Larry Dignan just posted thecapturing smartphone market share for 2012 and I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts. As you can see in the results, Android continued to roll, iOS remained flat and successful, BlackBerry dropped significantly, and Windows Phone had a small 1 percent jump.
Larry asked about the chances for BlackBerry and Microsoft to garner momentum. BlackBerry basically took the year off in 2012 so it was no surprise to see them lose almost 5 percent of the market share; but they still remain in third place. With the release of BlackBerry 10 and solid Z10 and Q10 hardware, I believe we will see a BlackBerry come back in 2013.
BlackBerry has a compelling enterprise story to tell with their BES 10 support and BlackBerry Balance; if they can get government agencies and large corporations to continue using BlackBerry while bringing in new customers, they even have the potential to surpass iOS in a couple of years.
They also have a compelling consumer story with a fresh UI and features that makeon a BlackBerry. iOS went from 0 percent to 15 percent rather rapidly. As I hear more and more people say they are bored with iOS, there is an opportunity for someone to come in and fire up the market again.
One the other hand, while Windows Phone 8 is an updated platform, it is not a new platform -- and looks nearly the same as Windows Phone 7. Microsoft has been selling Windows Phone 7 devices for over two years now and it is still not grabbing the attention of consumers or the enterprise. Windows Phone relies onfor the limited share they have. Even though I am a fan of Windows Phone, I don't think they ever will move ahead of BlackBerry into that third spot.