Prepare for Microsoft to inflate XP success
Windows XP is here with the predicted big bang. Although the usual frantic force of a Microsoft rollout has been muted by our national tragedy, XP is still the shining hope of Microsoft's bankroll. Microsoft's prognosticators have seen the future and it looks as grim as the New York skyline for the software giant unless it can guarantee its income from its OS and productivity software divisions. As in the past, Microsoft will go to great lengths to guarantee that the public perceptions of XP, Office Suite and Operating System are a success. And corporate America is going to help, even if it chooses not to use XP on corporate desktops.
How? It's easy once you understand the real reason behind the changes in Microsoft's licensing programs. Much has been said about how the recent licensing changes are designed to move the customers from Office 97/2000 and Windows 98/NT4.0/2000 to XP. Corporate buyers can no longer buy any prior versions of the software under any of the licensing plans--you must buy XP. Even if you intend to use Office/Windows 2000 as your primary software, you still must buy the XP license and avail yourself of the downgrade rights (if they exist in your chosen license package) to keep installing your preferred software.
Can anybody really believe that corporate America is going to install XP wholesale? Most companies are not ready for XP. The list of XP problems and questions is long and not likely to be fully answered before Service Pack 2. Under current market conditions, corporate managers are going to be cautious and deliberate in changing to an untried product. Many companies have been on an Office/Windows 2000 upgrade cycle not yet completed. Other companies have finished the upgrade cycle but use middleware programs that connect them to their 'big iron' machines, which require modifications every time a new OS or Productivity suite is installed. Reprogramming and training for a new package is time consuming, expensive and dangerous to established business processes. So the only option is to continue to install Windows 2000, which can only be purchased under an XP volume license with downgrade rights.
What do you think Microsoft is going to do with all of the statistics generated from the thousands of corporate desktops that are purchased under an XP license, but actually run older packages? It doesn't take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to figure that the number will be based on the licenses sold, regardless of the actual product corporate managers are installing. Since no one is able to purchase volume licenses of the older products, there is not going to be any tracking of actual installs against licenses sold. The advertising media will get statistics based on Microsoft's license programs and XP will be touted a rousing success.
And this number is not going to be small. If it weren't for the Microsoft forced upgrade license packages, the actual number would be quite small--too small for a success. Instead, the numbers are going to be artificially inflated. These inflated numbers are going to be used to advertise the fact that XP is the most popular and successful product Microsoft has ever produced.
What can we do about it? Not much! I can only hope the industry media will take this under advisement. Gartner and other watchdog groups will need to provide the industry with accurate and timely surveys to compare actual installations with paper ones. Microsoft has shown to what great lengths it will go to protect its income. Corporate software buyers will likewise need to go to great lengths to see the truth behind the statistics and understand the real values of the numbers given.
So, keep an eye on the Microsoft sign out front--it may say they sell millions, but not all of them are eaten or digested. And keep your antacids close by. You're going to need them to believe the success statistics as Microsoft ballyhoos XP.
Ray Bailey is an IS manager for an electronic component manufacturer in the Midwest. He is currently working on a book entitled 'The Lions, Tigers & Bears of Technology in the Church', which is designed to help working pastors manage the PC, Telecom and Presentation systems used in most churches. He is looking for input from interested contributors and can be contacted at ray@raybailey.net
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