When it comes to Rich Internet Apps (RIAs), is Adobe winning a one-horse race?
With all due respect to Microsoft's Silverlight and Sun's Java (well, JavaFX) -- both of which are looking to capitalize on the rising interest in Rich Internet Applications (RIAs -- basically Web sites that far surpass the capabilities HTML, Dynamic HTML, and even AJAX in terms of the richness and interactivity of their user interfaces) -- the race to become the target platform of choice for RIA developers isn't even a race. It's more like one of those exhibition boxing matches that pits the current world champion against a celebrity or celluloid champion. It's no contest.
I was reminded of this today when I saw a headline regarding the release of a beta version of the Flash 9 runtime for Linux. Somewhere in the back of my head, the news registered as just another in a string of what I considered to be "momentum news" for the Flash and AIR platforms and the vendor of both: Adobe.
Something was telling me that I had saved an RSS item regarding Flash 9's market penetration and, using the newly installed search feature in Google's Reader, I found it. As it turned out, it was my fellow ZDNet blogger Ryan Stewart who had written about how the Flash 9 player had reached 90 percent market penetration. In terms of sheer numbers -- given the way that crosses a variety of platforms (Windows, Mac) -- I can't help but wonder if that's actually more than the number of active copies of Windows out there right now. 90 percent (now 93.3 percent according to Adobe's Web site) is simply extraordinary.
Just as big as a problem for would-be competitors to Flash is the choice that developers both very small and very large are making when it comes to picking a platform for their RIAs. Not surprisingly, given its penetration, Flash (and to a lesser-but-growing extent AIR) is the go-to platform. For example, when eBay today released its RIA-driven user interface (previously codenamed San Dimas) for general distribution, it picked the Adobe Integrated Runtime (AIR: an RIA runtime that, in addition to Flash, also supports HTML, DHTML, and AJAX-based Web-page development). AOL picked AIR as well for its Top 100 Videos application. And two weeks ago, when Google rolled out Google Gadget Ads, what platform do you think it picked? Flash. In fact, it's hard to find an interactive ad that isn't based on Flash.
Further down the food chain, major consumer goods companies are going with Flash as well. For example, the minute you start shopping on Nike.com, you're dropped into a Flash-based environment that you never leave until you leave Nike.com altogether. From beginning-to-end, the entire experience from browsing to checkout and payment is based on Flash.
Over on the startup end of the equation are outfits like Sapotek. Seen in a blog and video I published earlier today, Sapotek's Desktoptwo browser-based desktop operating system replete with graphical user interface is based on Flash. Then there is (or was) Virtual Ubiquity, a company that built an entire word processor (Buzzword) in Flash. So innovative was the online service that Adobe acquired the company (perhaps a sign that it will be assembling its own Web-based MS-Office killer -- one with a user interface that's a bit richer than most of what's available from the likes of Google, Thinkfree, and Zoho). Perhaps Sapotek is next on Adobe's shopping list (particularly since productivity apps are about the only things it Sapotek doesn't develop). Regardless, the message to developers and startups is that building something really cool in Flash or AIR could get you acquired.
In addition to coming up with the AIR platform, Adobe isn't standing still on other important foundational elements for great RIAs. With video playing such a key role in RIA interactivity, Adobe added support for H.264 video to the Flash runtime. If you're an ordinary Internet user, this might not matter to you. But if you're a software developer or a content (Web site) developer, H.264 support means that Flash-based applications can now benefit from what is arguably the best blend of quality and performance (or, what some might refer to as the best combination of compromises) for the Web-based delivery of video.
In terms of tangibles, that means that content developers can redo their video in H.264 (which supports HD) and it will playback in their existing Web-based media players without having to change anything else (well, to the extent that you might move to a 16:9 format, you might have to change the layout of your player). In terms of relevance, making it dirt simple to deliver H.264 video to an audience because the underlying platform already has 90 percent+ market penetration will simply make the Flash platform that much more attractive to software and content developers.
And, as if all this anecdotal data isn't enough to convince you that Adobe is running away with this one-horse race, then perhaps its performance on Wall Street, where last month, the company outperformed expectations with record setting revenue (a bit of a rarity these days) will. Right now, it seems as though the company is making all the right moves one of which is obviously to move the base of Flash users to the more robust AIR platform. About the only bad news for Flash has been its exclusion from Apple's iPhone Meanwhile, Adobe announced Flash Lite 3 -- a version of Flash targeted specifically at handsets that can playback animations created for Flash 8 as well as FLV-based video.
In the meantime, while Adobe looks to move Flash users to AIR, Microsoft and Sun have to figure out how to catch up to Flash alone. The question is, between Microsoft's financial muscle (and commanding control of the desktop OS as a distribution channel) and the penetration of Sun's Java in the mobile space (where the number of units greatly exceeds the total number of PCs in the world), does either stand a chance of putting a dent in Adobe's momentum?