Can Microsoft change 'gears' for the sea-change ahead?

Can Microsoft change 'gears' for the sea-change ahead?

Summary: For the last year, I have endured ridicule, insults, and criticism for talking about the potential of a well-funded competitor like Google, let alone the collective potential of countless other smaller innovators, to prove the viability (and even the supremacy) of Web-based applications over their 'locally run' competition such as Microsoft Office. The so-called 'offline problem' (the one where the apps and data become unavailable do to loss of connectivity..

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For the last year, I have endured ridicule, insults, and criticism for talking about the potential of a well-funded competitor like Google, let alone the collective potential of countless other smaller innovators, to prove the viability (and even the supremacy) of Web-based applications over their 'locally run' competition such as Microsoft Office. The so-called 'offline problem' (the one where the apps and data become unavailable do to loss of connectivity.. be it happenstance or because you're just somewhere like a plane where connectivity doesn't exist) has invariably been the sanctuary for these critics.

During that time, I have drawn attention to the work being done with JavaDB and Derby as examples of how the offline problem might get solved. But, ultimately, I have routinely said that when the problem gets solved, it will get solved by Google. Last week, with Google's announcement of Google Gears, that day came.

To be clear, Google Gears is pure beta right now. Google has said as much and it's not like all the Web apps out there including Google's are suddenly able to work offline. They're not. In fact, only one Google application -- a prime candidate at that: Google Reader -- gets to try out the new Gears first. But others, including Web apps from third parties are certain to follow. Google Gears is targeted directly at the developers of those apps and to the extent that they embrace Gears for their own offerings and find it (them?) to be sorely lacking, the technology's open source nature means that those developers are free to join the "Gears" community in an effort to collectively overcome those shortcomings.

Google is proving to the naysayers that they can run, but they can't hide. For the last year, the reason it wouldn't work was the offline problem. With a huge chunk now removed from that barrier (the rest, just as important, will be chipped away over time), the critics will no doubt seek sanctuary (or is it ill-found comfort) in the other advantages that some desktop applications currently enjoy over their online counterparts. The security one (of storing sensitive data outside the firewall) is another routine comeback (just tell that to Marc Benioff, personal custodian of customer data, aka life-blood, to some of the world's largest enterprises).

In fairness to desktop software providers, the Web apps whose desktop-like interactivity is often driven by the AJAX style of Javascript programming often lack the performance and grace of their long entrenched desktop competitors. That said, let's not forget that the incumbent desktop applications (including spreadsheets) got a 25-year head start. If you're judging the future of Web apps on the basis of their inability to ameliorate that head start out of the gate, you're just not thinking very clearly. Look at how rapidly the gap has closed in just a couple of years. To suggest that Web apps can't close the gaps that remain is mad. It's just a matter of time.

I'm not done yet.

In last week's report on Google Gears, I wrote "companies such as Microsoft may have their hands forced in terms of reconsidering everything from the architecture behind their existing solutions portfolios to the licensing costs for those solutions." What did I mean by that?

As much as I was sure that Google was going to be the company that solved the offline problem, Microsoft no doubt has its own Web apps near their battle stations. That's my educated guess. If it doesn't, then the proverbial "train from Redmond" that for two decades caused other software companies to shudder in their boots will end up in a trainwreck. Right now, some number of you are saying Microsoft? Trainwreck? What is Berlind smoking? (or what stock does he own?). But this isn't just about the ever closing functionality gap between Web apps and desktop apps. It's about Google's entirely different way of dealing with an organization's information technology needs.

Hear me out on this.

For decades, we've been taught by the vendor community that we should compartmentalize our business thinking into categories that map well to their categories of solutions. While I'd rather not single out Microsoft, it's really the classic example. If you need to create and print different kinds of documents (what business doesn't?), you get something like Microsoft Office. If you want to collaborate with others over those documents (what business doesn't?), you buy or subscribe to a Sharepoint server. If you need a Web presence (what business doesn't?), you set up a Web server (or find someone else who will host it for you). Microsoft would prefer this be its Internet Information Services server.

If you're someone who runs a business, before you know it, you're managing all sorts of products running on all sorts of operating systems (desktop and server). With weekly security updates, annual service packs, less frequent upgrades, all sorts of crazy showstoppers that turn into mini-sink holes of time and money, vendors will tell you it's not nearly the management and expense nightmare that it really is, especially if you buy into their management solutions. Yes, so complex are the "on-premises" solutions that you have to buy other management products just to keep the infrastructure from having a heart attack.

Are we incapable of looking in from the outside and asking if there's a better way?

Google has clearly asked this question. Google Apps as a bundle of applications may be immature, but it's unquestionably a stake in the ground: one that says there's a better way to think about information technology provisioning and use. Take collaboration over a spreadsheet for example. In the Google App world, the way you collaborate with others over a spreadsheet is, you go to your browser, open the spreadsheet, click on share and invite collaborators by their e-mail addresses. Within seconds, two or more collaborators can not only be looking at the same spreadsheet you are, but doing so in a fashion where, as the contents of the cells are being changed by one collaborator, the others are seeing those changes on their screens only seconds later. It's very slick, if you haven't seen it.

"So what" you say? "David, that story has been written so many times." Sure. The cool functionality of Google Docs and Google Spreadsheets has been chronicled to death. But let's look at it in terms of friction and business. Whereas the prerequisite to reaching a collaborative state with others in the Google Apps world is a browser (just about any browser, on any device will do), just try to reach that same collaborative state in the Microsoft world. Relatively speaking, that prerequisite is like a playbook with the word "FRICTION" plastered on the front.

It's not that Microsoft's solutions don't get the job done, or that they haven't gotten the job done better than others for the last decade. It's just that with many incremental improvements (the ability to collaborate for example) came a non-incremental increase in friction to make it work. Meanwhile, Google went in completely the opposite direction. For example, for any business or organization starting from scratch, there's less friction involved in running a Google-based spreadsheet that involves collaboration than there is in running a desktop spreadsheet that doesn't. That's not just a benchmark. It's a tea leaf.

What it has done in terms of taking the friction out of collaborative productivity applications barely scratches the surface when it comes to how Google is thinking about the frictionless provisioning and usage of information technology as a whole.

Let's throw Web site hosting into the mix. Whenever I'm talking about Google Apps with others not familiar with the offering, they are stunned to learn that it includes Web site hosting for no additional cost (bear in mind, in the case of the standard edition of Google Apps, there's no initial cost either: it's free). Going back to the basic needs of any business, running a Web site ranks right up there with being able to create and collaborate over documents.

In the Google world, Web site hosting is just something that organizations (businesses, non-profits, even families) fundamentally need and that should be both provisioned and integrated with the rest of the IT utility. This is strikingly different from the shrink-wrapped software approach where you buy one solution for one set of problems (documents) and another solution for another set of problems (Web site hosting) and so on and so on.

Not grokking this yet? You want to talk about friction? Let's talk about e-mail. How many business owners do you know that derive great pleasure out of running their own e-mail systems. In the same fashion that Google has taken the friction out of getting up and running with collaborative documents and Web site hosting (one day, I'm sure the two will be frictionlessly integral to each other), Google will also let you run your e-mail domain on top of its GMail service. Here, Google could do more to make it easier to set up. But part of the problem is that a third party -- your domain registrar -- must get involved and, provided you're using a reputable registrar, only you can muck around with your domain settings (not always for the weak at heart).

Can GMail suffice as a Microsoft Exchange replacement for everybody? Doubtful. A lot of companies for example can't fathom the idea of their e-mail systems being outside the corporate firewall. But more importantly, it's not about how GMail as an e-mail server service compares to Exchange. It's once again how Google is thinking when it comes to providing information technology to businesses as though it were one single utility and not a bunch of discreetly separate SKUs. The more I share this observation with business owners, the more I see heads nodding up and down as though they're saying "Finally! It sounds like someone understands my pain."

In fact, some of the people to whom I've described this approach begin to fantasize that all the time they spend wrestling with their technology (a part of which involves figuring out what solutions to buy to solve what problems) could be spent on making their businesses successful instead. Novel idea, isn't it?

Down the road, my expectation is that the portfolio of services that get wrapped into Google Apps will not only grow, but grow with the idea of addressing real pain points. For example, it's not hard to imagine Google's PayPal-like Checkout service joining the Google Apps portfolio in a way that makes child's play out of selling product and transacting through a Google hosted-Web site (using Web pages that were built and published directly out of Google Docs).

Lest you think this is a story about how Google will trounce Microsoft, it isn't that at all. There are other smaller companies out there who have or will soon be breaking the pain point code too. They grok the idea that customers shouldn't have to buy one product to do X and another to do Y and that from one "solution" to the next, it's a continuum rather than a set of shrink-wrapped boundaries that can only be crossed through purchasing and integration.

Meanwhile, while Microsoft's legacy -- largely defined by the very shrink-wrapped boundaries that Google and others are breaking down -- may appear to be the proverbial noose around the neck that could impede that company's ability to participate in a differently structured world, let's not forget that we're still talking about Microsoft. With billions of dollars in cash, some of the best talent on the planet, and an heir to the throne (Ray Ozzie) that understands the new world as well (if not better) as anybody, betting on Microsoft's ability to change gears when it has to is a pretty sure bet.

Topics: Apps, Browser, Collaboration, Google, Hardware, Microsoft, Software

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43 comments
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  • So many good points, I don't know where to start!! Gears has changed the

    game. And, though it is beta, I am sure it will develop quickly into a V1.0 quality product. Given the some of the major portions like SQLite and the basic Java Script are already battle tested, it should not take long.

    But, really, the brilliance with Gears is the simplicity of converting existing sites over to off-line capable. Sites could convert in a matter of weeks for simple applications, maybe months for more complicated applications. But, by giving this out as open source, many will have the apps ready go go when Gears is V1.0.

    And, one thing many ignore here is that Gears solves a whole lot more than the off-line problem. It also will greatly enhance performance while online and almost eliminate the effects of slow / flaky connections in many cases. But, this is not all about the customer experience, it will ALSO reduce the load that the application puts on the server. If the data is cached locally, the server will spend a whole lot less time re-sending the data for every refresh. So, websites will have multiple reasons to implement this technology.
    DonnieBoy
  • On the current state of the Google word processor. To format things for

    final printing printing, I often need to download and use OpenOffice to do the final formating. As printing becomes less common, and Google adds features, that may go away to a certain extent.

    I do find the lack of features to be very good for collaboration though, without all the formatting features in the way, people focus more on the important issues like the text content, and the figures.

    Another thing, currently, with equations, I need to create a document in OpenOffice with all of the equations I need (the OpenOffice equation editor is second to none), then upload the document to Google Docs. The equations are then converted to images, and I can cut/past. Hopefully, Google will eventually have an equation editor. Heck, they could use the OpenOffice code to generate them.
    DonnieBoy
  • Ah-OOOOO-gah! Ah-OOOOO-gah!

    Flames incoming!
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    • I think Balmer and Gates are dumbfounded and are having a hard time comming

      up with decent posts for NoAxe and LoverBoy. Maybe they are just thinking it is better to stay out of this one since they don't have any good arguments.
      DonnieBoy
      • Why start now?

        [i]Maybe they are just thinking it is better to stay out of this one since they don't have any good arguments.[/i]

        Which raises the question, "what caused [b]that[/b]?"
        Yagotta B. Kidding
        • It is just that Gears is a really good idea, it is an evolutionary approach

          that will allow everybody to reuse existing code, with minor changes for the off-line features.

          Microsoft's solution is very revolutionary, in that it will require complete re-writes and is MS only. Also, with the growing number of desktops on alternative platforms, there are fewer and fewer companies willing to do MS only solutions.

          But, yes, not having a good argument has not stopped them before. Maybe they are just too depressed about this??
          DonnieBoy
          • Not likely

            That's interesting, my firm doesn't see that at all. We see many more firms moving to .Net than we really expected. This includes self labelled 'java only' giants like Goldman and Lehman, but also the really small guys as well.

            To be clear, Java is king in the grid world where mass is important and in some database environments where .net doesn't run. However we see enmasse migrations to (or adoptions of) .net on the desktop and on the web/app tiers including some frankly unexpected early adoptions of WCF and WPF at some unlikely places.

            Anyway my take ...

            In any case, MS is unlikely to let this fly by. People will demand web based apps that can run in local mode for sure (once they get a looksie at GEARS), but as long as Linux is dead on the desktop people will adopt MS' standard because already having machinery on the desktop and MS server infrastructure in-house means easier adoption.
            crypt2121
  • Thinking ahead to Gears 2, we need a new programming language. What should

    that be? Python, Java, Ruby?

    I think that Java should eventually be one of the options, but probably Python as well.
    DonnieBoy
    • What is with you and Ruby?

      You need to get with the brain trust over at Google and explain to them why they need to rewrite their runtime so it runs languages that you like (or know, is probably more like it). The ydo like python over at google, so you never know.

      They have a runtime that is under 800k and uses an already rich, standardized, (fairly) secure, OO language with thousands of widgets, frameworks and applications that ALREADY work on the Gears runtime. The only thing I can see that JS is really lacking is the use of classes.

      Besides... Python is 10 meg - Ruby is 22 megs and Java is what? 10-20 megs? And there are serious security issues with languages that have access to the system level.

      And what is this "We" business? Are you in some sort of club with the Google developers? ;)
      Duke E. Love
  • Siverlight is like when IBM tried to push Microchannel.

    And the industry stayed with the ISA bus, and enhanced it. Microchannel died a slow death until IBM had to pull it. Free and open, evolutionary standards will win out here too.
    DonnieBoy
    • Actually ...

      Despite IBM's licensing misteps, Microchannel remained a viable technology for a number of years in non-PC-products from IBM. EISA never outperformed Microchannel but in the end was itself displaced by superior technology. Whether proprietary or not though, without wide multi-vendor buy-in and adoption, even superior technology will not survive. (Remember BetaMAX?)
      M Wagner
  • Itsw compatibility

    All great points about Google Apps and Gears but... Its all about compatibility. For many companies and individuals if they are not MS Word compatible its not interesting.
    kdjkdj@...
    • Google apps do read and write MS Office formats, but, we are moving away

      from printed documents. The functionality of Google apps will be continuously improving, but there is no desire to completely replicate the three headed MS Office monster. Google apps will evolve towards the new paradigm of online sharing, and away from the printed document format. I personally hate working in an environment where it is continually trying to format things for printing, and even shows you paper margins on the screen.
      DonnieBoy
      • who's we?

        "we" are moving away from printed documents? Spend any time in the business world?

        The paperless office is a myth, and will be for a long time to come.
        rtk
    • Not Just Printing

      You are right, people often forget that there are many different sides to the compatability issue:
      - File Formats
      - WYSIWYG and
      - User Interface

      ... all play a part.

      If the new on-line services (apps) can't open and edit older file formats then you lose:
      - Archives
      - Program interfaces - which loses you business functions
      - Sharing capabilities and
      - A simple migration path.

      Just take one of these, say Archives. The direct cost of not being able to access old information, even though it is generally only needed rarely, could easily dwarf the costs of asking IT to role out a new app. The indirect costs (such as consequential losses) are potentially life threatening - both in terms of real people being really injured, and in terms of organisations political, economic, and commercial viability.

      Microsoft and Adobe are the classic cases when considering different takes on What You See Is What You Get (WYSIWYG). That is; one took the view that you would want to get the best result from your printer - so formats what you see on screen according to your hardware setup. The other took the view that if the Author wanted the first four paragraphs on the first page then the easiest way to achieve that objective is to match the required output to the hardware by treating the text on the page as a photograph - to be blown up, or shrunk, to fit.

      Of course Microsoft's traditional, hardware-centric, view means that WYSIWYG is inconsistent across the MS installed base. But adding to the problem will not win Google, or any other competitor, many new friends.

      But the killer - because there can be no simple answer - is the User Interface compatability problem. To most people, and I include myself here - even though I started using word processors in the time before the IBM PC, is the time it takes to learn a new program. In business this is a big cost - as those of us who witnessed the Wordperfect vs. Word battle well remember. Overcoming this kind of market inertia is a major part of what keeps Microsoft, Oracle, and others where they are.
      Stephen Wheeler
  • So desktop software wins out after all

    Ironic how everyone expounds on the virtues of web software, and then Google creates a platform to synchronize web software to the desktop for improved performance and offline use...which becomes desktop software! Good thing Microsoft has a 25 year headstart on the desktop, and an additional 25 years of Ray Ozzie's patented synchronization expertise in Lotus Notes and Groove. I predict many years of "synchronization hell" as Gears learns how to do it right with their own innovation, instead of copying Ozzie's extensive work in this area.
    wlrock
    • It is the best of both worlds. The user gets the performance of a desktop

      application with the ease of use of a web application. You just visit the site, approve the use of local resources, and your application automatically installs itself, patches itself, updates itself, backs up the data, etc. It is cross platform. Also, your application and data are available anywhere there is an internet connection. Really a great innovation!!
      DonnieBoy
      • Too much faith in Google...

        ...and an increasingly disturbing series of major privacy blunders leaves me hesitant to stand in front of a CIO and suggest they store anything remotely confidential on their servers.
        rtk
  • Answering another post got me thinking. We also need local resources, made

    available to web applications. The first that came to mind, is a dictionary for spell check.

    What are the types of local resource we should make available to web applications to speed thing up, and eliminate redundant downloads of things like dictionaries???
    DonnieBoy
  • Dojo Offline was the first one!!

    >But, ultimately, I have routinely said that when the problem gets solved, it will get solved by Google. Last week, with Google?s announcement of Google Gears, that day cam

    Wrong! Dojo Offline was released months before Google Gears
    nuuser2k9