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Who will win the Windows 7 release date prediction pool?

By | June 3, 2009, 7:50am PDT

Summary: With this week’s confirmation by Microsoft that it plans to release Windows 7 to manufacturing “in the second half of July,” it’s time to take another look at the entries in my Windows 7 release date prediction pool, which ran from April to September 2008. Out of all entries, only 11 TalkBack commenters hve a shot at claiming bragging rights. Who made the cut?

With this week’s confirmation by Microsoft that it plans to release Windows 7 to manufacturing “in the second half of July,” it’s time to take another look at the entries in my Windows 7 release date prediction pool.

The rules were pretty clear: Enter the complete date – day, month, and year – when you believe Microsoft will officially announce the release to manufacturing of Windows 7. I opened the pool for entries on April 9, 2008, and the official window for predictions closed on September 15, 2008. As I wrote in a follow-up post, the crowd predicted September 30, 2009; that’s impressively close to the actual on-sale date of October 22, 2009. Assuming Microsoft hits its stated RTM deadline, one of the following people gets to claim bragging rights:

I’ll take a bow for my initial analysis in the posts, which flagged July 29 as the RTM date and was based on a post I wrote at the beginning of 2008:

My prediction? I’m sticking with what I wrote back in January. Windows 7 will be released to manufacturing on July 29, 2009, exactly 1000 days after Vista’s November 2, 2006 RTM date.

As promised, I’ll send a signed copy of Windows 7 Inside Out to the commenter who nails the date (or gets closest without overshooting it).

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Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications.

Disclosure

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is a freelance technical journalist and book author. All work that Ed does is on a contractual basis.

Since 1994, Ed has written more than 25 books about Microsoft Windows and Office. Along with various co-authors, Ed is completely responsible for the content of the books he writes. As a key part of his contractual relationship with publishers, he gives them permission to print and distribute the content he writes and to pay him a royalty based on the actual sales of those books. Ed's books written prior to fall 2011 have been distributed by Que Publishing (a division of Pearson Education) and by Microsoft Press. As of November 2011, Ed is a partner in the independent publishing company Fair Trade Digital Exchange, which exclusively publishes his books.

On occasion, Ed accepts consulting assignments. In recent years, he has worked as an expert witness in cases where his experience and knowledge of Microsoft and Microsoft Windows have been useful. In each such case, his compensation is on an hourly basis, and he is hired as a witness, not an advocate.

Ed does not own stock or have any other financial interest in Microsoft or any other software company. He owns 500 shares of stock in EMC Corporation, which was purchased before the company's acquisition of VMware. In addition, he owns 350 shares of stock in Intel Corporation, purchased more than two years ago. All stocks are held in retirement accounts for long-term growth.

Ed does not accept gifts from companies he covers. All hardware products he writes about are purchased with his own funds or are review units covered under formal loan agreements and are returned after the review is complete.

Biography

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications. He's served as editor of the U.S. edition of PC Computing and managing editor of PC World; both publications had monthly paid circulation in excess of 1 million during his tenure. He is the author of more than 25 books on Microsoft Windows and Office, including the recently released Windows 7 Inside Out.

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Contributr
But it won't be ready yet
Ed Bott 4th Jun 2009
The people on the Windows team are pretty disciplined with their schedules. If they say it's going to be ready inthe second half of July,that's because they need that much time to complete testing and other necessary processes. You really want them to skip a week or two of that so they can have a press conference at 7AM the day after a three-day holiday in the United States?

Seriously, you're living up to your handle. wink
0 Votes
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My prediction
vineeth_pulari 3rd Jun 2009
It will be August 1, because its my birthday, and
unlike all previous Windows versions which i
liked, i LOVE windows 7 happy
0 Votes
+ -
Contributr
Sorry, contest is closed!
Ed Bott Updated - 3rd Jun 2009
Thanks for the entry, but the contest is over! (And if Microsoft fails to hit the July target, someone already has August 1.
0 Votes
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July 23, 20009 happy
0 Votes
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As I've Twittered for months and months, this has become one of the dumbest PR mistakes yet to NOT release Windows 7 on July 7 at 7:00 AM. The marketing spin potential is astronomical. It's marketing 101, but whatever, just another dumb Microsoft marketing decision.
0 Votes
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Contributr
But it won't be ready yet
Ed Bott 4th Jun 2009
The people on the Windows team are pretty disciplined with their schedules. If they say it's going to be ready inthe second half of July,that's because they need that much time to complete testing and other necessary processes. You really want them to skip a week or two of that so they can have a press conference at 7AM the day after a three-day holiday in the United States?

Seriously, you're living up to your handle. wink

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