Top 10 things Apple could announce at Macworld Expo
Summary: It's that time of year again, time to dust off the crystal ball and prognosticate about what Apple has in store for us at the big January love-in at Moscone.
It's that time of year again, time to dust off the crystal ball and prognosticate about what Apple has in store for us at the big January love-in at Moscone. Macworld Expo opens in San Francisco in less than two weeks and predicting Expo announcements has become nothing short of a sport. So before you lay your money down for that shiny new computer, here are Jason the Greek's Vegas odds on Steve Jobs announcements for The Big Dance.
10. Mac OS X 10.5. Leopard will be Apple's sixth major release of Mac OS X. CEO Steve Jobs stated during his WWDC keynote speech on June 6, 2005 that "We intend to release Leopard at the end of 2006 or early 2007." Since it's less than a year after Tiger's release on April 29, 2005 it's not likely we'll see it at Macworld Expo. Look for a Leopard preview at WWDC 2006 sometime in June. Odds: 100-1.
9. Intel PowerBook. The PowerBook everyone is waiting for will be powered by a dual-core Intel "Yonah" processor and will feature a built-in iSight camera. Apple has recruited a bunch of former Sony VAIO engineers for the project and the PowerBook successor is rumored to be 20-25 percent thinner. Hopefully it'll be the PowerBook nano I've been dreaming of. Unfortunately, it's not likely as the pro software (Final Cut, Creative Suite, etc.) isn't universal binary yet. Rosetta emulation isn't fun folks. Odds: 50-1.
8. iWork '06. Apple's productivity suite will get upgrades to Pages and Keynote with the possible addition of a modern Office-killing spreadsheet application (rumored to be called "Numbers" or "Sheets"). If it reads and writes Excel files the Apple spreadsheet will be the final nail is Microsoft Office's coffin. Microsoft will waste no time in announcing the end of support for Office for the Mac if this happens. It would be great if Apple also bundled FileMaker pro or a spinoff application called iBase (like they did with Logic > Garageband and Final Cut > iMovie). Apple should also make Pages into more of a true word processor and move all the DTP features to a separate application called iLayout - just to keep Quark and AdobeMedia on their toes. Bonus points if Apple were to release pro versions of Mail and iCal. Odds: 25-1.
7. iLife '06. iLife '06 will see updates to its core apps (iPhoto, iMovie HD, iDVD, GarageBand and iTunes) and the addition of PhotoBooth and Front Row that will work with all Macs. iBlog could be acquired from Lifli Software and upgraded to publish to all major blog platforms including Blogger, Movable Type and WordPress (in addition to iDisk.) Apple could replace TiVO and your cable company's DVR in one fell swoop with iDVR. Several new applications are being bandied about as potential additions to the suite, including: Animator, Site Builder and Podcaster. Odds: 10-1.
6. Bluetooth remote control. The new BT remote will work with Front Row 2.0 on all Macs. A Radio Frequency (RF) remote is also possible, but it will require a USB receiver for the Mac which is a buzz kill. Odds: 5-1 on RF, 3-1 on BT.
5. Price Increases for iTunes. The iTunes Music Store will succumb to pressure from the music labels and the decline in online music sales and move its pricing model to a sliding scale. Less popular songs will start as low as US$0.19 while new releases will jump to US$1.99. A compromise by the labels will leave album prices at US$9.99 with the possible addition of lyrics. Odds: 10-1.
4. AirPort Ultra. This is a new portable AirPort base station with video. Bundled with a new application called AirTV you'll be able to stream video to your TV - in High Definition. It'll be bigger than the Express to accommodate the built-in HDMI connector and will sell for US$199. The upgraded AirTunes 2.0 software will allow you to stream any audio to it (not just iTunes), allow streaming to multiple Ultras at once and simultaneous playthrough on the computer speakers. Bonus: If you have an iSight camera or microphone it doubles as an intercom system. Odds: 10-1
3. 1GB iPod nano. The iPod shuffle has been sold out for weeks and Apple could release a larger 2GB version, but they're more likely to euthanize the shuffle (like they did with the iPod mini) in favor of a 1GB nano. For only US$159 (US$30 more than the 1GB shuffle) you get a color screen and a dock connector. Apple will also add video support to the nano line via a firmware upgrade to boost sales of TV shows and video content. Odds: 3-2.
2. Intel Mac mini. It's no secret that Apple's moving into the living room and the Mac mini is the perfect platform to do it with. Apple could replace TiVO and your cable company's DVR in one fell swoop with Apple-ized DVR software (see iLife '06). Apple will also add a built-in iPod dock, a dual-layer DVD drive and Front Row 2.0 (see iLife 06) to the Intel-based Mac mini, code-named Kaleidoscope. Odds: Even money.
1. Widescreen Intel iBook. The first portable Intel Macs will be iBooks based on Intel's new Yonah chipset featuring a new 65nm process that's 70 percent smaller than the Centrino processor. Dynamic Power Coordination will allow Yonah's two cores to be controlled independently making it sip batteries slowly. The new IBook (capital "I") will feature a dual-core Yonah processor in the 1.5 to 2.0GHz range with a 667MHz front side bus. The new IBooks will ship in a single 13.3-inch widescreen (possibly High-Def) configuration. Don't be surprised if this IBook is the first to ship without a FireWire port.
Chime in with your predictions on Apple's announcements for Macworld Expo 2006 in the TalkBack section below before Steve's keynote address on January 10 - for full bragging rights. I'll be back on January 9 with a series of Macworld-week installments.
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Talkback
Forgot One: Wireless BT Headphones
http://www.powerpage.org/archives/2005/12/leak_is_in_the_air_bluetooth_headphones_1.html
There's a lot of buzz about Apple releasing wireless BT headphones or even an iPod with Bluetooth. Personally I think that the sound quality would be poor and that it would diminish the iPod experience. I get static on my Treo 650's BT headset if I'm more than about four feet away from it.
Anyone else have an opinion on Bluetooth headphones and iPods?
- Jason
bt headphones
maybe have it where you could tune in to others ipods? commuting to work on a train w/ 10 other ipods, just pick a station?...
but the only draw back is, no one would know you had an ipod if they didn't see cords coming down from those two white HEARING AIDS in your ear...
but still, that'd be cool to not have to mess around w/ the cables (if the quality didn't diminish)
Two downsides of Bluetooth
1) Sound quality. Most BT headsets are just passable and start to fade when you get more than 5 feet away. this is tolerable b/c you're on a cell phone. i don't think that people will have this level of patience with thier high fidelity music.
2) Power-consumption. My mobile phone gets about half the battery life when BT is on and used frequently. Can you imagine the complaints about a BT iPod's battery?
- Jason
BT Headphones
iBook first?
Lower end machines first
Intel chips will be the lower end, consumer models. I think they're
waiting for better chips from Intel for the workhorse machines, and
also for application writers to finish up their Intel versions of the
higher end software.
who says?
will go Intel first. I am certainly aware of speculation on that point,
but can you point to any official Apple statement to that effect?
And no, Steve Jobs did not say anything of the sort at WWDC.
iBook first b/c of software
The IBook (capital "I") buys Apple some time to get the Universal Binary versions ready.
C'mon Adobe! Develop!
- Jason
it won't be the iBook...
O'Grady. It will in fact be the smallest PowerBook that gets the
first Intel mobile treatment...allow me to make a case.
First, I point to the release of the nano. For the weeks leading up
to the release event the rumor mill was full of information about
the 'new' mini. The rumors said that Apple was going to convert
the mini to a flash based player with a color screen in a smaller
form factor. All accurate predictions, but mistakenly applied to
the mini instead of pointed to a new product. Instead, we had
the death of the mini altogether and the introduction of the
nano.
Fast forward a few months to the rumors of the first Intel Mac.
The rumor mill has again been buzzing with comments about
the new 13.3" widescreen iBook. It all makes sense - the
addition of a widescreen display, the new Intel achitecture -
except this is an iBook. In addition to the rumors above, there is
one rumor that has been neglected and not factored into these
predictions. The rumor involves the discontinuation of the 12"
PowerBook. Several sites, including AppleInsider and ThinkSecret
have reported on this possibility. Still with me?
I postulate that Apple will release a 13.3" widescreen PowerBook
to replace the existing 12" model in the current line. In addition,
they will announce the release schedule for the new 15" and 17"
models (to appear some time in the next few months).
Think about it...a 13.3" widescreen would be approximately the
same size as the current 12" model with a more rectangular
form factor. Cramming a Yonah chipset into the smallest
enclosure would be the first step in revamping the whole line...a
way to demostrate how well Apple can accommodate the new
Intel technology. Add to this the fact that the PowerBook line
hasn't changed significantly over the last 2+ years and this move
becomes that much more obvious.
As for application development, the smallest PowerBook is
targeted at the mobile professional, not the graphic designers or
other power users who need a robust system to run the Adobe/
Macromedia suites.
Given the facts, the rumors, and the recent release events, I'm
amazed that more people haven't come to this conclusion. Is
anyone with me?
I'm with you
And, I like your thoughts on what most concerns the mobile traveler and therefore what the first machine will be. Where I work, the lightest, hottest (not temp) form factor that can run the OS that you deem necessary, takes the cake.
i dont care if they call it iBook or Powerbook
I'm drinking this cool aid
It just does not make any sense for a large consumer electronics company to bring out a new class of electronic in the low-end range first. Think about the digital cameras market. When, say Nikon, wants to bring out some new breakthrough technology like a 50 Mega pixel camera, do they bring it out in the low-end (read: high volume, low margin) consumer range (like the iBook in Apple world), or do they bring it out in the high-end (read: low volume, high margin) professional range (like the PowerBook in Apple world)? They ALWAYS bring out the high-end model first. This has better margins which helps amortise investment, which frees up more money to develop the consumer models, which if based on a successful pro-sumer model, will blow the market away and make the company a zillion dollars.
Lower volume/higher margin objects expose the company to lower overall risk. If the high-end (PowerBook) model tanks, they can discount it and people will still buy them and Apple aren't left with stale, unsellable inventory (they've made that mistake before, they wont do it again). If it's a winner, you just end up with longer delivery times, which everyone is used to with Apple products anyway. Use this success and release a cheaper, slower (single core maybe) iBook 3-4 months later to appease the masses.
Consider also that it also makes no sense to bring out a dual core Mactel iBook thingy that would out-perform the existing PowerBooks. You would just kill your PowerBook market immediately. They're not going to cannibalize the existing PowerBook market by bringing out a better iBook. Apple take risks, but they aren't stupid.
Also, it's not called the _Power_Book for nothing you know. How would Apple market the new laptops if they had dual core CPU's that were faster that the existing PowerBooks, but sold at lower price point?
And finally, if this machine can either dual-boot to a Windows OS (which, let's face it is the dominant business OS), or, even better, switch on the fly (which some people are suggesting), then this machine makes the perfect cross purpose machine for business people/developers/engineers (to name a few professions who frequently have to have the latest and greatest laptops) who need an MS (or even Linux) OS at work, but want an Apple OS at home. Businesses will finally start opening up their wallets for Apple hardware! (Read: Increase Market Share!)
This functionality is probably not that desirable for iBook type buying people, who are more concerned about the bottom line and don't buy laptops that often.
Is anyone with with me one this?
Lots of sources reported it
http://news.com.com/Apple+to+ditch+IBM,+switch+to+Intel+chips/2100-1006_3-5731398.html
Apple plans to move lower-end computers such as the Mac Mini to Intel chips in mid-2006 and higher-end models such as the Power Mac in mid-2007, sources said.
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1884611,00.asp
Many took the statement to mean it would begin moving over its consumer products and notebooks first, followed later by its Power Mac desktop line for professionals.
http://www.macnn.com/articles/05/12/12/first.macs.to.intel/
The analyst also updated his predictions on the first Intel Macs, saying that the iBook, PowerBook, Xserve, and Mac mini will likely be the first models to move to Intel because they are "weaker members" of Apple's product line that "would benefit moving to Intel."
still waiting
the first Intel Macs will be the low end. I'm still waiting for evidence
that Apple has "long maintained" this fact.
The third link contradicts what you say by declaring PowerBooks
and Xserves among the first Intel-based Macs.
Where do you think those "sources" come from?
but nearly every story about the Intel switch since it happened has
mentioned this.
Pedantry is never pretty.
The Software
time to get their apps into universal binary mode. The
professionals are not going to like using Rosetta and they most
likely are not using iBooks and Mac minis anyway, so it's better to
have the consumer using those on Intel first because the smaller
consumer apps are going to run fine under Rosetta and smaller
consumer apps will likely be ported over to universal binaries
quicker than the big pro apps.
iBook faster than PowerBook?!
I doubt it.
13.3" iBook, it's probably not going to be much faster (if at all)
than your 15" PowerBook. Just because it's a 2.0+ GHz Intel chip
doesn't mean it's gonna out perform a 15" 1.67 GHz PowerBook.
Note that Apple didn't update the 12" PowerBook this last time
around, so my guess would be that they come out with the 13.3"
iBook (and no larger iBooks), stop selling the 12" PowerBook,
and come out with faster PowerBooks down the line.
Of course, all this goes right out the window should Apple redo
their product matrix, rename all their products, etc. I remember
when Apple came up with the original 2x2 matrix of iBook,
PowerBook, iMac, PowerMac. Think if they did that all over again
with completely redesigned and renamed products.
Mmmmmm....nummy Apple hype. :D
Yonah is fast
doesn't mean it's gonna out perform a 15" 1.67 GHz PowerBook."
Yes, actually it does. Even the slowest 1.6GHz single-core Yonah
would probably outperform the fastest PowerBook today, and any
of the other Yonahs wouldn't even be in the same ballpark.
Two comments
out, then doesn't that mean that you'd also need prediction
number 10 to come true as well (a new version of OSX)? What
OS are these Intel Macs going to run?
2) Airport Ultra would be lovely, if only for fixing the major,
major flaws that Apple has ignored for the last two years in their
Airport Express product, which hasn't been updated a single
time since its release. The issues are 1) inability to stream to
more than one system at a time--let's say you have a stereo in
the living room and one in the den, and you want to have the
same music wirelessly playing in both rooms at the same time.
That's not possible with Apple's gear. 2) constant dropouts. Go
read the Apple discussion boards, users are highly annoyed by
the near constant dropouts that happen when using Airport
Express to stream music. Songs just stop randomly, and Apple
has refused to address the problem.