Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

Summary: Apple is facing high expectations for its fiscal third quarter earnings results, but in many respects the three months ending June 30 are really just a warm up for big gains ahead.

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Apple is facing high expectations for its fiscal third quarter earnings results, but in many respects the three months ending June 30 are really just a warm up for big gains ahead.

The company is expected to deliver third quarter earnings of $5.85 a share on revenue of $24.99 billion. Consensus estimates have been creeping higher in recent days and remain fluid based on Thomson Reuters' real-time tracking. There are significant wild cards as Apple's latest quarter will be a lull before a new iPhone, back-to-school shopping, a likely iPod refresh and the holiday season. For instance:

  • Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster noted that Mac sales may be a bit below expectations as consumers await new products in July. That view was due to NPD's recent sales estimates.
  • The iPhone tally is a bit of a mystery given the trade-offs between the device's first full quarter at Verizon, AT&T's $49 iPhone GS and the launch of the white iPhone.
  • iPad shipments missed some expectations last quarter, but Apple said June 6 that it sold 25 million iPads. Munster said that tally indicates about 8 million iPad units for the June quarter.

Here's a look at the metrics and expectations.

Analysts across the board are viewing the June quarter as a warm up act for the quarters ahead. Among the key items for Apple over the next six months.

  1. Mac growth after June. The June NPD data for Mac sales indicate a bit of a pause before new products. Mac should be a larger contributor with back-to-school sales.
  2. Additional carriers to distribute the iPhone around the world. Peter Misek, an analyst at Jefferies noted that Pegatron's June sales surged and that indicates strong CDMA iPhone demand. A new iPhone model is also expected.
  3. The launch of iCloud could ultimately drive device sales.

Meanwhile, Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu predicted that Apple can benefit from better component costs. "We continue to believe that Apple is positioned to outperform in this tough macroeconomic environment with its defendable strategic and structural advantages and its vertical integration," said Wu.

Also: CNET: Apple's third quarter: What to look for

Topics: Mobility, Apple, Enterprise Software, Hardware, iPhone, Smartphones

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13 comments
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  • RE: Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

    Instead of launching Lion, iPhone 4+, and updating Macs and iPods in the last few weeks of a quarter Apple is poised for a perfect storm of sales at the beginning if a quarter. The pent up demand will unleash a tsunami probably not cresting till Q2-12 with iPad 3. Apple has a proven reck record of well timed introductions that not only provide a 'pulse' to sales but also to Apple's stock and overall value.
    dheady@...
  • So when any other company has a slower quarter

    (which is normal and follow's their history over the years) they are "in trouble", yet Apple has a slow quarter, all's fine, it's just "A lull before the big bang".

    Just wondering.
    William Pharaoh
    • Well, yes and no.

      @William Pharaoh Analysts typically do make allowances for Dell, Microsoft, and Intel if a new Windows is about to come out, due to demand pending.

      But yeah, Apple tends to get the benefit of the doubt in a way those guys don't, which is surprising as Apple doesn't even pre-announce products the way they do (other than OSX Lion.)
      Mac_PC_FenceSitter
    • RE: Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

      @William Pharaoh
      This is app-religious experience in action :)
      paul2011
    • I guess you missed the first paragraph where it said

      expectations for Apple's third quarter were high. Followed up later by Analysts are also considering it a warm up quarter for quarter 4.

      So, for those who suffer from lack of reading comprehension, here's what the analysts actually said: We expect Apple to do very well in the third quarter, but it's going to pale compared to what they're going to do in the 4th quarter. Nowhere, except your fevered imagination, were analysts expecting a slow quarter.
      fr_gough
      • Right. So that excuses the blogger's sensational headline

        @fr_gough
        I guessed you missed the entire point of my post.
        William Pharaoh
      • @Pharoah

        Nope. Didn't miss it. Addressed it spot on. You deliberately misread an article to make up a fantasy about how Apple is excused for low performance. Which, of course, is even more laughable considering they actually had a blowout quarter.
        fr_gough
  • RE: Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

    I paid $32.67 for a XBOX 360 and my mom got a 17 inch Toshiba laptop for $94.83 being delivered to our house tomorrow by FedEX. I will never again pay expensive retail prices at stores. I even sold a 46 inch HDTV to my boss for $650 and it only cost me $52.78 to get. Here is the website we using to get all this stuff, BidsNew.comHERE
    Janelle8
  • iPhones, iPads, iPods...

    same old, same old...

    except, they're flatter, weigh an ounce less, and have shinier exteriors.

    Eventually, the iCrowd will get tired of having to keep up with iPple and having to "upgrade" their gadgets every time Apple thinks they have a "latest and greatest" product that their faithful will happily spend their money on.

    Eventually, the iCrowd will wise up and realize that, they're being had with all of those frequent and phony upgrades.
    adornoe
    • RE: Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

      @adornoe@... Could not have iSaid it better!
      jgoode@...
    • RE: Apple June quarter earnings: A lull before the big bang

      @adornoe@... Let me see if I got your post right...blah blah blah...I hate Apple...blah blah blah...facts don't concern me...blah blah blah...I hate Apple...blah blah blah...

      It must really piss you off that the "iCrowd" continues to grow like it does.
      non-biased
      • Stating facts is not about "hate"...

        I have nothing against Apple. I just hate the whole hysteria and the hype surrounding anything they do. They don't really contribute much new with their upgrade cycles, and people will just eat it up like it's free food for life at a local restaurant.

        So, exactly what is it that I said that is not truth?

        What was drastically different, as an example, between the first iPad and the iPad2? What was drastically different between the first iPhones and iPhone4? What is going to make the iPad3 and the iPhone5 worth the upgrade money that people will be required to plunk down for the privilege of getting the "latest and greatest"? Most people can still get by with their not so "old" iPhones and not so "old" iPads. Yet, Apple knows that many of those owners will feel "obligated" to "upgrade", and so, Apple knows that it can count on a continuous revenue stream from them.

        Instead of sounding so much like an Apple defender and an Apple fanboi, why not just look at the facts. When it comes to the facts, it's you that can't be bothered to look at them.

        And, hey, I don't really care if people want to buy Apple products or Microsoft's products or any other company's products. For what I'm doing, if I ever implement it, the more gadgets and PCs that people have, the better it would be for me.
        adornoe
  • What lull??

    I find it hard to believe that you can even think of there being a lull after this quarter had record sales for iphone (20.34m, 142% YoY growth, growth twice as high as IDC predictions for whole market) and 9.2m Ipads which are sold before they have even been made...
    tom.penkethman