Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

Summary:Gartner---and IDC---are basing a 2012 to 2015 Windows Phone 7 market share surge on faith in Nokia. I don't see how you can have that much faith given what we've seen from Nokia so far.

Gartner, like its rival IDC, is projecting that Nokia will make Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 the second largest smartphone platform by 2015. Both firms are expecting a big Windows Phone 7 surge in 2013 and beyond.

Gartner predicts that Android will rule the smartphone roost for the foreseeable future. But that's not news really considering that Android domination reports are a dime a dozen.

What's notable in Gartner's report is that it is very similar to IDC's take that Nokia's market heft alone will make Windows Phone 7 a dominant player with 19.5 percent market share in 2015. Gartner has Windows Phone 7 at 10.8 percent market share in 2012. Windows Phone 7 will nibble away at Apple and Research in Motion market share. Also see: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

Here's the scorecard:

Gartner writes:

Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieve in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.

As I noted I don't quite buy the Symbian for Windows Phone 7 swap. I also don't think that Nokia will be as dominant in circa 2015 devices as it is today. I agree that Nokia will propel Windows Phone 7, but a 2015 market share of 13 percent to 15 percent is more reasonable. There are way too many unknowns to get Windows Phone 7 to 20 percent based on Nokia alone. Gartner---and IDC---are basing a 2012 to 2015 market share surge on faith in Nokia. I don't see how you can have that much faith given what we've seen from Nokia so far.

Topics: Enterprise Software, CXO, IT Priorities, Microsoft, Mobility, Windows


Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CN... Full Bio

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