Microsoft inks HP search deal; How many consumers will change the default?

Hewlett-Packard will make Microsoft's Live Search the default search engine on every consumer PC shipped in 2009 and the deal may be a hit if you assume that most folks are too lazy to change browser settings.

Can Microsoft buy its way to being a search player? The answer depends on how many consumers care about defaults and have enough energy to change them.

First, the deal. Microsoft said Monday that HP will make Live Search the default setting on every browser that comes with one of its consumers. Terms of the deal (statement, Techmeme) weren't disclosed, but the software giant called it "the most significant distribution deal for Live Search that Microsoft has ever done."

"We are very pleased to be partnering with HP to help bring Live Search to millions of consumers across North America," said Kevin Johnson, Microsoft's president of platform and services at Microsoft. As part of the deal, Microsoft will customize a Live Search toolbar for HP customers and toss in Silverlight.

Also see: Life without Google series

The big question: Will Microsoft's buy-search-market-share gambit work?

It depends. For giggles, I looked up HP's unit shipment figures from IDC. In the first quarter of 2008, HP shipped about 3.9 million PCs to the U.S. and Canada. So let's project an even 4 million a quarter for simplicity's sake for 16 million PC units from HP in 2008 in the U.S. In 2009, we'll throw out 18 million PCs as a guesstimate for U.S. shipments.

With that number sketched out, the next issue is how many folks will actually change defaults. Here's a poll:

[poll id=87]

Obviously, if no one changed the HP defaults Microsoft would be very pleased. And this audience isn't representative since you are most likely to strip away HP's crapware. But HP wouldn't be installing crapware if it didn't work. My overly optimistic hunch is that half will change the Live Search default. That means 9 million more Live Search users assuming one person per HP PC. Bottom line: Search is a commodity service in many respects and the average bear may not be able to tell much difference between Live Search and Google.

And if these HP folks conduct one search a month the deal could move the needle a little bit on market share. Is the HP deal going to close this market share gap for Microsoft?

Not a chance, but it certainly won't hurt--especially if Microsoft lands a deal with Dell too. If you can't grow your search market share you can always buy it.