch will interact with the original Open Source groupies.

Steve Mills is making the rounds to introduce himself as IBM's new software chief. He has big shoes to fill. Mills' predecessor, John M. Thompson, turned in a performance that equaled the big clean up of the Augean Stables. If he can leverage the huge arsenal built up by IBM since the 1995 Lotus acquisition, Big Blue might just establish itself as the king of middleware. If he can't, Oracle and Microsoft will eat IBM's lunch.

What with reports of a massive pending layoff, the situation at Novell is apparently going from bad to worse. After reporting a lousy fiscal Q3, the company is girding for an across-the-board cut. What's next? As Novell cuts its dependence on NetWare, I don't know whether the growth in the services business will be enough to offset the decline in sales of packaged software. (Somewhat similar to the quandary Jim Manzi faced before Lotus got acquired by IBM. Back then, the communications business was increasing but not fast enough to make up for the shortfall in the applications business.)

Quack.com got snapped up by AOL, raising an obvious question about the future of other so-called voice portals. To be sure, American Online has a particular interest in voice -- remember its acquisition of the telephone-based MovieFone service. But with a move into this nascent market by the biggest Net player of them all, how long before rival portals follow suit?

Yahoo!'s stock got whacked after a story in The Wall Street Journal raised questions about a retreat by online advertisers. Yes, the Yahoo!'s of the world once lorded over wannabe dotcom's when it came to contract negotiatons. These small fry were desperate to advertise on high-traffic sites. But with doubts about the effectiveness of banner ads, the tables have turned on Yahoo! and its brethren.

FCC revives home networking battle
Does Universal want MP3.com dead?
Intel to boost Celeron bus
Lawsuits seek to bust Rambus
Dotcoms dial back on advertising
The new Linux clubhouse
The new virus war zone: Your PDA
Judge OKs MS class action suits
Novell plans massive layoffs
Microsoft at 25
Seybold: In with the new