Forrester Research said Tuesday that it is cutting its technology spending forecast for 2009, but raising estimates for 2008.
In a nutshell, Forrester now projects 2008 technology spending growth of 5.4 percent, up from 3.4 percent. In 2009, Forrester is projecting growth of 6.1 percent, down from 9.4 percent. Forrester detailed its new projections to clients in a 35 slide presentation.
Here's what it means: Forrester originally projected that an economic slowdown would put the kibosh on tech spending in the first half of 2008. It never came. But in light of Wall Street's meltdown and warnings about weak demand from Dell and Ingram Micro Forrester is now projecting a weak second half of 2008 and first half of 2009.
The money slide:
Forrester's projection sounds about right, but there are multiple cross currents under the IT spending predictions.
Consider the following:
- Microsoft is seeing no slowdown in desktop software;
- HP continues to roll amid the EDS integration as does IBM (unless they kill each other in a service duel);
- Dell is getting thumped;
- Cisco is cautious;
- Ingram Micro sees a slowdown;
- Spending surveys are inconclusive.
In other words, throw a few darts and you may be able to guess IT spending too.
Also see: Tech giants may face dollar daze