Google future: GOOG @ $600 or $300?

Is Google a guaranteed winner?

Google is a phenomenon, and so is GOOG.

GOOG launched in 2004 with an Initial Public Offering share price of $85. On November 21, 2006, Google’s shares topped the symbolic $500 share hurdle.

I asked ZDNet readers at the time: GOOG @ $510: Do you buy or sell? A spilt decision was rendered on GOOG: With over 400 votes cast, ZDNet readers split down the middle with 50% predicting an upside and 50% a downside for GOOG.

To date, ZDNet’s collective wisdom is right on the mark. GOOG has been trading in the $500 trading range since it hit $500 for the first time; As I write GOOG is trading @ $490. GOOG’s ambivalence is not surprising.

Despite the public love affair for Google, its stock has not been a stellar performer of late: GOOG trailed the S & P in 2006. Google shares appreciated 11% in 2006, versus 14% gains for the S & P 500 index.

What about 2007?

Readers of this Digital Markets Blog know I forecast a decline in Google’s fortunes, sooner rather than later. I make my not so rosy Google case in “Yahoo vs. Google: Why Panama is the wrong destination” and “Yahoo vs. Google: Should Yahoo surrender?”.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? IS GOOG A BUY OR SELL FOR 2007?
[poll id=33]

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