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Is Android the new Windows?
Google's operating system is installed on almost three quarters of all mobile devices sold, and these devices are now outselling PCs. But is market dominance where the similarities end?
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
Yes
or
No
Christopher Dawson
Best Argument: No
Audience Favored: No (54%)
The moderator has delivered a final verdict.
Opening Statements
The new Windows
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes: The PC is on life support. Sales have flatlined as a result of consumers and enterprise choosing spending their money on new devices such as tablets and smartphones, sending PC OEMs into a tailspin. This shift from the PC to a post-PC world has resulted in an erosion in the dominance of Windows, and in its place mobile platforms have gained both popularity and market share.When it comes to mobile platforms, Google's Android platform is the runaway leader. Not only is the operating system installed on almost three quarters of all mobile devices sold, these devices are now outselling PCs.
While Microsoft's dominance on the desktop essentially prevented Linux from making any headway in that market, a shift in demand to mobile devices has in a matter of a few years done the impossible -- crushed the PC.
Android is the new Windows.
Very un-Windows-like
Chris Dawson: Microsoft has enjoyed near-monopoly status both in the enterprise and with consumers since the introduction of Windows 3.1 over 20 years ago. The product remains entrenched and has gone through a number of mediocre revisions with lengthy development cycles until Microsoft finally delivered a highly polished and relatively secure OS with Windows 7.Android, on the other hand, has grown into the dominant mobile operating system after just five short years, relying on the efforts of the open source community and massive backing by Google. Its dominance is hardly a sure thing and certainly doesn't represent a monopoly as Apple's iOS provides serious competition and drives enormous innovation in the mobile space. In fact, the only characteristic it shares with Windows is its ability to run on commodity hardware produced by many OEMs. Rapid release cycles, community development, and open licensing models make Android very un-Windows-like.
The Rebuttal
Great Debate Moderator
Yes sir!
That's 16:00 GMT here...
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
I can hardly wait...
Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
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Posted by Jason Hiner
Great Debate Moderator
OK, first question:
The Q3 global sales figures from Gartner have Android outselling the entire PC market by a wide margin: 122 million units versus 87 million units. How significant are these numbers?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Very.
As sales shift from PC to mobile, it is driving us from a world dominated by the PC into a the post-PC era where smaller, impersonal desktop and notebook systems are giving way to more personal devices.
Dollars spent on post-PC devices are dollars not being spent on PCs, and this is putting hardware OEMs -- most of which used to look at themselves as almost exclusively 'Microsoft hardware partners' -- in an awkward position of having to carve out a new market or risk a future of uncertainty and dwindling returns.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
They're significant for the mobile market
The message is that nobody is buying feature phones anymore and are, instead, turning to smartphones. Because so many OEMs sell Android phones through every major carrier, often heavily subsidized (making them "free" or very inexpensive), it's a no-brainer that Android will have extremely strong sales. Everyone needs a phone. Not everyone needs a PC. Android tablets, with their generally low price tags (especially the Kindle Fire and Nook families and the Nexus 7) are approaching the realm of impulse buys, but remain largely entertainment-oriented consumer companion devices. Again, strong sales are no surprise here.
For a small subset of users (again, particularly among consumers), a tablet can certainly replace a PC, so there is some cannibalization of the PC market here. That said, while the PC market isn't what it used to be, it's still very strong. Real work is still largely dependent on a full-blown computer with a decent-sized screen and a full keyboard. Especially in the enterprise, users need PCs, even if those are increasingly tablet/ultrabook hybrids running Windows 8.
Bottom line, the numbers don't tell the full story of PC demand. They instead point to trends in smartphone and tablet adoption rather than "the death of the PC."Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Windows' big lead?
In terms of its overall installed based, Windows still has a big lead over mobile platforms. How much does this still matter and how long will it last?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Companion devices are the future of the PC
Right now, mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets are companion devices. They are an accessory that complements a desktop or notebook PC. People are happy juggling multiple devices. But this is likely to change.
I have no doubt that one day what we now refer to as companion devices will replace the PC, or at least change what we think of a PC. I remember when notebooks -- or laptops as they were called back then -- were looked at as companion devices because what you gained in terms of portability you lost in terms of power and versatility. Thanks to Moore's law, notebooks are now replacements for desktop systems. It won't be long until tablets are powerful enough to handle tasks that currently need a desktop or notebook system.
As tablets become more powerful, they will take over more and more of the functions that we currently turn to a desktop or notebook PC to carry out. I see the PC of the future -- and by future I'm thinking maybe five years into the future -- will be a tablet that can plug into a dock to transform it into a desktop system.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
It matters a lot.
On the consumer front, many people still rely on applications that haven't translated well to tablets. Office productivity suites and financial applications are the most important and people aren't going to be giving up Quicken, Word, or Excel anytime soon. People are increasingly comfortable turning to tablets and smartphones for entertainment, Web surfing, and communications which will continue to erode consumer PC demand, but Android devices are very much "companion devices" for most people. They are much loved, but when students need to write an essay or a small business owner needs to balance her books, they sit down to a PC.
On the enterprise front, the install base for Windows is even more important. Businesses have invested extraordinary amounts of time and money in Windows infrastructure, building out robust policy and management tools and relying heavily on Active Directory. Even the biggest cloud providers (like Google) ensure that their services integrate with Active Directory because most businesses run on Windows. Android won't be stepping in anytime soon to take over for Windows in the enterprise.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Developers, developers...
Despite representing three quarters of new mobile devices being sold in Q3, Android is in the awkward position of not being the mobile platform of choice for developers. That distinction goes to iOS, mostly because its users purchase more apps. What does this say about Android's opportunity to become the world's most prevalent computing platform?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Many opportunities...
While it is true that developers like to "follow the money," and right now, the platform of choice for pulling in the most dollars per user is iOS, the huge and rapidly expanding Android user base is one that developers snub at their peril.
It might be harder to pry money from the wallets and purses of Android users, but there are more of them out there, and that itself presents many opportunities for developers to make money out of developing for Android.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
Beyond fragmentation
The recent release of the Nexus 4 (demand for which crushed Google's Play Store on both the initial day of sales and when pre-orders for a second round of phones went live last week) shows that Google is well aware of what it must do to become as important to developers as it is to consumers. The Nexus 4 thumbs its nose at carriers (Google even left off 4G/LTE and Verizon support to bypass the fragmentation that carriers impose on the ecosystem) and is being sold at a loss (estimated at nearly $200 a handset) to get a standardized, regularly updated, powerful platform into as many hands as possible.
Application sales aside, what would you rather develop for? Hundreds of different phones and tablets running several very different versions of an operating system or 4 devices (the iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone 4, and iPhone 5) running the same OS? The answer is obviously the latter. The fragmentation has to go.
However, once the fragmentation is addressed, Android has a real advantage for developers in that it allows much deeper developer access to the OS than iOS does. SwiftKey, for example, is a hugely popular Android-only app that provides an outstanding keyboard/predictive text interface for Android. The company can't sell anything like it on iOS because Apple doesn't allow the stock keyboard to be replaced. If these sorts of advantages can be leveraged, developers will embrace Android in ways they generally haven't to date.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Windows turning tide?
With Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8, Microsoft is attempting to unify the PC, tablet, and smartphone experience. Could this eventually turn the tide and allow Windows to recapture lost ground?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Broken Windows on the gamble
While there's no doubt that Microsoft is 'attempting' to unify the PC, tablet, and smartphone experience, I would argue that it is failing miserably.
The Windows brand is one that consumers and enterprise alike associate with desktop and notebook systems, but what Microsoft has tried to do is show-horn features that work on the Windows Phone platform into a desktop operating system in the hope that this will unify the user experience and drive tablet sales.
Rather than creating a unified experience, what Microsoft has done is broken the Windows user interface on the gamble that a new user interface for Windows is what was needed to create a market for Windows-powered tablets.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
Yes, at least in the enterprise space and potentially for consumers as well.
The hardware innovation we're seeing in Windows 8 devices is compelling for consumers and IT staff looking to leverage their existing Windows infrastructure are far happier to provide tablets and phones to employees that they can easily manage with familiar existing tools.
Neither Android nor iOS will be crushed by the new approach out of Redmond. They're sexy, robust, and have massive traction among consumers and developers. However, if users can see a familiar interface regardless of the screen at which they're looking, that's certainly a powerful value add for Windows. Similarly, with the growing number of hybrids and slick, enterprise-ready tablet devices rising out of Windows 8, many users no longer need to have a PC and a tablet. Their PC *is* their tablet and vice versa. Even with the generally higher cost of Windows 8 tablet devices, that's a very attractive proposition. After all, how many devices do you really want to shove into your bag every day?Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Businesses have not warmed up to Android yet.
Many of them still prefer BlackBerry because of its security and manageability, from an enterprise perspective. And many companies that are moving away from BlackBerry smartphones are migrating to iPhone. Why is that and can Android turn it around?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Business-centric features can shift the balance.
It's easy to think that it is the consumer vote that makes or breaks a smartphone. That's not true.
Enterprise users also play a significant factor, and the right set of business-centric features can shift the balance. The success of the Samsung Galaxy S III is testament to this. This is a handset that is also getting a lot of attention from enterprise and the bring-your-own-device (BYOD) crowd thanks to enterprise-friendly features such as AuthenTec's QuickSec VPN client technology which allows users to access corporate networks when out and about.
While there's no doubt that BlackBerry is losing favor, and that iOS is currently the winner thanks to this exodus, handsets such as the Galaxy S III will no doubt be of great interest to enterprise users.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
There are several drivers for this...
...but the biggest is consumerization/user demand. Just about everyone can afford an Android phone or tablet. Yet study after study has shown that iOS device buyers are intensely loyal. Android device buyers are either geeks or buy them based on cost and availability. Many would happily switch to iOS if they could. So if the company is picking up the tab, why not demand the devices you really want?
Apple also makes it much easier for enterprises to buy their products at scale. They have enterprise sales teams, attractive leasing and financing deals, and a direct sales infrastructure that every other OEM, as well as Google, can't touch right now. There really isn't an easier way to do a mass deployment of tablets or smartphones than through Apple. Again, the Nexus 4, 7, and 10 were opening volleys in Google's march into the enterprise. Sold and updated directly by Google, these devices are advancing what Google is already doing with their Chromebooks for enterprise customers. The short answer, then, is that Android can turn this around if Google continues to step away from carriers and builds out sales structures.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Will Android tablets catch on?
Similarly, Android tablets are almost non-existent in the enterprise, where iPads are the tablets of choice and Windows 8 has a chance to capture some momentum as well. Will Android tablets catch on, and if not, will that hurt the long-term viability of Android as a ubiquitous platform?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Google must pay more attention to enterprise needs
Adoption of Android tablets by consumers will drive adoption in enterprise, thanks to increasing BYOD.
That said, Google does need to pay more attention to enterprise needs as it takes Android into the future, and also work with hardware makers -- especially the likes of Lenovo -- create the sorts of tablets that enterprise users want.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
Android tablets will catch on for a few reasons...
1) They are very aggressively priced relative to Windows and Apple offerings
2) They integrate very well with Google Apps for Business
3) They have a variety of form factors and price points that allow businesses to deploy a relatively standard platform while meeting individual employee needs and controlling costs
However, Google has far more to fear from Microsoft than from iOS. If Microsoft and its OEM partners can control costs, Windows 8 tablets and hybrids will be obvious choices for Microsoft shops. Management and application compatibility will be too good to pass up.
To compete in this space, Google must address platform fragmentation, sales channels, desirability of its devices, and a software ecosystem that can't yet compete with Apple's or Microsoft's. Unless that happens, lack of traction in the enterprise will definitely have a negative impact on Android adoption in the aggregate.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Android and Chrome OS merger?
Google continues to keep Android and Chrome OS as separate platforms, even though Google co-founder Sergey Brin has said that they are destined to merge. Do you see that they will merge and that Android will eventually power desktops and laptops? How critical is that for it to become the next Windows?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Huge danger to Microsoft
A merging of Android and Chrome OS would be a huge danger to Microsoft as it would unify smartphones, tablets, desktops, and notebooks under a single operating system because it would remove the roadblocks associated with shifting between devices.
Given that Microsoft has already tried -- and failed -- to do this, and Apple seems to be slowing doing the same with OS X and iOS, it would make sense for Google to do this, and to do it as soon as possible. If Apple does it first, and manages to pull it off, then the iPad's dominance in both the home and enterprise markets could allow it to push more notebooks and desktops into these markets, and hamper Android's chances of success.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
This is sort of the ultimate platform fragmentation, isn't it?
Both ChromeOS and Android can run on either ARM or x86 hardware and both benefit from synchronization and integration with Google's services. The Chrome browser on Android (and iOS, for that matter) is quite robust and there are great, free productivity apps for the desktop version.
Why keep them separate? It just creates confusion for consumers. Web apps versus native mobile apps? Browser? Browser OS? Mobile OS with a browser? The company would be very well-served by merging Chrome OS and Android. In fact, this will be the key to the enterprise where Chrome already has considerable traction as a fast, secure browser and Chromebooks have been selling well for companies vested in Google's ecosystem or who might have been considering mobile thin clients.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Android's biggest obstacles?
Even with its global penetration, what are the biggest obstacles Android still needs to overcome in order to continue its momentum?
Posted by Jason Hiner
The biggest obstacle facing Android is solving the upgrade challenge.
Google needs to make getting updates out to users in a timely fashion a priority, even if this means doing what Apple -- and to a lesser extent Microsoft -- has done and cutting the carriers and hardware makers out of the equation.
Current levels of operating system fragmentation is causing a lot of grief for developers, and rather than getting better, the problem seems to be getting worse with each new release.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
Two words: Branding and sales.
The innovation is there, the market share is there, the functionality is there. And yet iOS continues to carry the mind share and is perceived as the mobile OS of choice for both consumers and businesses. Android needs to have a strong, cohesive brand built around flexibility and security and shed its image as either a geek's playground or the poor-man's iPhone. With the right branding and mind share will come the developers and the enterprise customers, as well as demand from the employees who are workers by day and consumers by night.
Right now, the Android brand is badly diluted by a fragmented platform and marketing that has failed to convince users of the benefits of Android over iOS. Those that use both mobile operating systems extensively may, in fact, argue that Jelly Bean walks all over iOS in many ways, but most consumers just think Siri is way cool and Apple has a cool factor that Android can't touch.
Google absolutely also needs to nail down sales and ecommerce. So far, every direct sales launch from Mountain View (with the exception of Chromebooks) has been an unmitigated disaster. Pre- and post-sales support is virtually non-existent and enterprise sales of Android devices can only happen through a limited network of third party resellers. Although direct sales are hardly Google's MO, they're incredibly important in B2B sales.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
What are the most critical factors that could derail Android in the years ahead?
Posted by Jason Hiner
Apple and patents.
If Cupertino can come up with a cut-priced iPhone that people really want -- in other words, something a little more compelling that an old version -- then that could really derail Android. While there's no such thing as a one-size-fits-all smartphone, the iPhone is the closest we have to that. If Apple could come up with a way of shaving $100 off the price of the iPhone, that would be the biggest thing to hit the smartphone market since the iPhone, putting Android growth in jeopardy.
Patents are also a problem in that settlements with the likes of Apple are eating into hardware maker's already razor-thin profit margins. The more deals that hardware makers have to cut, the less compelling it becomes to continue to invest in Android.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
Any of these six factors...
1) Platform fragmentation and the resulting reluctance of developers to fully embrace the OS
2) Windows 8
3) Major Google privacy gaffes
4) A revolutionary enterprise-ready product line from Apple
5) Continued failures in direct sales
6) Major price drops on Apple products or big Apple patent wins that either drive up Android costs or push devices out of the market (or make it very unattractive for OEMs to produce Android devices)Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
OK, we have time for one more...
What are your predictions for the Android ecosystem over the next 24 months? And, will the enterprise get on board?
Posted by Jason Hiner
More growth.
In a little under three years Android has grown from having a four percent unit share of the market to having a commanding 72 percent unit share, crushing the likes of RIM, Windows Phone, and Nokia's Symbian platform. The only platform that has withstood Android is iOS, and it is against this challenge that Google must rise, and rise it will. While Apple has the upper hand when it comes to profits per device, Android has a better market share, and this will allow it to put pressure on Cupertino.
I also believe that enterprise users will follow over the coming 24 months. Consumer market share always seem to come before gains in the enterprise markets, and with the increasing popularity of BYOD, Android's dominant consumer market share could pay off handsomely.Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
An uphill battle for Google
With Google's current trajectory and the growing hardware/software ecosystem around Windows 8 in the enterprise, Android will continue to struggle in the business space. Some pretty significant changes in their B2B business model will be necessary for Android to catch up to iOS and fend off Windows 8. However, devices like the latest Nexus phones and tablets are very big steps in the right direction. They're fast, work very well, and can't be beat on price. They are also quite manageable from within Google Apps. They represent good deals for businesses, but Windows 8 hybrids are arguably more useful and Apple's reality distortion field is alive and well.
Chrome OS and Android will almost certainly be merged (and, in many ways, so will the Chrome browser) building a much larger developer community and we will see a continued move towards web apps that run anywhere instead of native apps for specific operating systems.
In the next two years, Android will be the de facto smartphone and tablet OS for consumers and new devices will expand their entertainment ecosystem. TVs and other consumer screens running Android will be available at such aggressive prices (especially as Google subsidizes their costs to get Google content and ads in front of more and more people) that consumers won't be able to resist them. Particularly entertainment and B2C developers and content creators will gravitate towards Android.
This is all good news for Google, but the enterprise remains the real prize. It will certainly be a real uphill battle for the company to gain ubiquity across verticals.Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Thank you Adrian and Chris for a Great Debate!
And thank you readers for joining us. Please check back tomorrow when Adrian and Chris present their closing arguments. And do make a final swing through on Thursday when I deliver my verdict.
Posted by Jason Hiner
Good questions, Jason.
Good arguments, Chris.
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
I am for Yes
Always a pleasure, gentlemen
Christopher Dawson
I am for No
Great Debate Moderator
Readers, one more thing...
Please consider subscribing to our Great Debate newsletter so you're always informed of current and upcoming debates.
Posted by Jason Hiner
Closing Statements
Android IS the new Windows
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
As we transition from the era of the PC into the post-PC era, Google's Android platform has, through a combination of luck and hard work, found itself the dominant operating system on mobile devices, and as such is in a great position to control the direction that smartphones and tablets take over the coming years.
This is not to say that there aren't challenges, the largest of which is getting upgrades to existing users, but I have no doubt that Google is working hard behind the scenes with handset makers and carriers to solve this.
In terms of sales and a grip on the future direction of the mobile market, Android IS the new Windows.
Android is NOT the new Windows
Christopher Dawson
Still, it isn't a stretch to see Android dominating in the enterprise as tablets and other mobile devices, along with greater acceptance of BYOD, become more commonplace. However, to become a truly ubiquitous computing platform, Android needs to have the cache of Apple, the enterprise tools of Windows, and outstanding brand and market differentiation.
Windows became THE platform of the PC era because of good timing, a solid ecosystem, good marketing, and a lack of competition. Android can become THE platform of the post-PC era only through high-value, incredibly innovative products. It's started down that road, but the outcome is anything but a done deal.
Android is not there yet
Jason Hiner
The growth and spread of Android is truly impressive, and we have to expect that the current sales of all these Android devices will attract more users, businesses, and third-party partners to the platform. However, Android still has some important obstacles to overcome. First and foremost, it's not the mobile platform of choice for developers. It has to win them over to be the top platform, though as Chris notes, the fact that Android allows deeper access to the system than iOS could eventually help its cause. Second, business aren't very keen on Android. They still prefer iOS and even BlackBerry to Android, for security and manageability reasons. Android must win them over as well. Android will also need to make a stronger play in tablets and computers. It's making some baby steps in tablets with the Nexus 7 and a merger with ChromeOS looks inevitable on the computer side. However, Android needs to make more progress on these platforms where people spend more time doing work. So, Android could become the next Windows, but it's certainly not there yet. It's also possible that there will not be a single dominant platform in the post-PC era and that there will inevitably be several healthy, thriving ecosystems.
Posted by Jason Hiner