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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Apple's iPad 3 refresh likely to kick off sales boom

By | February 14, 2012, 6:17am PST

Summary: The bottom line here is that even if half these reports pan out Apple is likely to see a significant refresh cycle for the iPad.

Apple is prepping an iPad 3 launch March 7, may be testing a smaller screen size and plans on packing a 4G wallop.

Add it up and the rumor mill seems to be kicking into overdrive and the main highlights go like this:

  • Lower screen sizes are possible as Apple aims to enter the lower end and defend against the Amazon Kindle Fire, says the Wall Street Journal.
  • The iPad 3 refresh could include a quad-core chip based on the latest rumors via iMore.
  • And Verizon and AT&T may be selling 4G versions of the iPad, the Journal reports again.

The bottom line here is that even if half these reports pan out Apple is likely to see a significant refresh cycle for the iPad. Apple could also include Siri voice recognition in the iPad.

Also: There’s not enough in the rumored iPad 3 specs for me to upgrade, how about you?

Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu said in a research note:

We believe this significant refresh will likely help drive higher iPad sales and help further differentiate from arguably the only real competitor in the market, Amazon’s Kindle Fire and not to mention the myriad of Google Android offerings out there. We are currently modeling 51 million iPad shipments for CY12 and believe this could turn out conservative.

Depending on when the iPad 3 is available, Apple may see a late March quarter pop. If not, the June quarter is likely to have a nice iPad 3 tailwind.

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Topics

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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Puedes conseguir el ipad en venezuela
mps9999 17th Feb
En venezuela hay tiendas de ipad puedes revisar esta pagina http://www.tiendamicro.com/lista/91757/ipad-tablets_1.php
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Yea its worked its way into corporations a bit also as a nice social toy. I am not knocking social toys. After all Apple has made gazillions from its best selling social toy; i.e. the iPhone.

However when it comes to the corporate world Microsoft Windows 8 on both AMD/Intel and ARM is going to kick butt, big time and leave the iPad on the periphery of the enterprise world.

iPad will continue to dominate among Consumers because it is just "so cool"
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@Nesivos Windows tablets have never made any significant in roads anywhere, including the enterprise. The iPad is the only tablet that's caught on in "corporate world", and it did so through the "back door" of BYOD. Windows 8 on ARM and Intel likely won't fare much better than previous Microsoft attempts, but, ironically, might succeed a bit more this time because of an iPad "halo effect." And that has got to drive Ballmer nuts.
@Nesivos I don't want something that's "so cool" I want something that returns my investment ...
@AdnanPirota...sound investments. then there is all the use you'd get out of a given Apple device. So it's all good:)

Pagan jim
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Fastest ROI of any tech
rstoeber Updated - 14th Feb
@AdnanPirota I have been working with small-to-mid-size companies to integrate iPads into their operations. These companies don't spend money freely. We are both giving computing devices to workers that never had a computer (carpenters, painters, plumbers) and replacing notebooks for people that don't really need a keyboard. In all cases, the iPads have paid for themselves in weeks, not even months - productivity improvements have been huge and very visible.

An interesting and unexpected side benefit is that older, low-tech workers have really taken to the iPads. After a lot of concern that they wouldn't be able to adapt to "computers" they really love the new tech in their toolbox (literally, in their toolbox in some cases).
@Nesivos
Reality suggests that MS stuff (even if it is technically superior; like the Zune and Kin) does not seem to be going anywhere with the next generation. From the posts I see here and also based on my personal experience, only middle aged MS developers seem to be interested in MS Tablets. The next generation is doing what our generation did to Unix, Minis and Mainframes. Our middle aged generation (young at that time) pushed towards MS (DOS and Windows). The next generation seems to be pushing towards iOS and Android with the same fervor. If corporate ITs NOW try to push MS stuff, they will see a rebellion among users. Users want a choice, and there will be some who choose MS too. All talk about how excellent MS stuff is (from middle aged managers and developers like us) does not have any bearing on the minds of users and next generation developers. Users have now gotten used to iOS and Android that is leading to a "crawl up" effect - the opposite of a trickle down effect I guess.
@iRMX... and is likely the cause for the general public's lack of enthusiasm regarding MS in mobile of late. Kin was advertised and had MS's name all over it and MS dropped it like a hot potato leaving a bad taste/feeling in a lot of consumers.

Pagan jim
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I can't agree there
William Farrel 14th Feb
@James Quinn
Kin was advertised and had MS's name all over it and MS dropped it like a hot potato leaving a bad taste/feeling in a lot of consumers

Actually, it's the reverse - nobody ever herd of the KIn, and nobody ever bought one, so who had a bad taste in their mouths? All the people that never knew of it's existence?
@iRMX Jeez, not at all ageist are ya. Middle-aged MS developers? The middle-aged generation pushed towards MS? How old are you, Kid? MS stuff doesn't sell because it's late to the game and an "also-ran". There's a distinct lack of innovation and leadership there. Pasting a new (and unusable) interface on the desktop OS and calling it good for tablets is a far cry from iOS and Android. Most of us middle-aged and senior IT folks see right through it.
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LOL!
William Farrel 14th Feb
@JoeFoerster
Most of us "old, middle aged, and even younger folk" could care less for Android. Been there, done that. Yawn

iOS, yeah we like that. Windows 8? most definatelly looking forward for that.

As for the rest of your post, I really had to laugh! Last time I looked, MS was earning litterally billions from their stuff.

But then nobody wants Windows, Office, XBox, Kinect.....
grin
@iRMX I can see possibly how someone might believe the zune is technically superior, but the kin???
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@Nesivos

I guess you never watch the news or work in the corporate environment, almost everyone on all the news shows has an iPad and it's the light weight tool to have at work.
@Nesivos Big difference between is and has. One is speculation at best, the other is "Fait accomplit"
@Nesivos
Whatever that is. PowerPoint slides, probably.
@Nesivos
I have found that people who refer to the new generation of Pads as toys do so because they can't grasp the impact this new mobile force brings to business. They seem to hang hopes on promises of devices that are unproven yet promise a link to technology they can understand, no matter how unlikely the claims are.

These Pad devices are the new order and they will slowly over come the present limitations, I see it happening already. At the front of this spear is the iPad for good or bad. MS has promised the world and based on their past performance and promises, it is unlikely that what they deliver is what they promised.
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Apple hooks more people into the upgrade treadmill. Spending $700 a year on a new iPad seems very expensive.
@Loverock Davidson- It is. My iPad 1 is still going strong though. An upgrade every 3-4 years sounds about right for a computing device.
@Loverock Davidson

once these tablet devices start going towards quad-core processors, and above 1GB of RAM, I see no reason for them to have at least a 3 to 4 year useful lifespan.

But you are right about spending $500 or more on a new iPad every year is expensive no matter how nice it is.
@smulji Even the iPad 1 is a very useful tool. It's not a question of specs, it's all about usefulness.
@Loverock Davidson- Sorry, once again you FAIL...base iPad is $499...

Again you show you are a clueless fool. Also, resell value is about half of what it retails for...so if I purchase a new iPad2 at $499, the new one comes out and I sell the old one for $250...guess what? I spend $250 for the new one total...repeat same cycle next year.

I have never paid full price on any Apple product after I buy the first iteration of it..but you wouldn't know that since you have your head so far up Ballmer's USB port you can't see daylight.
@Loverock Davidson- Nah.. Were looking at it as a alternative to providing a laptop. VDI, thin client desktop, and iPad for carrying around that does web apps or VDI if necessary for historical apps. We can keep them around for the normal cycle of 3 years.
@Loverock Davidson- It must really chap your a$$ that people are so happy with their iOS devices that they upgrade every cycle. Of course like most of your posts you don't use facts since most iPads sold are $500. My wife has an iPad 1 that is very useful to this day and I have an iPad 2. She wants the 2 so depending on what the 3 has I might upgrade, give the 2 to my wife and her 1 can go to our son to use in college. Sure, we will have upgraded every year but the previous units are not sitting around, they are still being used everyday. If the 3 isn't enough of an upgrade I will probably just pick up a discounted refurb 2 for $400.
Please don't buy Apple equipment ...
@AdnanPirota... simply better than the competition. It's almost like they custom make their stuff specifically to fit me. So give me one good reason why I should consider a lesser product that does not fit me well?

Pagan jim
@James Quinn AdnanPirota can't provide a reason other than his/her own small minded hate.
@AdnanPirota Why not?
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It will be called the iPad 2S
VintageComputerGuy 14th Feb
It will be called the iPad 2S. That's what I've been told.
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Haha
use_what_works_4_U 14th Feb
@VintageComputerGuy
Nice... happy
Made in China.
0 Votes
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So? What isn't?
James Quinn 14th Feb
@jheydens@... Just saying.

Pagan jim
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Except the processor
use_what_works_4_U 14th Feb
@jheydens@...
Very likely that the processor is made in Austin, Tx by Samsung.

But as the Pagan says, how is that any different from Dell, Asus, HP, and so on?
I don't get how people can justify, and are willing to shell out the 500-800 dollars on a tablet. At that cost I'm purchasing a developing device. And please don't tell me you can develop on this thing, or any other sub $1500 tablet.
@jakeZ2 ... So a highly mobile device that does what they need/want is justifiable to them. Maybe not you but you sir represent a niche.

Pagan jim
@jakeZ2 You are correct, tablets running mobile OSs are generally not so good for development. Laptops or desktops running a full size OS are much better for that task.
@Gritztastic Very true but that only matters if you are purchasing a device for that task.
0 Votes
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If it's not for you, then don't use it
use_what_works_4_U 14th Feb
@jakeZ2
That's not the use case for a tablet. This is like me asking why anyone would use a $2,000 workstation laptop (and here I'm thinking of Dell's 'Precision Workstation Laptop') for checking email and couch-surfing. Certainly you can do that. If you already have a need for a workstation, then there is no reason not to use it for your email and couch surfing. If, on the other hand, you mostly need Internet access and to play games, or to read documents while travelling, then your needs could be met by a tablet.

Really, why is it that we tend to assume *our* needs should define *everyone's* needs?
Anyone else think Apple should be doing this later in the year? After all how many millions of people just got an iPad2 for X-Mas? For how expensive these things are a yearly time span is ridiculous.
@Cylon Centurion ... I don't own an iPad yet. I've been watching and waiting for the device to develop and grow further. In the short time I've been watching the iPad it's OS has increased in capabilities and it's hardware has as well so I expect this third one may hit my sweet spot and perhaps I'll be getting one? Just because I purchase a 2011 car does not mean I'm going to purchase the next 2012 model but more likely will be getting a 2021 model still that does not mean my timing is the same as everyone else and a guy might have bought a 1992 model and the 2012 is what he is waiting for:) And so forth and so on.

Pagan jim
@Cylon Centurion

If you are solely focused on the replacement market, a yearly upgrade may be too often, but responding to competition from Amazon, B&N, Windows, Google - maybe not.
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@Cylon Centurion
If you're already thinking "I just got my shiny new ... I can't wait for the next one" then maybe you *should have* waited for the next one to begin with.

To say that a manufacturer should not continue to improve a product just because a lot of people bought the last one seems a tad absurd to me. Should Motorola hold off on the next RAZR if a lot of people buy the current one? Of course not.
I love my iPad, but for a better Office/email experience coupled with tighter integration with my other productivity apps, I would move to a Win 8 ARM powered tablet in a heartbeat. There are several apps I use very often, but those will get written for Win 8 in a hot second (Kindle reader, alarm clock, weather, etc.). At the end of the day, iPad will always dominate in the public, but the enterprise will prefer something from MS that will be easier to manage, will be better integrated with existing apps, and will offer a similar (if not better?) experience with the hardware.

Apple fanbois have convinced themselves Apple has "won" whatever that means, and anyone saying something to the contrary is attacked. Such a small thinking group.
@dcristof
+1
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Come sunset
matthew_maurice Updated - 14th Feb
@dcristof you may be very surprised. After the iPad experience the enterprise will be a much harder sell for Win 8 tablets, especially on ARM. I'm not saying ever corp IT is going to ignore WOA, but iOS has take a lot of the advantage away from MS.
@matthew_maurice
Does WOA need 97% marketshare to be considered a success? Of course not every corp IT is going to buy WOA tablets but they don't need to.

I welcome strong competition if that is what WOA ends up being. I'm fully prepared for it to suck big time but while some here would cheer at WOA sucking and failing in the marketplace, I would view that as a loss for consumers. Microsoft and OEMs releasing good tablets is a positive for the marketplace, even if it means that Apple loses their monopoly. Right now the market is sick. WOA is the best chance this market has of recovery. I'm prepared for WOA to lose but hoping for it to win. I'm also hoping that iPad continues to win. They can both win, it's okay.
0 Votes
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Careful there
use_what_works_4_U Updated - 14th Feb
@toddbottom
You're sounding like Steve Jobs circa 1997

"Apple doesnt have to lose for Microsoft to win. Microsoft doesnt have to lose for Apple to win"
>S Jobs at WWDC 1997. When asked about Apples low marketshare of the PC Market.
"You're sounding like Steve Jobs circa 1997"

And he was right. As much as I dislike Steve Jobs as a man (I always thought he was scum) there can be no denying that he was smart.
0 Votes
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@dcristof yet you own an iPad...
@CowLauncher
So? What does that have to do with anything? The moment you own an Apple product, you have to forever believe that Apple is the best at everything and that you will never consider ever buying anything made by anyone other than Apple?

Or does your comment have a point that actually makes sense?
@CowLauncher
... when it comes to business.
0 Votes
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En venezuela hay tiendas de ipad puedes revisar esta pagina http://www.tiendamicro.com/lista/91757/ipad-tablets_1.php

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