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Cutting through the FUD about Windows Phone updates

By | November 11, 2010, 11:02am PST

Summary: The paranoia around Windows Phone updates is so thick you could cut it with a machete. If you believe that carriers are going to undercut Microsoft’s new mobile platform by sabotaging OS updates, you need to take a closer look at the business model.

Update: If you want to learn more about how mobile carriers work, including some refreshingly candid quotes from official documents and financial reports, see AT&T’s business model: why your mobile bill keeps going up.

The paranoia around Windows Phone updates is so thick you could cut it with a machete.

The other day I wrote a post quoting Microsoft’s official policy on the subject, under the headline “Microsoft is in the driver’s seat for Windows Phone updates.” I’ve since had follow-up conversations with Microsoft spokespeople confirming that what I wrote was accurate.

This morning, Paul Thurrott published a snarky, melodramatic post that promises to explain “what’s really happening.” (I’ll give him the courtesy of linking to his post so you can read it, even though he didn’t bother to link to mine.) Peter Bright at Ars Technica has a similar analysis, minus the snark, with considerably more technical depth, and with ample links. And my ZDNet colleague Adrian Kingsley-Hughes piled on this morning with a rehash of the issue.

Ironically, Paul’s post, which is drawn from his experience at a reviewer’s workshop he attended last month, actually supports my point, explicitly and without reservation. He even put the money quote in boldface type. Here, read for yourself:

So why give carriers this control, I asked [Microsoft Corporate VP Joe Belfiore]. After all, Microsoft could simply require Windows Phone users to upgrade through the Zune PC software, bypassing the carriers entirely.

Technically, we could push updates through the Zune software and bypass the carriers,” he answered.

In other words, Microsoft is in the driver’s seat. They own the servers. They control the updates. But they also recognize they have partnership relationships to sustain, and they can’t just push an update out that might affect a carrier’s network. That would be stupid and short-sighted. Do you think Apple delivers an update to the iOS platform without making sure that their carrier partners have had a chance to test it for issues?

That’s where the paranoia creeps in. And that question of the business model is what my friends Peter and Paul (and Adrian too) are missing.

Mobile carriers are not evil or stupid. They are capitalists. That often produces behavior that appears to be evil and/or stupid. Depressingly often, in fact. But there’s usually a business reason for that behavior. And those who are arguing the paranoid case are ignoring those business models. That’s why the communication between them and Microsoft is so cantankerous. If you’re speaking different languages, communication is difficult.

Paul’s latest post even includes a quote from Belfiore that explains this issue, although Paul fails to connect the dots:

It’s very different from the situation with Windows Mobile, where every phone was very different and a full test pass was required on every phone. Here, there’s no impact on OEM code, network code, etc. There are upgrades that will require a full test pass. Most will not.

“Every phone was very different.” Exactly. Everyone who ever owned a Windows Mobile phone knows how true that is. Android owners are becoming aware of it as well, as I discovered while researching this post.

Page 2: The trouble with fragmented platforms –>

Topics

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications.

Disclosure

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is a freelance technical journalist and book author. All work that Ed does is on a contractual basis.

Since 1994, Ed has written more than 25 books about Microsoft Windows and Office. Along with various co-authors, Ed is completely responsible for the content of the books he writes. As a key part of his contractual relationship with publishers, he gives them permission to print and distribute the content he writes and to pay him a royalty based on the actual sales of those books. Ed's books written prior to fall 2011 have been distributed by Que Publishing (a division of Pearson Education) and by Microsoft Press. As of November 2011, Ed is a partner in the independent publishing company Fair Trade Digital Exchange, which exclusively publishes his books.

On occasion, Ed accepts consulting assignments. In recent years, he has worked as an expert witness in cases where his experience and knowledge of Microsoft and Microsoft Windows have been useful. In each such case, his compensation is on an hourly basis, and he is hired as a witness, not an advocate.

Ed does not own stock or have any other financial interest in Microsoft or any other software company. He owns 500 shares of stock in EMC Corporation, which was purchased before the company's acquisition of VMware. In addition, he owns 350 shares of stock in Intel Corporation, purchased more than two years ago. All stocks are held in retirement accounts for long-term growth.

Ed does not accept gifts from companies he covers. All hardware products he writes about are purchased with his own funds or are review units covered under formal loan agreements and are returned after the review is complete.

Biography

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications. He's served as editor of the U.S. edition of PC Computing and managing editor of PC World; both publications had monthly paid circulation in excess of 1 million during his tenure. He is the author of more than 25 books on Microsoft Windows and Office, including the recently released Windows 7 Inside Out.

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RE: Cutting through the FUD about Windows Phone updates
Sultansulan 2nd Jan
Wp7 is DEAD as KIN.

Even Samsung Bada Outsells wp7
Very nice pr puff I am sure your masters at MS approve.
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RIGHT ON mb01915
Ron Bergundy 11th Nov 2010
You got that right!!
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@cyberslammer3
I hope you get ban soon.
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BAN this mother...
Stormbringer_57th 12th Nov 2010
...aaaargh, whatever happy
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I'll second that, mb01915@...
ahh so 12th Nov 2010
Talk about kissing M$ a$$...
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@mb01915@...

So you are saying that FUD should not be challenged with facts, and if it is, then it is just PR puff? Interesting...
@Qbt - Surely you don't think that the trolls who live under the ZDNet bridges give two hoots about facts?

As Ed pointed out, the FACT is that the carriers own the networks and are REQUIRED to ensure that devices connected to their networks implement the comms carriers protocols, etc. correctly.

MS on the other hand knows all about how the phone is implemented - this is a benefit to the carrier since the carrier's core business is in operating their network. So, as has been clearly stated in the links Ed provided, the carrier tests any changes to comms or software that might affect the network but Microsoft tests, packages and delivers all changes once an updates' changes have been compliance tested by the carrier.

What's so hard to understand in that?
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Agreed
sackbut 11th Nov 2010
@mb01915@...
@mb01915@...
The LG Optimus 7 Bluetooth is broken. Lets see how quickly MS fix it, and if LG or Carrier gets in the way. This is the acid test for Windows Phone 7 updates. Time for talking is over. Microsoft, show your hand.
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@hwangeruk@... It seems the Optimus 7's Bluetooth issue is LG's doing and not Microsoft's. You can bet they both want that issue resolved ASAP and a fix will come as soon as it is ready. You really can't blame that on Microsoft since the other WP7 phones don't have the same issue.
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@mb01915@...

And you of course have the facts. Lets hear them...
@mb01915@... The truth hurts and you must be hurting with that iOS, Android, or BB phone. You have no credibility if you don't support your claim with facts in your post!
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I don't think he's a stooge.
yobtaf 12th Nov 2010
@mb01915@...
He just wants to believe.
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@mb01915@... Cut to Steve Balmer stroking a white cat. "We do not tolerate failure in this organisation, Mr Bott". Pulls out gun and shoots -- but it is not Ed, but Adrian Kingsley Hughes sitting next to him who takes the bullet, slumps to the floor. "now return to ZDNET, number 2", sneers Balmer, "and do not fail us again"
VERY NICE POST,THANKS FOR SHARING,I REALLY LIKE THIS SPACE,THANKS AGAIN hermes birkin bag
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Here is even better clarification of what the actual deal is.

http://wmpoweruser.com/clarification-on-the-windows-phone-7-os-update/

Basically, carriers are at the mercy of MS, not the other way around. If carriers can't get their own updates to MS in time to get them incorporated into the MS update, then the carriers are out of luck.
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The carriers can technically delay an update to Windows Phone 7.

Can we trust the carriers? No.

The carriers want you to buy another handset so they can sign you up for another 2 years. Want proof? If you buy a phone from somewhere else, the carrier doesn't give you a discount. They want you on that 2-year contract.

So they're happy to screw up your existing phone (by delaying updates). Those vital updates will be delayed.
@gyepera

The quote in the link cleary states that the carrier part of the update goes through MS, not the other way around. That is a huge distinction and completely prevents the carrier from blocking the part of the update that comes from MS. The only thing the carrier can block is an update to their own software that they install on the device (by not providing it to MS in time to be incorporated with the main update). But who cares about that? Read the quote from Brown in the link I provided. Slowly.
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RE: Cutting through the FUD about Windows Phone updates
illegaloperation Updated - 11th Nov 2010
@gyepera
Your FUD is not going to scare anyone, so cut it. Troll like you should be banned.
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Actually no they dont. Do you even know how to do math?
Johnny Vegas Updated - 11th Nov 2010
How about logic? The carriers price your 2 year plan so that they recover the subsidy for ridiculously high price the oem charges for the device. But after the 2 years are up in case you havent noticed your monthly rate doesnt go down. What was subsidy is now gravy. The best thing for the carrier is for you to keep paying the same amount you would with a new phone without getting one. Giving you the latest greatest os updates is the best way to keep you paying for months after your contract is up without a new phone.
@gyepera If they can delay WP7 updates, then they can delay iOS, Android, and BB also. So you don't have a point at all. They also are not going to get you to buy another handset with them if you got shafted by them with your current phone.
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Get real.
Cayble Updated - 13th Nov 2010
@gyepera
You must live in joke land because the whole premise of carries delaying updates to force you into a new handset is in general terms absurd.

Let me preface that with the admission that it does become a greater possibility once a handset becomes particularly outdated after a number of years, but its not going to happen simply because you have a 2,3,or 4 year old handset. And here are the obvious reasons why:

1. The OS is whats at issue here, if someone purchases a hand set in 2010 with version "X" of Windows Phone 7 and in 2012 its been upgraded to Windows Phone 7 version "X.2" and all Windows Phone 7 are at that point sold with Windows Phone 7 version "X.2" what are you suggesting a carrier is going to do in 2014; the phones purchased in 2012 with version "X.2" will get their update to version "X.3" but older phones with version "X.2" upgraded in 2012 will not get the "X.3" upgrade in 2014? Not only does that sound like more trouble then its worth for the carrier but it also runs them a very real risk of you not simply purchasing a new handset but doing it through another carrier. It's not going to be any carriers first choice of a way to do things. I suggest if the hardware will handle the upgrade the carries would be business stupid to do anything else then continue with facilitating upgrades as long as possible.

2. Keep in mind, upgrades are not simply upgrades, they also typically amount to security patching as well. Make no mistake and no mistake of any kind, blocking upgrades will never force a significant number of users to upgrade the handset because a significant number will not always have the money ready to blow the same month that the OS upgrades are forcefully stopped. This means the carrier would have purposely decided its worth the risk to have many thousands using their network with poorly patched security issues for months, maybe for years. Ya, that sounds like a wise decision.

3. And as far as your characterization of " Those vital updates will be delayed.", for the above reason #2, for the vast number of users the updates are actually often far more "vital" for the carriers then for the users. You really have to keep in mind that there are countless millions out there who are not the least tech savvy in any way and they almost always purchase a cell phone without any knowledge of "upgrades" or why they might exist or even be a good thing or important thing. Its like on ZDNet too many posters have completely lost sight of the absolute fact that the vast majority of the world know little to nothing about the actual tech side of purchasing modern computerized devices. To Joe Average its like purchasing a toaster. You go out and get the best one you can afford that sounds like it will do things the way you want, and from there they simply expect it to work. I know some people who have iPhones that are over 2 years old and haven't done an upgrade, they haven't even purchased an app. There are simply far far too many users out there who really don't give much of a damn about upgrades. To them its a phone and they never had to "upgrade" software on their home phone, so what? Its not going to drive them into purchasing a new handset until they choose to on their own accord. To Joe Average there is seldom anything such as a "vital upgrade" that exists.

In short, thinking that the carriers stopping upgrades prematurely to force users into purchasing new handsets is an idea that would only be born out of paranoia or sheer dislike of anything Windows. Its not an idea born out of good business sense or even common sense. Its stupid.

And by the way, I have an iPhone and have no plans to jump ship any time soon.
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@gyepera

So according to you, deliberately selling shoddy equipment that they know doesn't work, and then refusing to fix the problem when it is brought to their attention by customers increases customer satisfaction and loyalty and makes people more willing to re-up with yet another contract?
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The Kin debacle should have taught Microsoft the opposite.
matthew_maurice Updated - 11th Nov 2010
@Qbt The Kin wasn't a bad device, but it was made non-viable by its required data plan. Some have proposed that the Kin's delays and other VZW-MS issues caused Verizon to become intractable on data plan pricing which essentially smothered the Kin in it's crib. If that's true, then it illustrates rather clearly that Microsoft needs the carriers more than the carriers, at least Verizon, needs Microsoft.
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The Kin is coming back
gjafg 12th Nov 2010
@matthew_maurice
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The Kin was a HIGH BANDWIDTH device
wackoae 12th Nov 2010
@matthew_maurice Please stop spreading ilogical lies. The Kin in the hands of teenager was a high bandwidth device.

Or are you too stupid to understand that uploading and downloading pictures and video on the daily takes a lot more bandwidth than a person who just checks the news and email constantly.

Verizon didn't kill the Kin with the data plan. The Kin was a DOA device because it was a STUPID product that was geared towards teenagers but was somehow marketed as "sexting" (take a picture of your chess and email it to your friend) and "sexual predator" friendly (use the GPS to visit that stranger you meet online who turns out to be 20 years older than you).
@Qbt I clicked on the link and Norton wouldn't let me on. Site was blocked
Windows Phone 7 has a legendary long list of missing features.

What will you do if your carrier delays the update? They have every incentive to delay it. They install their apps (via Marketplace or otherwise). They will have no incentive to update their apps to work with a new OS version. It is easier for them to delay the OS update.

They will basically give you this choice: Put up with the Windows Phone 7 missing features, or buy a new phone.
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@gyepera

The carrier can't delay the update. Read this:

http://wmpoweruser.com/clarification-on-the-windows-phone-7-os-update/ \

EDIT: BTW, this "legendary long list of missing features"... You do realize that iPhone had these same features missing for 3 years right? And that MS will be adding these features pretty fast, the first being copy & paste, 3 months after its release. How you can be ok with being without those features on the iPhone for 3 years but suddenly this is a disaster on WP7? Also, do you even remember that iPhane had zero apps when it launched? And that you could not even write apps for it, even if you wanted to?
@Qbt

It was a hugely different market 3 years ago. If you wanted a smartphone you had:
Palm Treo with classic PalmOS
Windows Mobile which was bad
Symbian which was bad
Some proprietary Nokia thing which was bad.

The iPhone had its shortcomings but was leaps ahead of the other options.

WP7 is like launching a car today that gets 20 MPG. That was great in the 70's but not today.

Sorry, WP7 will fail.
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I know people call you an idiot
Ron Bergundy 11th Nov 2010
itguy, but you're 100% right!!!

I wonder what this place would be like if there were more inteligent people like you here?
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@itguy08

Except the part you forget is that the speed with these features are added to WP7 is much faster than how long it took iPhone to get them (3 months vs 3 years). No-one can release a new phone OS that has all features on day one. But it is interesting to see how fast these "missing" features are added.

MS is quite committed here and is in it for the long haul. As we have seen in the past, it might take some time, but eventually those that counted MS out usually end up on the losing end. I believe this is another one of those cases.
@Qbt - if I'm not mistaken, Ferrari, Porche, Lamborghini, Maserati, Bugati and many others release vehicles just recently that all do less than 20mpg.

Is Microsoft coming from a long way behind?
Yes.

Do they know this?
HECK yes.

Are they comitting HUGE resources to fix this?
You betcha.

Do MS have lots of SERIOUS engineering talent working on WP7?
Oh yes - I know many of them.

Many have made the mistake of underestimating Microsoft in the past and few now remain and those who do command a miniscule portion of the market: ViewCalc, Lotus123, Lotus Domino, Ami Pro, WordPerfect, Linux, OpenOffice, etc.

Microsoft are pouring $billions and pouring enormous talent into completely re-vamping their entire phone business. Expect significant results.
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@Qbt
Obviously troll like gyepera, cyberslammer3, and itguy08 is going to ignore the facts.
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@Cyberslammer3
SonofaSailor 11th Nov 2010
"I wonder what this place would be like if there were more inteligent people like you here?"

If there were any more like you two idiots...Steve's a$$ would be blistered from all the kissing going on.
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@sonofasailor Pay attention:

My account - avatar
Cyberslammer3 - no avatar not me

Get it?
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@Cyberslammer2
SonofaSailor 12th Nov 2010
How would one ever know?

You knock and chastise "Windoze" and call people who use "Windoze" idiots, then you turn around and say that's exactly what you use at your home office.

I wouldn't put it past you...having several accounts in order to unleash your idiocy upon the world sounds just like your M/O.
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@itguy08 - Cha-ching 25$ for the day - thank you...and your on record yet again. Man your funny
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Seriously... Put the crack pipe down...
Wolfie2K3 12th Nov 2010
@ID10Ttguy08
If Symbian as an OS is so "bad" then how is it possible that it still ranks as the top dog in worldwide market share...?

By "some proprietary Nokia thing" - you wouldn't happen to be referring to Qtopia Core - aka the Green Phone project..? Funny... That particular phone OS is kinda popular in Asia. The Motorola A1200 runs on it - and does it quite well. It came with cut/paste right out of the door. And this is something that came out FIVE years ago. It also has a removable battery, expandable SD chip slot (up to 2 GB), DRM free music playing capability, FM stereo.. A2DP Bluetooth, and so forth.

And ya know what - it's not so bad. No App store for it, tho you can install java based apps/games.

FWIW - it's Linux. And as a phone OS, it's pretty cool. One gal at a cell phone kiosk store even wanted to know if they could get some because she figured they'd sell like hotcakes. All this - 1 1/2 years before the original iPhone.

@cyberslammer3
Moron...
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So...
zkiwi 13th Nov 2010
Given all this prior knowledge/experience by staring at what iPhone and Android have done, can you give any plausible reason why WP7 can't have hit the ground in the state that iPhone and Android are in now (excepting the gazillion apps, because that's not Microsoft's problem it's that the app writers haven't had time yet).
@gyepera I guess you forgot to read the post before coming to the comments section. Carriers blocking an update was not the issue that delayed updates to reach customers, it has always been OEMs updating the OS to suit their device etc etc. But with WP7 this wont be needed as there are very minimal customizations that can delay an update.

Regarding the apps, I'm sure most of the updates will maintain backwards compatibility. Same like iOS.
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@gyepera

Are you still here?

Why?
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Why Google chose the Apache Software License over GPLv2 for Android
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate 11th Nov 2010
fyi:
http://arstechnica.com/old/content/2007/11/why-google-chose-the-apache-software-license-over-gplv2.ars

Which is better ASL or Microsoft exerting their full control over software distribution?

Seems to me that ASL is sensible and helps OEMs gain better control and it isn't so much to the 'detriment' of the end-user either. Telco releases are typically 3-4 months behind the RTM release.
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate - I think the question should be - who do you trust to build an OS and software platform, along with the dev, test, profiling and diagnostic tools to enable the OS & Platform developers to be as productive as possible?

A cellphone carrier or Microsoft?

I am sure you're going to say carrier, but that would be the wrong answer.
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate

Sure, in the meantime many buyers of android phones resort to hacking because :-

a. No updates
b. No updates
c. No updates (B***** H***, where the 2.2, I mean 2.3 SE?)
d. Being told to update, go upgrade the phone.
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate

I think you're in the wrong here. I, like you, also own a Samsung Galaxy S. But unlike you I bought my phone off carrier brand (mine is I9000) without getting into any carrier contract.

So did it get the Froyo update faster than carrier models? No. Actually it was the last to get the update because carriers actually giving pressure to Samsung to update their phone first. As much as I love my Galaxy S (I own both iPhone and Android) I think I could say the update process on Android so far is a complete disaster.
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Blowhard
Seems to me it said that the releases seem to be 6 - 10 months behind RTM. Mainly because the hardware is all over the place and it needs to be modified to work with each model phone and then each carrier has to give it a once over to add their own code to it so it will work properly on their network.
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You're kind of all over the map, Ed.
matthew_maurice Updated - 11th Nov 2010
You say you "have never known a carrier to block an update to a device", but then you reference the Windows Mobile model, which, by your own admission, is different from WP7. Second, you talk about business models, but let's look at things like tethering and user-created ringtones, or mapping software. These are features Microsoft might want to include, but carriers would see as threats to internal revenue sources-hence having an excellent "business reason" to oppose them. Perhaps then you'd see a carrier block an update.

Additionally, you observe that Microsoft, with WP7, is trying to walk a middle path between the Apple and Android approaches, but, astutely, you note that "its much, much closer to the iPhone model." One important factor to the success of the "iPhone model" is that Apple has, what everyone concludes to be, an extremely comprehensive agreement with AT&T. It's the general consensus that Apple can do what it does with the iPhone because AT&T has to let it. Microsoft likely doesn't have that kind of arrangement with it's carriers, or possibly even the OEMs. Without a way to contractually obligate carrier behavior the possibility of "evil and/or stupid" appearing capitalistic behavior is possible, if not likely.

I don't fundamentally disagree with your conclusions. Things could very well go down the way you explain. However my point all along has been there's no explicit statement that it will. Granted there are few guarantees in life, but it's not unreasonable for the cynics (or the paranoid) to become skeptical when we see phrases like "technically", "in theory" and "we don't expect."
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Contributr
Two points
Ed Bott 11th Nov 2010
@matthew_maurice

One, I argue that carriers make decisions for business reasons. I cannot see any reason for them blocking a universal update. I saw many reasons for them refusing to create updates for one-off devices.

Two, you talk about Apple and its "extremely comprehensive agreement with AT&T." You're bei.g a little US-centric.They have agreements with many, many carriers globally.

We'll see what happens. I disagree with the paranoid streak this discussion has taken.
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Fair enough.
matthew_maurice 11th Nov 2010
@Ed Bott My only response is to reiterate that Microsoft could conceivably want to make OS additions that carriers would oppose as a "business decision" (e.g. tethering, ring-tones and turn-by-turn mapping). And in my defense, I used the conjecture about the Apple-AT&T deal, specifically, as an example. I'm willing to posit that Apple's agreements with non-U.S. carriers are very similar in all regards except Exclusivity but especially in regards to Apple's "ownership" of the customer relationship (i.e. device management).
Wp7 is DEAD as KIN.

Even Samsung Bada Outsells wp7

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