Microsoft unified communications product may have slow uptake

Infonetics Research's latest Enterprise Telephony Report is out.

One prediction made by Infonetics Research analyst Matthias Machowinski is a real eye-opener. And it is not the projection that while even increasing 1% in 1Q 2007, (the first rise in six quqrters)TDM PBX phone system (as opposed to IP PBX) sales are expected to continue their overall decline, racking up a 5-year compound annual growth rate of -45% from 2006 to 2010.

Machowinski doesn't think Microsoft's OCS 2007 (Office Communcations Server) is going to have as an immediate an impact as some others say it will.

"Microsoft is launching OCS 2007 (their unified communications product), and the question on everybody’s mind is what’s the market impact? Will buyers abandon their PBXs in favor of a pure unified communications solution?

"We don’t think so, at least for the short term," he writes.

I tend to agree. The inertia of the installed base, the conservatism of some ITs toward ripping installed solutions out and the temporary disruption that causes.

And, did I say skepticism about Microsoft?

Other highlights from the report:

Overall enterprise telephony revenue is on track for another year of double-digit growth;

In 1Q07, worldwide total PBX/KTS system sales inched up 1% sequentially, and are up 8% from a year ago in 1Q06;

The overall market will total $11.9 billion in 2010;

Hybrid PBX systems represent 63% of all PBX/KTS system line shipments worldwide in 1Q07, and will increase to 72% by 2010;

The enterprise telephony market was flat in North America in 1Q07, weak in Europe, and strong in Asia Pacific;

Avaya is the market share leader for worldwide IP PBX revenue in 1Q07, followed closely by Cisco and Siemens;

Cisco maintains a strong lead in IP deskphone and IP softphone sales, accounting for almost half the units shipped worldwide in 1Q07.

No surprises on any of those.