There goes Dvorak again-telling Apple to forget the iPhone

Writing in Marketwatch yesterday, columnist John Dvorak cites several reasons why Apple should reconsider putting out the iPhone.In fact, he makes his case that Apple should just can the whole project- which will see iPhone be released in June.


Writing in Marketwatch yesterday, columnist John Dvorak cites several reasons why Apple should reconsider putting out the iPhone.

In fact, he makes his case that Apple should just can the whole project- which will see iPhone be released in June.

John makes his argument on the basis that there's just too much competition to provide healthy margins, and that with so many competitors and a fickle ownership base, so many new competitive designs will emerge in this space in such a short period of time that Apple and its iPhone will be yesterday's news within three months of issue. 

"The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough," John writes. "These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months."
 
And to those folks who argue, well, Apple has its loyalists even in the face of massive personal computer competition, Dvorak counters by writing that:
 
"There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share. And its survival in the computer business relies on good margins. Those margins cannot exist in the mobile handset business for more than 15 minutes."
 
I know some of you will react to this argument by arguing Dvorak is an out of touch curmudgeon who says thinks just to tick people off. And yes, that "15 minutes" barb of his does indeed sound "borrowed" from Andy Warhol's now over-borrowed "15 minutes of fame remark."
 
But I would rather take on Dvorak's arguments on their own turf. 
 
I don't agree with Dvorak. Apple is nimble enough to add cool features fast enough to keep up. And even with deep discounting- an inevitability of depending on carriers to sell and deploy this device throughout their networks, I've got to think some wise heads have run the numbers. Apple and AT&T aren't inexperienced enough to push something to market that won't have a sales life for sometime. 
 

 

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