Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Exclusive: Microsoft looking to 2015 for next-gen Xbox release?

By | March 21, 2011, 4:26am PDT

Summary: It has been almost 6 years since the release of the Xbox 360. Will we have to wait for 2015 until Microsoft unveils a new Xbox? It appears we just might…

Xbox 2015?

Xbox 2015?

Directly on the heels of discovering an internal Microsoft video showing WGX’s vision for ubiquitous gaming across platforms (Xbox, Windows, Windows Phone et al), I have now stumbled upon an incredibly tiny-though-significant morsel from a designer Microsoft has brought on-board to collaborate with their IEB (Interactive Entertainment Business) Design group to investigate future user experience scenarios and hardware for the Xbox circa 2015.

Posted just yesterday (3/20/2011) on the Web portfolio of one Ben Peterson, here is a screen shot of the noted confidential project as it currently resides (click the image to see it at full size):

 

Microsoft Xbox: Confidential / Collaboration with Microsoft’s IEB Design group investigating future user experiences and hardware for 2015. *Work samples only permissible in person.* (March 2011)

We can glean from the noted March 2011 date above that this is a completely new project just getting underway. As for the black devices we see, obviously he did not want to disclose more than a huge tease. The top half looks like a stand of some sort with something attached to the top if it while the bottom half looks like a zoomed-in section of a Kinect-shaped device, but that’s merely guess work on my behalf, of course.

The main question currently burning in my mind is if Microsoft is simply aiming to utilize the Xbox 360 platform in 2015 and just keep introducing new devices, or if they’re going to go big and release a whole new console with a game-changing user experience accompanying it. Personally, I’m thinking the latter. One reason I say this is because 2015 is 4 years away. That would put the Xbox 360 at almost 10 years on the market. I can’t see the Xbox 360 platform lasting beyond another 4 years.

Also, consider the Nintendo 3DS, if you will. It’s a device that gives us a completely new gaming experience by being the first to utilize built-in 3D technology like it does. Be it visually, interactively, or otherwise, I think Microsoft is going to shoot for a similar approach via the implementation of technology based on innovation achieved by in-house research and development; not simply create a product encompassing the familiar.

Unlike the Nintendo 3DS, though, I’m not sure that Microsoft will take the 3D route. If they do, I have no doubt they are working on addressing the issues that all but secure the death of 3D as it’s currently implemented in cinema and elsewhere. Not to mention the headaches, eye strain, and other adverse effects many people experience when spending time immersed in current 3D technologies.

Whatever the case may be, the 2015 time frame is one that gives Microsoft considerable time for R&D, prototyping, production, and marketing planning, so I don’t see this as being too far off the mark from Microsoft planning a big release. Personally, I’m still a PC gamer, so I wouldn’t know where to begin with suggestions or recommendations for Microsoft’s projections for 2015. With that in mind, I’m relying on all of you console gamers out there to provide some feedback in this space!

What kind of advancements would YOU like to see on the next generation of Xbox hardware? Do you think a more powerful console is in need at this point or are you satisfied with how games currently look and perform? Also, how about user experience? Has your Kinect enhanced your gaming experience or do you feel Microsoft fell short of the mark?

Let us hear from you in the comments below!

3/22/2011 Update: Fellow CBSi blog GameSpot picked up on this story yesterday and sought to find out what they could from either Microsoft or Ben Peterson. Their update included a comment from Eurogamer who heard from Ben: “I’m a student designer, it’s not real.” There is additional evidence to suggest that Mr. Peterson hasn’t been completely honest with other work he claims he has been a part of in his portfolio, as you can read here.

Well, I’m still not sure which side to believe. Personally, I couldn’t care less about the actual date or release of a new Xbox release because I’m still a steadfast PC gamer. With that said, I did a little bit of URL hacking back when I first discovered this guy’s profile and ran across the following image (which I didn’t post because I didn’t find it relevant to at the time):

To note, the original URL that image was tied to was also discovered by someone after this story went live yesterday as you can see here, although it is now currently a dead link.

At any rate, WWU ID? A quick Google search revealed Western Washington University: Industrial Design. The school has an address of 516 High St. Bellingham, WA 98225 and it’s no secret that Microsoft (located in Redmond, WA) loves to utilize local talent for their design projects. After finding that bit of information, I decided to see if Ben Peterson was listed anywhere on WWU’s site via the following Google query: site:wwu.edu “Ben Peterson”

Lo and behold, he is located here on a WWU “Staff Information” page under a section titled “technology assistants,” about 1/4 down the page. His noted programs of expertise? Illustrator, Photoshop, and Premiere — all programs that would make one capable of taking part in such a project.

So, at the very least, the conclusion I’m drawing is that I don’t quite buy his explanation that this was simply a fake on his behalf — especially now that we have evidence suggesting that it is/was his university that likely has/had the partnership with Microsoft IEB; not just him. This may also explain the inconsistencies GameSpot pointed out in their article. Lastly, if this was all just one big fake/hoax, then why did he remove it from his site when the story spread like wildfire?

Again, I have no motives for wanting to believe that this really is just something more than a fake, but I still see compelling evidence to the contrary. For the time being, at least.

-Stephen Chapman
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Stephen Chapman

Stephen is a freelance writer based in Charlotte, NC.

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RE: Exclusive: Microsoft looking to 2015 for next-gen Xbox release?
wxdork 25th May
Just please leave out the red ring of doom from the new system.
Will their next gen console utilize Direct3D 11? I am sure they will
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Don't think so.
asdacap 21st Mar 2011
@shellcodes_coder
It should be using Direct3D 13
@asdacap
Another important question regarding the next generation of consoles is whether or not they will be back-compatible with current games.
Four years seems like a long wait.

I'm certain that the console will be much more powerful than the last gen, but in some ways I think more processor for AI is more important than more graphics horsepower. An an indie developer I can easily crush the CPUs with physics and AI while the GPU laughs at me.

For developers, more graphics horsepower is something of a double-edged sword. The more power you have the more you can do, but also the more expensive it becomes to write a game that graphically keeps up with everyone else.

Seems like a large part of the longevity of the current gen of consoles is due to the fact that fully utilizing all their resources is already such an enormously complicated and expensive process. Given that it's not realistic to now expect market growth to help offset higher graphics development costs we may already be at an inflection point where the price points of games will not support much higher graphics development costs.
@SlithyTove Libraries may help though.

"Did gyre and gimble in the Wabe..."
@SlithyTove

"An an indie developer I can easily crush the CPUs with physics and AI . . ."

With the advances in DirectX 10 & 11, you can actually do that stuff on the GPU on a PC.

Yeah, we need to add that to the consoles.
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First of all
anothersmartguy 21st Mar 2011
it should run Windows. So Console->PC game porting can be much easier.
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@anothersmartguy Are you kidding??? I'm sorry but that's a no-go...if you want a console to run Windows 7 build a gaming rig....there should be ZERO OS overhead playing console games....at a minimum strip it down to a kernel-level OS and then run the games.
@bizarrosteveballmer Why do you think it would be windows 7. They said 2015. It might be windows 9 or 10.
@bizarrosteveballmer

Windows needs a gaming mode first - that automatically kills Internet enabled services everytime a full screen game is being run. That way you don't have a bunch of jack asses running around your server, all the while downloading 10 torrents, and running AV scans.
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I don't see the problem...
adornoe@... 21st Mar 2011
With mult-core processors and multiple OSes and multiple monitors running at the same time, but in different cores, the gaming wouldn't have to take resources from the machine, since the machine will be capable of doing many different chores at the same time.

Furthermore, even today we have PCs with 6 and more cores, so, right now we could run gaming and regular work/entertainment at the same time.
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@anothersmartguy In my opinion it would be better for MS, if they would give up PC=Office *AND* Gaming platform, in the long run.
I think they need to get away from the giant noisy box thing. Think Roku. Also more connectivity to SmartPhones and other devices. They should also support 3D. I love what Sony has done. Playing games in 3d on a big screen is really fun.
I think the CPU & GPU should be improved. Adding 3-D and more life like rendering will task the current CPU & GPU. Microsoft should also implement a more robust type of facetime . The game players should show the real face of the player on RPG's.
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Steve, honestly...
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate 21st Mar 2011
How does something at least four years in the future generate interest?

Really. Anybody.
Bueller?
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Contributr
@Dietrich: Well, considering how far and wide this story has now spread, I would say quite a bit of interest has been shown in something at least four years in the future! It's the prospect of a new Xbox console that most likely lures. At that, 2015 seems to be a date that jives with other random mentions out of the Microsoft camp where the Xbox is concerned.

Maybe if the Xbox ran Linux, you would be a little more interested? lol. Only kidding. happy

-Stephen
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@StephenChapman Have they even utilized all three processors on the current system?
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Contributr
To be honest...
StephenChapman 21st Mar 2011
@bizarrosteveballmer I have absolutely no idea. Since I'm not a console gamer and don't keep up with the granular details of how much games have pushed the 360, I'm the last person who would have sound advice there.

I do remember talk of Crytek supposedly being able to max out the processing and graphical capabilities of both the 360 and PS3 with CryEngine 3, but I don't think they carried that over into Crysis 2. At that, I'm not even sure if all three processors (or however many they have in the system) are factory-enabled!

I suppose I could just search Google to answer some of my own questions here and appear more informed on the topic, but I can't be arsed at the moment. lol. grin

-Stephen
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Crippled by arrogance
john_gillespie@... 21st Mar 2011
Exactly! Maybe they will recognize the mistake they made by stubbornly sticking to DVD HD. Maybe the next console will have BluRay but by that time the new PS4 with RedRay will be here.
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Dying technology
itpro_z 21st Mar 2011
@john_gillespie@..., BluRay is withering on the vine, so probably won't even still exist in 2015. MS made the smart move by staying away from Sony's boondoggle.
@john_gillespie@... RedRay = DVD. Or am I missing something?
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RedRay?
cosmoanu87 28th Mar 2011
@john_gillespie@... RedRay Seriously?? Thats like putting DVD back instead :P
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate A new XBox is long overdue. As much as I despise consoles to begin with, the current XBox is showing it's age.
Xbox360/Kinect users in the "reservation" and to "prevent" them from jumping to another new or updated game system that might come up before the XBox "nextgen" is ready. Who would go with a new version of WII or a new version of Playstation, when the new XBox2015 is "just around" the corner?
I think they should change the Red Ring of Death to a new color. The red one is starting to bore me... LOL
Will it be the xBox 720 happy
Get rid of the CD ROM Games. Use a USB 3 port and have the games distributed on thumb drives. Fix the heat problem and improve the engineering/build quality of the hardware.
@gregsellers@... Here's a couple problems with your thumb drive suggestion:

1. Security. Presuming thumb drives are, essentially, the same in 4 years as they are now, making sure they're secure from casual copying will be a real pain. Microsoft would have to engineer the same kind of file system protection they have on their DVDs, but it would only be a matter of time before that's cracked on a flash drive. Look how fast utilities were out to mod saves on a flash drive after Microsoft released the USB Storage Device dashboard update.

2. Capacity. If we're looking 4 years into the future, we're talking about games that would take, comparable to today's terms, AT LEAST a full Blu-ray disk. That would mean needing a lot of very high capacity flash drives, even if you compress the data to be installed to local storage. Which brings me to:

3. Price. Bulk copies of pressed polyurethane are cheap. Buying millions of flash drives of a capacity high enough to hold the ENTIRE game? Not so cheap. Even if we do a best case hypothetical where flash drives memory cost has tanked as low as $.25 per gigabyte, you'd need flash drives that are 25-40gb in capacity. That's $6.25 - $10 per flash drive game and while that may not sound like a lot, that's a MASSIVE increase over the cost of mass production of disk media.

I think it would be more likely that Microsoft would keep some form of disk media, but really push for digital distribution.
2015 is too long. I could see fall 2013 or early 2014 as the launch date. Anyway, they need bluray, updated processor, updated GPU, new cooling system and more Memory. Did I say memory? More Memory.
happy
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This is why I don't like Consoles
voska1 21st Mar 2011
The tech is sold old compared what you have on PC.
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@voska1

Have you not looked at most shipping systems? Most systems are shipping with i3's and low end i5's and dual core athlon's. the only people buying 4+ core systems are gamers.
If they can leverage Kinect with 3-D technology, well that would be amazing. Seems like a natural progression to me.
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Full Scene Anti-Aliasing
betelgeuse68 21st Mar 2011
That's what I would like to see. If it's one thing that drove me bonkers with the 360 on flat panels it's the "jaggies". I can hook up my PC to my HDTV by way of HDMI and the PC version always looks better. Sometimes it's just the plain and simple fact that my PC readily affords me Full Scene Anti-Aliasing whereas the 360 doesn't. FSAA is computationally expensive and it's understandable it was omitted many years ago to cut down on the cost of hardware, but by 2015, I sure as hell hope FSAA isn't something that the console makers decide to ignore because of cost.

-M
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Get A Better Disc Technology!
bizarrosteveballmer 21st Mar 2011
HD croaked out the gate, Blu-ray isn't doing much better....

They really need something for storage.
We have an XBOX 360 slim with Kinect. The kids love it. I enjoy playing the games also. Currently, the Kinect games are not actuate enough for serous gamers, but that will improve (likely within the year) to accomidate serous gamers. Keep in minde that the current software is using 1/2 the resolution the sensor hardware is sending to the software. They are suppose to add support for hand detection (like is the hand open or closed, which fingers are in what position). I also hear they are going to continue to merge the 3 screens (XBOX, Windows PC, WP7). This includes adding silverlight to XBOX.

So what I would like to see from the next XBOX console is:

1) Merge in Windows Media Center, TV, and if possible 3D capabilites (I'm not convinced this will be good enough except for moves with glasses or small screens with fixed user eye locations). So, now a home PC is also an XBOX with Kinect
2) Horsepower and even better Kinect sensor so that the console can support more algorithoms that are more complex for great gaming in more lighting conditions.
3) Maybe use Windows Embedded Compact Addition with the metro interface to run the console (I think that is the direction of the Windows Phone).
4) Game, move, music, avatar, etc., marketplace for XBOX, Phone, Slate computers (note that this would cover the PC since the XBOX would be the consumer PC as well).
5) Include Internet browsing and social media through out the system.
6) Full wireless keyboard optional or use a slate like screen for the keyboard and the TV as the display.
7) Have an optional bio identification that the user can determine which is used instead of passwords. So, identical twins can specify voice identification or fingerprint. Someone else could use Kinect visual identification.

How is that for a start . . .
I personally am not sure about a new console because im not sure what they can actually change graphics wise. If anything they should boost the visuals a little any work more on AI. i didnt like the kinetic and have not bought one because it takes the fun out of gaming, you carnt actual sit and get involved in a games story if your jumping about like a idiot. So if they remove the control pads completely and turn ME and YOU into the controllers i WILL NOT be buying the next generation xbox.
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@lpjy You're just not paying attention to MS when it comes to KINECT -- it's not intended to attract "hard-core" gamers or replace the standard controller for intensive action games like FPS. It's a response to the popularity of the Wii that cost MS huge market share in consoles. MS may be late to that game, but it is now the leader in motion-control technology. MS has stated repeatedly, however, that controller-based gaming is their core client group, and KINECT development will not infringe on or divert resources from that priority group. Why do so many suggest that you can't expand a base product with new peripherals without hurting the original market? It's just called "growth."
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@spyder3010 Riiiiiiiight.. Microsoft has been trying to rip off Nintendo for years now. Avatar rip off of Mii's, now Kinect trying to ride the Wii's coattails.

Growth? Where, Craigslist? Because that's the only growth I see: The volume of people selling their Kinect units there. If, as others have stated, Blu-ray is Sony's "boondoggle", Kinect is Microsoft's. Look at 2011... they're banking on it nearly exclusively to carry them for very long periods of time between exclusive, core, games.

And, I'm sorry, I can't trust Microsoft after having been an early adopter of Live and a paying subscriber until January of this year. I've watched them talk a big game about new features that they just throw away and abandon: Primetime Channel, anyone? 1vs100, anyone? Game Room, anyone? Why should I possibly believe Kinect is going to be any different?
by then, SSD's will be commonplace. The RAM will be lightening fast and GPU's will be realtime HDTV engines, if not the new 4k resolution.

I already have customers asking if we can rig their Kinect to their HP Touchsmart (or their TV) for Minority Report style computing. I would guess this will become more commonplace. (adios Apple)

The one thing nobody asks for is 3D.
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Browser
andre9182 21st Mar 2011
Would love to see IE9 incorporated into the console for browsing on the TV.
Stick a FPGA in there.

It would be harder to program for but that would be a mean addition to the various processors already in there; a dynamic hardware chip that can be used for whatever the game needs most at that moment.
"that this is a completely new project just getting underway."

I hope so. It's about time the consoles got a long-needed upgrade. Their current tech is long outdated, and they are all in serious need of a refresh.

Too bad it won't happen until 2015, if your source is right sad.

"Also, consider the Nintendo 3DS, if you will. It?s a device that gives us a completely new gaming experience by being the first to utilize built-in 3D technology like it does."

And I do hope it's a full blown console, not a portable unit. The Xbox needs a major refresh more than Microsoft needs a portable game player.

"What kind of advancements would YOU like to see on the next generation of Xbox hardware?"

At the very least, pull the hardware back up to be competitive with high-end PC rigs. It's already very out of date by today's standards, and it's gonna be 10 years out of date by 2015. I'll gladly put my gaming machine up against any of the major consoles on the market right now.

I'm kinda surprised that consoles have stagnated for so long, considering that's where most of the games are. Why is this refresh taking so painfully long compared to previous ones?
Hmmm, by 2015, I'm expecting it to run at least at the same graphic level of our current high-end PC graphics, which would certainly run in DX11 (or maybe even DX12 by then)... Something I think the PS3 (or future versions of the Playstation) will then lag behind since OpenGL (PS3's current graphics rendering platform) is way behind of what DirectX currently can deliver... Unless the OpenGL people can fully update OpenGL (to maybe OpenGL5 with some awesome stuff that can go on par with DX11 right now by 2015), I could see how Sony should be scared of what the future of Xbox can be... The xbox360 is currently limited to DX9c, which while is decent, is way past to what DX11 can show right NOW.

Maybe the xbox2015 (shall we codename it that way?) will also have more cores (8-cores maybe) and should be on par with current high-end PC systems of 2011.

Then again, I'll have to wait and see how things turn up.
That gives them 4 years to get some exclusives again! Microsoft needs to focus on regaining developers right now because, by the end of this year, the only three triple-A exclusives they're going to have are Halo (343 Industries), Fable (Lionhead Studios) and Forza (Turn10 Studios). Gears of War concludes the trilogy this fall and the game was always slated to be nothing more than a trilogy; Not to mention Epic Games' Mike Capps dropped a "we'd love to put Gears on PS3" bomb back at GDC (the prospect isn't farfetched, because they own ALL rights to the franchise).

In the last two years, Microsoft have lost many of the exclusive developers who helped make the 360 what it was. They can plan to make the best hardware ever (which would be a welcome change from having 5 consoles brick in 4 years), but hardware will be meaningless without core exclusives. Fable and Forza can only go so far, and it remains to be seen the direction 343 takes Halo post-Bungie.
the xbox360 already uses a motorolla 3 core cpu,so for next gen microshaft should get rid of the stupid avatars, and go back to the full graphic dashboard so the points you spent on themes would not be meaningless anymore. right now you cannot see the theme for all the other stuff on the dash. also the different channels on the dashboard should have a user option to display or not display. not just the welcome screen....
so a 6 core cpu, combined with a multi GPU system would allow games to ROCK! and get away from trying to tack over the PC share of the entertainment market (ie facebook, twitter, netflix). go back to being a gameing console, and not a social networking device.
Just please leave out the red ring of doom from the new system.

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