Minority Report: Mac Tablet - to be or not to be?

That is the question… here are both sides of the debate

Will Apple release a Mac Tablet? The prognosticators are divided. Seb Janacek overhears the arguments for and against such a device.

Mr Point (P): Apple is going to release a Mac Tablet.

Mr Counterpoint (CP): No chance.

P: It's coming. They're going to announce it, I'm telling you.

CP: I'm sorry. I just can't see it.

P: C'mon, all the evidence is there. All the signs are pointing to a Mac Tablet.

CP: Signs? Are we using omens to predict new products? Burning bushes, birds' entrails… stuff like that? That's your evidence?

P: You don't need evidence when you think with your guts.

CP: The problem with thinking with your guts is that the end product is rarely passable.

P: OK, take the patents for a tablet-like device. You've seen them.

CP: Like every other company, Apple files for patents for technologies that sometimes never get beyond the conceptual level - let alone into the labs. After all, where the hell is that chameleon-skinned MacBook? Apple filed a patent for such a device years ago.

P: How about all the blogs with records of OS X-based devices with totally unknown screen resolutions? These things are in the Cupertino labs.

CP: As you well know, there are blogs all over the web with details about how to hack Intel-based computers to run OS X. For heaven's sake, Wired even ran an article on how to get Leopard running on a netbook.

And even if these devices are in the labs it doesn't necessarily mean they'll get passed across the corridor to the guys and girls in the marketing department. Remember, Steve Jobs once said that in some cases he was as proud of the products that Apple hadn't launched as the ones it had.

P: All the analysts are talking about it - and they watch the markets and the channels both of existing inventory and the raw materials.

CP: Analysts have been predicting the Mac Tablet for years.

P: Damn right.

CP: And yet here we are: sans Tablet, after all this time. Besides, they have investors they need to keep interested.

P: How about Inkwell?

CP: Ah, the handwriting recognition technology introduced by Apple in OS X 10.2, back in 2002.

P: Indeed, if Apple has no plans to launch a tablet, why develop that?

CP: If you can cast your mind back seven years, that was when you were predicting an Apple PDA replete with stylus. Besides, Jobs joked at the time that Apple had to salvage something from the Newton.

P: Well… that was seven years ago. Now the time is ripe for the coming of the Tablet.

CP: Time is an important factor. Let's talk about timing.

P: OK, the company needs a boost in the middle of a recession.

CP: True we're in recession. So what's the sensible route? Consolidate? Build on your core product areas or go out on a whim? Tablets are a commercial flop. They represent a tiny percentage of a largely diminishing global market of which Apple owns a small but increasing segment.

P: Meaning?

CP: Nobody wants tablet computers. They're awkward, ergonomically unsound and don't sell very well. And that being the case, why would a company decide to build and market a premium version of something very few people want? Any company that releases a product that is niche, luxury, commercially unsuccessful and, let's face it, rather expensive, will have taken leave of its senses.

P: Apple needs a fillip and a whole new product category could provide that.

CP: Apple's doing fine. Its stock price is starting to climb again after being in the doldrums (like just about every other stock price lately). The panic that everyone predicted would occur when Jobs stepped away from the company for an extended period hasn't materialised and the road ahead looks busy - we're expecting two new versions of OS X and probably a new iPhone by early summer. The notebooks are looking good and the desktop machines have had an overhaul.

P: Yes, yes but Apple needs something really cool to set the tech world alight.

CP: Know what I think?

Continued on page 2...

P: That Apple will never release an iPhone with a hologram interface I can control with my emotions and eyebrow gestures?

CP: Yes. But as an adjunct to that: the biggest problem Apple has right now is one of its own making. The iPhone spoilt us all. It came at a time when not just the tech media but the mainstream media were watching the company. How many product launches have been as momentous as the iPhone? Perhaps the first Mac in 1984 and the iMac in 1998?

P: How about the iPod?

CP: The iPod has gone on to great things but it had a low-key release in 2001, when Jobs unveiled it to a small audience in a small auditorium.

P: And your point, Mr Counterpoint?

CP: My point is that since 2007, the iPhone set a level of expectation for all subsequent Apple product launches which has been impossible to match. Whether you love it or hate it, the iPhone set the entire mobile industry on a new course. We're all still coming down from the rush - and expecting another huge rush is going to end in disappointment for everyone.

P: I remember the chilly evening air as I read the updates from MacWorld on 9 January 2007. "This is a day I've been looking forward to for two-and-a-half years." Isn't that what Steve said?

CP: Yep. Besides, Apple already has a tablet computer - it just happens to be called the iPod touch.

P: Pah! These things always come to pass. You'll see.

CP: Always come to pass? Whither the G5 PowerBook?

P: (silence)

CP: (cough)

P: I can't believe you brought that up.

CP: Sorry...

P: It's still a bitter pill.

CP: Well at the end, that bitter pill is the closest you'll come to a tablet from Apple, my friend.

P: Ha ha. Just wait - you'll see. You're forgetting one thing.

CP: What's that?

P: There'll always be just one more thing...