Here's why I predict iPhone will come down to $299 within a few months

With his customary deftness, my CNET colleague Tom Krazit mashes up some numbers from AT&T's earnings call this week with other numbers from Apple iPhone sales and projected sales reports.Tom's conclusion: iPhone sales are slowing, especially in AT&T's sales channels.

With his customary deftness, my CNET colleague Tom Krazit mashes up some numbers from AT&T's earnings call this week with other numbers from Apple iPhone

iphone23.jpg
sales and projected sales reports.

Tom's conclusion: iPhone sales are slowing, especially in AT&T's sales channels.

OK, let us take that as fact. Where does this lead us?

First it would be helpful to understand why this appears to be happening.

I think that in terms of iPhone sales, Apple is right at a "crossing the chasm" moment. First coined in 19 by author Geoffrey Moore, "crossing the chasm" can refer to the place in a tech product life cycle where the early adopters have all bought the product and now said product must cross over to the mainstream.

The iPhone is right at that point. Most everyone who simply had to have an iPhone now has one. But to vigorously expand its user base, iPhone needs to harvest users who aren't tied down to AT&T and are a while from cycling out of their two-year agreements.

And in an economy that appears to be headed for megastress, Apple will need to lessen the $399.99pain of buying an iPhone.

The pump needs to be primed.

We're talking simple economics, here, people. iPhone will come down to $299.00. And I am saying sooner rather than later. A few months at most-no later than late May of this year, which would mark a year from iPhone's crazed debut.

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