Developers are key to Sun's Java success
In response to "Sun bets its future on Java" Don Babcock writes:
Sun bets its future on Java? Pretty solid bet, IMO. Can Sun do it with competition from the likes of IBM? Yes, I think so. Sun has "first mover" status with Java, and if it capitalizes on that, it will be hard for IBM to be anything more than Avis to Sun's Hertz.
A key ingredient will be securing and growing developer mindshare. IBM has historically missed this and has rather gone after the middle and big guys and forgotten about the two guys in a garage with an idea. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Big Blue, but this is a blind spot with IBM.
Microsoft offered tools that let the little guys play and Visual Basic is arguably the single biggest reason for the success of Windows over OS/2. For the first two (critical) years of its life, the only way to do serious OS/2 development was with Microsoft C! Startups that had viable OS/2 development products to compete with Visual Basic were ignored into oblivion by IBM and they missed the opportunity. If Sun "puts the cookies on the lower shelf" so that the little guys can do neat things with ease, the company will gather a loyal cadre of developers. Those folks are as religious and evangelical as ever and if you give them a "gospel" that sells, they'll do it for you. Solid support for the Linux/open source community can be a big draw.
Case in point: At my institution (a major university), Solaris and Sun are the "big boys on campus" for power computing. Many of us have advocated Linux as a Unix alternative but the powers that be are comfortable with Sun/Solaris. Well, if Sun turns out a Solaris version of Linux, it can't help but be a win-win. It is the Linux that the techies want coupled with the cachet of Sun (read: security blanket) that the decision makers want.
One thing Sun could do to ace out the others is put their enterprise IDE Java development tools on the lower shelf. They also need to partner with a view to driving down the the barriers to entry. The per/seat pricing of the enterprise versions are way out of line with the modest added value, and yet the marketers have been very cagey. Any developer of consequence wants to use database/data driven applications; yet, to get essential data store wizards and functionality you almost always have to purchase the enterprise versions.
Borland and Microsoft took the developer world by storm in the 1980s with tooling that was in the $100/seat category (Turbo Pascal, VB, and Delphi). Sun needs to revisit that play. No one goes out to buy only a computer or an OS; they buy a box to run their applications and the box with the most, best and least expensive apps wins. That takes an army of developers. They need to follow the Gillette model. Give away the razors and sell the blades. They should provide top-quality development tools and rock bottom prices (try to stay below $100) and then watch the market explode with products. When they see a good one, perhaps acquire it if it fits the business.
I think Sun could turn Java and Linux into the next Windows but they'll need to take a lesson from the VB playbook. What if Sun partnered with KDE or GNOME to produce a Sun desktop? The cachet of the Sun name is a huge asset. They are credible in Corporate America in ways that the likes of Red Hat are only beginning to realize. But the true test of success will be when you see low-cost, shrink-wrapped apps competing for shelf space at your local department/electronics store with the Wintel titles. That requires developers--and developer mindshare; you have to make the barriers to entry as low as you possibly can for the legions of geeks out there with the next good idea.
Don Babcock
Senior Consultant
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical Center