Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
Summary: It hasn't been a good year for Firefox. Mozilla has lost share to Google, it's lost the loyalty of enterprise customers, and it's lost key talent. And a deal with Google that supplied 84% of its revenue last year was scheduled to end in November. Can Firefox avoid a slide into irrelevance?
It hasn't been a good year for Mozilla and its flagship product, the Firefox browser.
Firefox continues to lose share to Google Chrome. Statistics from Net Market Share show the decline, with Firefox plunging from 25% to 22% and Chrome rising from under 5% to more than 18% during the last two years.
Firefox is now on an accelerated development schedule that has alienated enterprise customers.
One of its key managers, Mike Shaver, left in September. How important was he to the developers? The current version of the Firefox road map still includes a big bold TODO item under the "How to ship faster" heading:
Process change suggestions (w/Shaver)
And the deal with Mozilla's biggest financial backer is in question. A search partnership with Google has historically been Mozilla's greatest source of income. In its most recent financial statement, prepared in August and published recently online (see this PDF copy), the Mozilla Foundation won't even mention Google's name:
The Corporation has a contract with a search engine provider for royalties which expires November 2011. Approximately 84% and 86% of royalty revenue for 2010 and 2009, respectively, was derived from this contract.
In the accompanying FAQ, Mozilla provides a cryptic non-answer to the question:
What is the status of the organization’s search partnerships?
We currently have partnerships with a number of search providers that differ by market. Our largest contract, with Google, comes up for renewal in November. We have every confidence that search partnerships will remain a solid generator of revenue for Mozilla for the foreseeable future.
Back in July, I sent an e-mail to Mozilla PR with a number of questions about the Mozilla-Google financial agreement.
- The Mozilla-Google search arrangement ends in 2011, according to the most recent public disclosure I was able to find. Is that date accurate?
- Are Mozilla and Google in discussions to extend that arrangement further, and if so would it be under revised terms?
- Has Mozilla made contingency plans in the event that Google decides to end or scale back its support?
A Mozilla spokesperson replied with a link to the 2009 financial FAQ, which contained equally vague language: "We believe that search providers will remain a solid generator of revenue for Mozilla for the foreseeable future."
On December 1, I asked Mozilla PR for news on whether the agreement with Google was renegotiated or whether the foundation has any further update to that FAQ. I received a crisp reply:
We currently do not have an update to share.
In 2010, 84% of Mozilla's $123 million in revenue came directly from Google. That's roughly $100 million in funds that will vanish or be drastically cut if the deal is either not renewed or is renegotiated on terms that are less favorable to Mozilla.
When the original three-year partnership deal was signed in 2008, Chrome was still on the drawing boards. Today, it is Google's most prominent software product, and it is rapidly replacing Firefox as the alternative browser on every platform.
Back in March, I suggested that Firefox won't survive:
So where does that leave Firefox? It doesn’t have an app ecosystem or a loyal core of developers. Extensions? Those were worth bragging about in 2005, but in 2012 the story is apps. Businesses and consumers will want to use the same browser that powers their installed apps. In the PC space, that means Google or Microsoft. It doesn’t leave room for a third player.
Mozilla knows this. The last item on its latest roadmap highlights the need to "plan for a future where Desktop, Mobile and Web Apps run on a common platform" and "to design and architect towards this eventual outcome." But the last line notes that "implementation of this is not a priority."
With its biggest source of revenue likely to dry up and a platform that is under attack from Microsoft and Google, how long will it take before Firefox slides into irrelevance?
Related posts:
- Why Internet Explorer will survive and Firefox won't
- Latest browser stats: Chrome, IE9 up, Firefox suffers enthusiasm gap
- Mozilla to enterprise customers: Drop dead
- Microsoft's Bing launches better Firefox integration amid Google-Mozilla renewal talk
- Google dumps Firefox toolbar; is a split with Mozilla next?
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Talkback
If you sleep with the enemy, expect to be stabbed in the back
Collaborating with the enemy, as Mozilla/Firefox has done for so long, is a potentially fatal mistake.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
He says, on his PC or Mac developed by the evil corporation as he answers his iphone developed by the evil corporation as he drive his Chevy Volt also developed by the evil corporation.
Go build a log cabin in the woods if you don't like business innovation.
Censorship abatement therapy
Corporations are not evil, any more than sharks are evil. They're just doing what they are designed to do: mercilessly eat everything in sight. Firefox isn't a "cabin in the woods," it's a shark cage.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
you're wrong in one respect... his Chevy volt wasn't developed by an evil corporation... it was developed by the government.
Been using FF Beta RC version for the past few months.
Mozilla has been working to respond to Chrome's growing share. I don't believe Chrome will be in the "Lead" for very long. Not that it matters anyway. Firefox will never quite be irrelevant, there is always room for OSS which Firefox is.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
Actually, I have been using nightly in its beta stage and its not that bad.
Put it this way, it converted me from IE9 to Firefox. And now I can't even believe that i managed to put up with Microsoft's IE fails for so long. the fact that a beta edition of Firefox is more stable than the actual release of IE9, that says it all.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
RE: If you sleep with the enemy, expect to be stabbed in the back
"Google is the enemy. The corporation is your enemy, and my enemy
While corporations have way, WAY too much influence with the government, they do create products and services that are useful. And there are lots of choices today. For example, if Google's Chrome browser is not your cup of tea (it does have some useful features), one can choose a derivative browser such as Chromium or SRWare Iron. Or another browser altogether, like Firefox, Opera, IE or Safari. And just remember that there is a Mozilla Corporation too. It's a wholly owned subsidiary of the Mozilla Foundation.
P.S. There will likely be one or more corporations that keep Mozilla going, with or without Google. Perhaps, Microsoft and IBM (if Mozilla gets their act together for enterprise users).
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
Firefox supports HTML5 just as well as IE and Chrome does. In other word, future Web Apps will work just as well using it. Yes Firefox will likely become less popular but it won't become irrelevant.
You can opt-out of Firefox auto-updates. Enterprise doesn't use extensions anyway.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
They already made a deal with Bing
But there's no way that anyone will want to pay what Google has been paying for the last three years. It was over $100 million in 2010.
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/microsofts-bing-launches-better-firefox-integration-amid-google-mozilla-renewal-talk/61931
Gates sometimes liked competition -- for example, he did not want Apple to
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
Are you sure? M$ paid billions over market value for Skype. HP paid at least twice what Palm was worth. 3Par? Corporate bigs are cash rich and common sense poor. It would be sad to see Firefox lose funding. They pay for some $20 million in grants per year. They are a very generous non-profit. I genuinely hope they weather this recent management glitch. I mean seriously, they could probably eke by at this point on $40 million revenue if they stopped buying new furniture and computers, but I hope they don't need to.
@Ed Bott .. i don't think that's an accurate or a fair assessment
RE: They already made a deal with Bing
"But there's no way that anyone will want to pay what Google has been paying for the last three years. It was over $100 million in 2010.
Recall Microsoft's recent advertising and search deal with Verizon rumored to have been a $500 million U.S. payment to Verizon for 5 years, which translates to $100 million per year. And Mozilla's Firefox browser market share is currently approx. 20-25% for PCs. This dwarfs Verizon's mobile device market share.
Bing or Google
If Google doesn't pay Firefox, Microsoft will be glad to pay a little for greater Bing exposure. Which may again motivate Google to continue after all.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends
Proof that bloated now has no real meaning.
RE: Firefox faces uncertain future as Google deal apparently ends