Desktop Linux opportunity is thick in the BRICK

That is where desktop Linux opportunities are most pronounced, according to Dave Rosenberg, principal analyst at OSDL and the man who led a survey of the field last fall.

"We’re so close in a lot of ways," to Linux gaining major market share, Rosenberg said as he prepared for today's Desktop Linux Summit in San Diego.

Ubuntu, which rose to prominence by delivering localized versions of Linux for specific language markets, is a big part of it. You are more likely to find Linux in your local minor language today than Windows.

And speaking of Microsoft, that is Rosenberg's second reason why desktop Linux may finally be ready. "My feeling, from the buyers’ side as well as the analyst side, is the timing is right. That’s because Microsoft is in the middle of a major product shift. 

"Vista will probably be bloated, it will be targeted by all the hackers, there’s a different User Interface, then Office 12 is bizarre – it will be both overshoot and undershoot, and it also has a new User Interface. 

"Why bother at this point to upgrade?"  And at this point we might think seriously about Linux. Especially in the BRICK countries. Because even if you're pirating Windows, the new software will require retraining, which costs time and money.