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Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture

By | January 14, 2011, 8:44am PST

The incessant handicapping over the coming Android vs. Apple iOS battle has caused temporary insanity in a few folks.

First up, Dan Lyons concludes that the Verizon iPhone is too late to thwart Android. Lyons likens the iPhone to the Model T. Lyons’ lens—he switched from iPhone to Android—is a little off, says John Gruber. I’m with Gruber on the insanity of Lyons’ argument.

But let’s zoom out just a smidge. The iPhone landing at Verizon does indeed give Android devices some better competition. ComScore reckons that Verizon will market the iPhone heavily and gain smartphone market share. Indeed, there will be a shelf space war for sure at Verizon Wireless stores as Apple and Android duke it out. However, AT&T’s new love affair with Android will offset some of that slippage—assuming the iPhone does take away sales of the Droid.

I’m increasingly convinced that Verizon’s internal figures will change—it will sell enough iPhones to minimize its dependence on Android—but the big picture won’t. In the end, folks will continue to get Android devices. More folks will buy iOS devices. Let’s face it for every Apple fan, there’s an Android person that wants to stick it to Steve Jobs. The Android vs. Apple camps resemble Republicans vs. Democrats. In the end, both Android and iOS will continue to cause havoc on the smartphone platform market. Android will have the most share. Apple will have decent market share and the most profit by a wide margin.

The rest of the competition is largely screwed.

That latter point should be the focus. There’s no zero sum game with Android and Apple. Those two combined are going to cause more than a few headaches for other platforms. To wit:

  • How exactly is Research in Motion going to get shelf space? RIM looked good to AT&T when it was diversifying ahead of losing the iPhone. At CES, AT&T hopped in bed with Android. RIM is now sleeping on the couch (just like it was at Verzion). Without a great device, RIM will continue to lose share to the Android-Apple tag team, argues Jason Perlow.
  • What happens with Windows Phone 7? I like Windows Phone 7 a lot, but can’t bring myself a device powered by that OS. I just don’t have a big desire to be all that different. My smartphone bake-off is between Android and the iPhone. If I’m not alone with my Windows Phone 7 assessment where does that leave Microsoft? My hunch is that Windows Phone 7 will become the leader of the feature phone pack, but it’ll still run into Android.
  • Hewlett-Packard’s webOS will be neat, but niche. Wake me up when Nokia decides the U.S. is slightly important. Every other smartphone platform out there will have to divert attention away from Android and the iPhone.

Sure, the Android vs. iPhone zero sum storyline is dramatic, but the reality is the two combined are going to kick a lot of smartphone booty.

More:

Verizon’s iPhone: Analysts debate whether utopia has arrived

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Topics

Apple iPhone, Research In Motion Ltd., Microsoft Windows Phone 7, Smart Phone, Verizon Communications Inc., Microsoft Windows Phone, Apple Inc., Android, Lyons, Smart Phones, Microsoft Windows, Cellular Phones, Handhelds, Consumer Electronics, Personal Technology, Operating Systems, Software, Hardware, Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
jonbearfla@... 17th Jun
I was at a Verizon store the other day and it was very busy, most people were looking at the droid phones. One person was looking at the iPhone. It seems hard for iPhone to compete against huge screened droid phones. Perhaps iPhone 5 will correct this.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
roteague 14th Jan 2011
I'll take Windows Phone 7 over Andriod or iPhone, so I really am not too concerned with how these two play out.
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Normal Windows users are not religious like you are. They buy Android and
DonnieBoy 14th Jan 2011
iPhone, as Windows Phone 7 sucks compared to the competition.
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Said the man who knows nothing
John Zern 14th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy
So whyt post. You've never used WP7, or iPhone, and you've never said what phone you do use (if you do use one), so aren't your comments pretty meaningless?
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
Rama.NET 14th Jan 2011
@Donnie Boyo
Where are normal Windows users? In your closed and illusional views there are no normal Windows users except few propeller heads, right? Get a real job Donnie Boyo before everyone think your views are c**p.
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Agreed, Mr. Zern
Mister Spock 14th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy does tend to talk alot about items he has never used, and yet "allways knows a lot of people" who use the Microsoft products and have hated them.

"Suspect" would be an understatement.
plain
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WP7 is actually really good.
Bruizer 14th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy

MS concentrated on getting the features they have implemented very very well similar to the Apple approach. It is still rather slow on loading but that will be addressed in about 10 days.

To me, the telling truth will be the roll out of the update. If MS has control of the update like Apple does with iOS and not the cluster frick created in the Android eco-system, I think people will see that as a win.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
Pete "athynz" Athens 15th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy And here I thought you called ALL of us Windows users propeller heads and idiots...

I'm sure you've never even messed with a WP7 device... I did and personally prefer iOS to it or Android but I'm not saying it sucks - I'm saying I did not like it as much as iOS. Besides aren't you the same person who has been saying for years that Win32/64 is dead and gone?
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I'm no fan of DonnieBoy but he did qualify his statement with:
ye 16th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy: ...compared to the competition.

I take this as his opinion he prefers Android.
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Step outside the U.S and much of all this is irrelevant!
kaninelupus Updated - 18th Jan 2011
seriously guys, much of the nightmare that is the smart-phone wars in the U.S is really ONLY relevant to the U.S

* In most parts of the world, these types of "exclusive to such and such a carrier" are either banned or publicly frowned upon.

* RIM is still a powerhouse for business/corporate users

* Nokia still a serious player

* Much less likely to see an allegiance to a particular mobile-OS/brand as an extension of their personal esteem or identity!

Yet again the world just shakes their heads at you silly Yanks!
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
geolemon 19th Jan 2011
@roteague WP7 shows promise of having the ability to be great - but isn't - yet.
If you were saying what you said and this were 2012, I might agree with you. But you can't even cut and paste with WP7 yet. It's missing some real key, even fundamental ingredients. I'm confident MS is working on them, although I'm less confident that MS perceives WP7 OS to have the significance overall that really does for MS.

In it's current form, today, an educated consumer wouldn't take a Windows Phone 7 over an Android or iPhone, unless you were simply attracted to the beautiful displays and nice looking layouts and widgets.

MS is in a great position to compromise exactly between iPhone and Android (having desktops with widgets is Android-like, arranged in a neat grid form is very iPhone, even if iPhone doesn't offer desktops or widgets). It's customizable, but you can't replace the entire UI like you can with Android. Let's HOPE that MS continues to develop this in the right direction - meaning, listening to exactly what users are praising and criticizing about the respective platforms. So far, so good...
...but a long, long way off from an iPhone or Android beater at this point.

Come back in 2012 and see what WP7 looks like.
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Especially for Google, it is the SUM of Android iOS phones on the market
DonnieBoy 14th Jan 2011
that they care about. Actually, even Windows Phone 7 phones are good for Google as there are more people out there doing mobile search, and the majority will switch the search to Google.
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That's funny. It appears alot of people won't
John Zern 14th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy and that's what worries google enough to try to make another Google phone (wasn't one massive phone failure enough?).

They need to lock people into their search, yet carriers and companies are choosing alternatives.

Isn't competition great!
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
dove-7 16th Jan 2011
@John Zern I doubt that Google is worried. If anyone is worried, it's Apple. HEnce why they are now on Verizon. Both will have their fans, but let's face it, Droid is Apple's competition that Windows lacked in, in other departments.

Droid fanboys and non love their Droid phones and love them for different reasons. Iphone's sells will not really dig into the Droid market. Plus some of the differences are subtle.
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Bing on Android
dazzlingd 14th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy
It's funny how Verizon switches the default search on some Android devices to Bing then.

Oh yeah, and the Google app on WP7 sucks.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
DevRandom 14th Jan 2011
@dazzlingd
Strange how often software from competitors works poorly on windows, eh? As if it were a strategy from Redmond.
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What are you talking about?
dazzlingd Updated - 14th Jan 2011
@DevRandom
You must be confusing Microsoft with Apple. Most 3rd party software works great on Windows, except for Apple software, such as iTunes.

Most 3rd party software works terribly on Apple.

Must be something to do with the support Microsoft provides with the World's largest developer network.

DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS! DEVELOPERS!
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
Rick_K 15th Jan 2011
@dazzlingd
Can I get some of what you?re smoking? Microsoft has a long and documented history of putting out ?service pack? that alter the performance of competitors products. You might be confusing ISVs with competitors. Microsoft has hampered QuickTime, Netscape, Yahoo, etc. Whatever market Microsoft wants to dominate they will stop at nothing to hamper the competition.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
dove-7 16th Jan 2011
@dazzlingd Yeah, but many users will go right back to Google. My phone's default is Google. It's cool that Google isn't pulling an Apple and forcing people to use and not use.
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Supporting evidence please.
ye 16th Jan 2011
@Rick_K: Microsoft has a long and documented history of putting out ?service pack? that alter the performance of competitors products.

Unless you're referring to improvements in performance I would like to see some of this documentation in support of your claim.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
nomorebs 16th Jan 2011
@ye: Rick_K has no documentation of his claim. Apple products on Windows suck and always have. That has nothing to do with MS.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
Rama.NET 14th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy
Check Google App on Windows Phone 7 and talk. It sucks big time. They don't have real programming talent in house it seems.
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Actually, it may be an attempt by Google to
Mister Spock 14th Jan 2011
@Rama.NET
force users into an Android phone.
Imagine creating their software that "does not work quite right" on all phones except for Android?

it is a thought.
plain
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
Rick_K 15th Jan 2011
@Mister Spock
So you?re saying that Google is stealing a page from the Microsoft handbook? What is next, putting out a critical update that hoses competing products?
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
dove-7 16th Jan 2011
@Rama.NET Perhaps it's due to Windows intentionally doing that? They do own BING, so that wouldn't surprise me at all. I don't have that issue on my Droid LG phone. I doubt that lack of talent it the issue. Comcast is attempting to pull this stunt with Netflix. If they don't pay them a percentage for streaming on their network, they'll decrease the streaming quality for viewers. It's called conflict of interest.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
mantrik00 14th Jan 2011
The Author says: "My hunch is that Windows Phone 7 will become the leader of the feature phone pack, but it?ll still run into Android."

So how do smartphone platforms become feature phones. What does he mean by 'feature phones' and 'smartphone'. There lies some fundamental confusion. Now I feel, why do I even bother to read these bogus blogs?
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
dazzlingd 14th Jan 2011
@mantrik00
As feature phones out sell smartphones by about 3 to 1, I think Microsoft will be happy with that.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
DannyO_0x98 14th Jan 2011
@dazzlingd
To answer mantrik00's questions, feature phones are inexpensive cell phones. The dividing line is going to be necessarily arbitrary as processors become faster/cheaper.

dazzlingd is correct, Microsoft will be happy to have a presence among feature phones, but that's because Microsoft sells operating systems to phone manufacturers.

How those phone manufacturers feel about paying for an operating system while dogfighting with other manufacturers in a low-margin cost-driven sector is a more on-point question. Since WP7 requires a minimum hardware configuration, one would think the phones are necessarily costlier, but the interface and user experience could justify a higher price for a comparable or lesser (on a hardware basis) phone.

The big profits for phone manufacturers are to be found in the smartphone sector, though.
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Amazing how little Americans seem to understand about
GoPower 14th Jan 2011
capitalism and competition. Competition is good for consumers for a variety of choice and prices. It forces companies in the game to continually be competitive. Flag waving for one of these smartphone OSes to gain majority or monopoly share, will defeat the whole purpose if it where to occur.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
A. Noid 14th Jan 2011
@GoPower Amazing how many foreigners assume Americans don't know anything, and thank you oh master of the obvious in telling us how competition works, and what the benefits are. Frankly, some fanboys waving their flag will have extremely little effect on the market.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
nomorebs 16th Jan 2011
@A. Noid : Not sure why you are so angry. Just read many blog posts at ZDnet and several comments by users and it's obvious there are a great majority of rabid fans want their phone to crunch all the others. As a consequence there can be a monopoly. What part of that you don't understand?
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
The Danger is Microsoft 17th Jan 2011
@GoPower - Tell that to Microsoft. They don't see it that way which is why the do everything to protect the monopolies in IBM compatible PC's and Office Productivity Suites.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
DannyO_0x98 14th Jan 2011
I think a word or two got omitted from this sentence:

"but can?t bring myself a device powered by that OS."

I'm guessing there's a "to" and an important verb which follows "myself."
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
jcunwired 14th Jan 2011
Very nice, Mr. Dignan!

Like your colleague James Kendrick, my first cellphone required a backpack, not a rubber band. I believe the brand loyalty prevalent today is directly related to one's insertion point on the technology escalator. Since 1978 I've been involved in tech, and seen a lot of innovation in 32 years, each step of the way devoured and appreciated.

Competition leads to innovation, innovation leads to increased functionality. In this regard, while I do not agree with the Apple way, I love Apple for what they have done to influence the personal computing and smartphone industry, and what they and competitors have delivered to the consumer. Burned once, I'll likely never own an Apple product, but I fully support their vision and respect their brilliance.

At one time Apple and the iPhone were unique products, and at that time they were without argument the best in the industry. Now there is no best, no killers, but rather several very good, a few great products across several brands. Learn to live with it folks, don't view competition as evil!

When I was a kid watching Star Trek I would drool every time their Communicator/Tricorder was pulled out. I wanted one! You know what, patience paid off - today I carry a smartphone that is much more capable than what Roddenberry's imagination could provide, and outside of beaming myself to the nearest sushi restaurant I am more empowered than Capt. Kirk. I have a lot of people and companies to thank for that, a great deal of innovation and inspiration that fanboys would like to see crushed.

Become the anti-fanboy and start enjoying technology, because resistance IS futile.
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yeah, what he said...
psquared007 14th Jan 2011
@jcunwired Please take this well thought out, articulate prose elsewhere. It's sure to be under appreciated here. ; )
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No. The desire for profit leads to innovation. Competition
frgough 14th Jan 2011
is a byproduct of two or more people seeking after profit.
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I don't think profit ever SJ's main desire
CowLauncher 14th Jan 2011
Funny how it turned out though.
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I disagree, CowLauncher. Profit is Mr. Job's
Mister Spock 14th Jan 2011
main desire.
The markup on their products prove that quite easily.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
Kuby 14th Jan 2011
My peeve is with any phone that I cannot change out the battery. Hence, no iPhone for me even with all the neat stuff. I have an iTouch & 4mo after buying I find the battery is already loosing life and I cannot change it out. So if Android has user replaceable battery - they will get my business. Sr. MFG/Test ENG, MS-EET
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And Rex Ryan has a thing for feet?
James Quinn 14th Jan 2011
@Kuby
The replaceable battery has yet to prove a problem for Apple or its "i" devices.

And despite my joke earlier Rex's foot thing does not seem to be hurting him either:)

Pagan jim
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
A.Sinic 17th Jan 2011
@James Quinn
Every time I show people that I can take the battery out of my LG E900 (WP7), there is a gasp of wonder and appreciation. happy
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
rhonin 17th Jan 2011
@James Quinn
The iPhone has turned me into a sipper when I use it.
My N1 I just have a spare battery......

N1 - business
i4 - Games

happy
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
The Danger is Microsoft 17th Jan 2011
@Kuby - Apple will replace the battery free under warranty for the first year. But you know that if you own an iPhone. I suspect you are just an Apple basher.
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Windows phones
waltmaine 14th Jan 2011
I haven't messed with Windows 7 phones, but I have a 6.5 and I've had a 5. They have left such a bad taste in my mouth that I could Never Ever go with a Windows phone ever again. They were designed with the mindset "Hey - a phone. Lets see if we can get Windows on it..." leaving users messing around with a stinking stylus in place of a mouse to do half the things.

In sharp contrast, the iPhone was designed with the mindset "Hmm - we have a small handset - lets come up with a UI that is actually useful on a small screen." Apple gets it. The iPhone is a joy to use. The app store is great but I do admit I am annoyed by Apple's high-handed tactics in managing it.

I can type faster on an iPhone than I can on my Windows phone that has a real slide out keyboard - and I use the Windows (work) phone 10 times more (because it's for work.)

I've only played with Android a few times, but it looked good except the icons seemed to be "Hey - lets just use random pictures I found in a clipart collection and make the user figure out what they mean".
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Good post
LiquidLearner 15th Jan 2011
@waltmaine

And to some extent I agree with you. I'm a former mobile 5-6.5 user. I'm interested in WP7 because of the things it does right, namely Exchange and Sharepoint. I went to a Droid 2 expecting this dream platform. Reboots are still a fact of life, although I can go 3-4 days rather than daily. My biggest problem with the platform is the way it handles Exchange. Sometimes it will just stop getting mail unless I open e-mail and force it to sync. It has garbled my contact lists, merging contacts like Marc with Mark. It has wreaked absolute havoc on my contacts.

I tell people all the time it's hard for me to recommend Android to an end user because while I enjoy the freedom offered, I don't enjoy the constant babysitting the OS requires. And if I have a problem with that an end user is going to have a much harder time with it.

I've told my boss that while I can't personally stand Apple's business approach we should recommend iPhones to users asking what devices to get to sync with Exchange for now. I don't have experience with WP7 so I can't recommend it. I do have experience with both iPhones and Android and it's a pretty easy recommendation to go to iPhone. At least I know it will work right with their Exchange account and not do completely unexplained stuff.

Never in a million years did I think I'd recommend an Apple product to a business but when you look at the current big picture it seems the right thing to do. I've never had a customer tell me they hate their iPhone, I've heard that of Android. I do have a few who have picked up WP7 and seem to like it quite a bit. I'll see how that plays out before telling people to seriously consider it.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
i2fun@... 15th Jan 2011
@LiquidLearner "I've never had a customer tell me they hate their iPhone....." You've obviously never stood in an Apple Bar Customer Service line or gone to a dedicated iPhone forum obviously then! wink
  • Flagged
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
rhonin Updated - 16th Jan 2011
@LiquidLearner
Sorry to hear about your issue with contacts and exchange.
I use a Nexus One and don't have that issue. I let the OS take care of itself and it is doing very well - no reboots or task kills.
On the other hand, MobileMe (I also have an i4) absolutely wacked my contacts. Every time I get a ME update via iTunes - it explodes my contacts creating multiple duplicates. I finally dropped ME for contacts and run them strictly out of google.
Every OS has issues.
Now..... what shall I get next?
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"Apple will have decent market share and the most profit by a wide margin."
Bruizer 14th Jan 2011
Exactly right. I expect Android to end up with about 50-100% market share advantage over iOS. The iOS eco-system, however will get about 80% profit share. This does not include just Apple profits but developer and media profits as well.

So while Android gets a bit more market share, fragmentation of the eco-system will limit advanced programming like games and other apps that make serious use of the hardware. Like, 3rd party peripheral support vendors (think boom boxes, kiosks and cases) will favor iOS due to consistent targetable devices.
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It always comes down to a breakdown of the article!!!
Bansaku Updated - 14th Jan 2011
@dazzlingd what p.o.s. system are you running? iTunes, Safari, QT, and even Apple Update work flawlessly on every PC I installed them on, even on my AMD64 system with XP at work. And have you EVER used a Mac for everyday use?! I can tell you, for a FACT, that most (some freeware is poo) software runs flawlessly on my tri-boot Hackintosh (ya, you read right). You sound no different than DonnieBoy. Please elaborate? What software? MS Office, Adobe products (even Flash), Steam client? Vuze? WoW?! PS3 Media server?! I have never run into the same install/usability problems that I constantly experience in Windows while running OS X. Just think, why does every business that uses PCs (most) NEED and IT guy (or department)? It's not because the software runs smoothly. Today my computer (the above mentioned AMD64) crashed while opening a locally stored XL spreadsheet. A freak'n spreadsheet!!!!

Honest to god true story: a while back a former employer of mine switched from PC (Dells and a few Compaqs) over to Intel Core (solo) iMacs after the company changed ownership. The whole IT department was let go. Even the front desk girl could use, update, and maintain her iMac. On the plus side, I got about a half dozen PCs I turned into Hackintioshes!! Too bad they were all P4s and Pentium Dual Cores with GMA graphics....

re:DonnieBoy I have called this Troll out many times. He just keeps on spewing his own 2cents that is never backed up.

BTW I am no Apple fanboy, I am a technology enthusiast!
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Hardly...
Zc456 15th Jan 2011
@Bansaku
Take a chill pill. For an a tech enthusiast, you need to realize that the technology isn't perfect - not even if it's made by Apple.
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
The Danger is Microsoft 17th Jan 2011
@Zc456 - But I have to agree with Bansaku. Since switching to all Macs (25% with their old Windows OS installed in Paralles) our company now has 1 IT guy (instead of the 8 they had before) and people (from sales to admin to even engineering) feel more empowered (and some even smarter) by being able to "deal" with their own workstation without help from others.

With the occasional web-site that still requires IE 6+ there is rarely a problem that requires intervention.

You got it. I'm that sole remaining IT guy. But I'm there mostly for ERP application and database support.

Go Apple!
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RE: Android vs. Verizon iPhone storyline misses the big picture
jonbearfla@... 17th Jun
I was at a Verizon store the other day and it was very busy, most people were looking at the droid phones. One person was looking at the iPhone. It seems hard for iPhone to compete against huge screened droid phones. Perhaps iPhone 5 will correct this.

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