Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

Summary: The launch of the iPhone 4 June 24 is expected to give Apple a strong kick to its June quarter, according to analysts.

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The launch of the iPhone 4 June 24 is expected to give Apple a strong kick to its June quarter, according to analysts.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster raised his price target on Apple to $348 from $330 based on iPhone 4. In a research note, Munster wrote:

We are now modeling for 9.5m iPhone units in the launch quarter (up from 8.5m previously) adding $610m (4%) in revenue and $0.12 to our June quarter EPS estimate. Apple sold 1m iPhone 3GS models in 3 days, so with 6 days of sales of the iPhone 4 in the June quarter, we believe the additional 1m units is achievable. We are also raising our September iPhone estimates from 9.0m to 9.5m.

The big question is whether Munster's new target is conservative. Many analysts are expecting a strong iPhone upgrade cycle. The iPhone 4 may sell more than 1 million units in 2 days. It should top the iPhone 3GS debut.

Indeed, AT&T's move to allow iPhone users to upgrade earlier should goose results. Munster added:

AT&T has pulled forward existing iPhone users' eligibility for upgrade pricing by up to 6 months. In other words, all early iPhone 3GS buyers will be eligible for upgrade pricing on the iPhone 4, but last year early iPhone 3G buyers were not eligible for the iPhone 3GS upgrade pricing. Specifically, we believe that the 8.4m iPhone users activated at AT&T between the Sept-08 and Jun-09 quarters will be eligible for upgrade pricing.

Other analysts like Barclays Capital's Ben Reitzes are also projecting an iPhone 4 pop. "We believe demand for the iPhone will be driven by enhanced features including a thinner design, a higher resolution display, new video chat capabilities and new iOS 4 software that allows for multitasking," said Reitzes.

In July, Apple is expected to report fiscal third quarter earnings of $2.98 a share on revenue of $14.3 billion.

Related: AT&T: What Apple's iPhone 4 means for its business

Topics: Hardware, Apple, iPhone, Mobility, Smartphones

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9 comments
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  • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

    The Iphone has sold out completely, in both the Apple store and AT & T, it better be worth the hype: http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/apple-inc-iphone-4-pre-orders-sold-out-analyst-raises-sales-estimates-aapl-t
    shandel
    • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

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  • Conservitive numbers by Munster.

    I think this phone will break all types of record. AT&T already experienced "the busiest online sales day in AT&T history".

    Everyone I speak to (none geeks) said they will be upgrading to the iPhone 4.
    dave95.
  • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

    really really sold out! analysts just upgraded apple: http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/apple-inc-iphone-4-pre-orders-sold-out-analyst-raises-sales-estimates-aapl-t
    shandel
  • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

    I don't think the 'early out' deal is goosing sales all that much. I paid full boat for a 3G two years ago. I think a lot of it has to do with two factors:
    1. It's time to cycle out the old ones. Apple has built a huge base of this device over the past three years, but three years, two years, is a long time for this sort of thing, especially considering the additional features that have piled on since I purchased mine two years ago. Last year the 3Gs didn't have enough oomph to cause me to eat another year's contract. This year I get all the features I passed on last year and a dozen or so more along with a new device.
    2. Apple has another winner. Plain and simple Apple sets the bar for this sort of thing. Sure HTC and other device makers make some quality product, but you can't explain iPhone sales away on some rabid Apple fan bois. JD Powers along with every other industry measure puts Apple at the head of the pack for quality product and customer service. Will they ever dominate the smart phone market like Windows does the commodity PC OS market? I wouldn't expect them to as that isn't the way Apple does business, i.e., they don't dive for the low end.
    In full disclosure I used to be a Certified Apple Developer and ran a nearly Mac only consultation firm for a dozen years and am still an Apple enthusiast and Mac user. That said, I've also worked on every computer from a mainframe to a CoCo and nearly always found Apple products to be superior in every aspect (Ok, the 90's kinda sucked, but they did for everyone).
    dheady@...
    • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

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  • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

    As an end user, I can say it was a very frustrating experience...

    POC_POC
    randy.baker@...
  • RE: Apple's iPhone 4 expected to add quarterly kick

    Each version has sold far more than the previous generation. iPhone is unstoppable.
    comp_indiana