Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

Summary: IDC's crystal ball for the smartphone industry in 2015 may be a bit cracked. Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 the No. 2 operating system behind Android courtesy of the Nokia deal. Will most Symbian users really jump to Microsoft?

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IDC's outlook for the smartphone industry in 2015 has Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 the No. 2 operating system behind Android. Microsoft's global surge will come via its partnership with Nokia.

Here's the money chart for IDC's somewhat cracked crystal ball:

In a nutshell, IDC is assuming that all Nokia users will stay loyal to the brand and become Windows Phone 7 users.

IDC analyst Ramos Llamas said:

Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences. The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.

Mary Jo Foley noted:

So how is Windows Phone OS going to catapult to No. 2 in four years? If you look at IDC’s chart, it will largely happen by picking up almost all the Symbian share, according to IDC. IDC is predicting the 20.9 percent Symbian share will be down to .2 percent by 2015. I’m sure Microsoft is counting on getting a hefty share boost from its $1 billion-plus investment in Nokia, but will the Softies manage to hold onto almost all the Symbian base, as Nokia tries to wean them from Symbian? I’d think, given some Nokia users’ skepticism about the sanity of the deal, more than a few might go Android or iOS.

Indeed, IDC's projections are bunk. For starters, the smartphone industry is moving too fast to make predictions for 2015. But there are a lot of other reasons to question IDC's assumptions for 2015. Here are four:

  1. Nokia isn't likely to hold smartphone share. Let's see Nokia won't have a barrage of Windows Phone 7 phones in the market until 2012. Nokia is essentially taking a year off while other handset makers (Samsung, HTC, RIM, Apple, Motorola) keep pumping out smartphones. Nokia is a no-show in the U.S. and its possible that folks that leave the handset maker in 2011 may not come back.
  2. Windows Phone 7 may not appeal to all Symbian users. How do you assume that most Symbian users will go to Microsoft? Because Nokia says so? The logic doesn't work. Symbian users are likely to watch iOS, RIM's QNX and Android too. Peer pressure may play a role also.
  3. The smartphone industry moves at light speed and four years is an eternity. Any projection beyond 2012 is suspect to me. Four years ago no one saw Apple's iOS coming. Android didn't exist.
  4. IDC's projection assumes near flawless execution. If Nokia's timetables slip for Windows Phone 7 devices, it will have to close a larger market share gap by 2015. On the other side, Microsoft has to show it can evolve Windows Phone 7. Neither partner can run in place. More than 20 percent market share in 2015 is aggressive.

Related:

Topics: Mobility, Apple, Hardware, Microsoft, Nokia, Operating Systems, Smartphones, Software, Windows

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  • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

    The report is pretty accurate. There is a lot of potential to pick up new WP7 users with the Nokia deal. All WP7 are happy with their phones, they spread that happiness to others and by word of mouth more people will start using WP7. I can easily see WP7 being second in 4 years.
    Loverock Davidson
    • You know how it goes with these bloggers -

      @Loverock Davidson
      The numbers are ALWAYS right when they show a non MS product growing, but ALWAYS wrong when the show an MS product growing.

      Was Larry one of the people who said Android wouln't pass iOS? Not sure on that.
      Will Farrell
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @Will Farrell
        Not sure about that, I've never seen Larry comment too much on Apple.
        Loverock Davidson
      • You know how it goes with Loverock and Will Farrell -

        @Will Farrell
        The numbers are ALWAYS right when they show a MS product growing, but ALWAYS wrong when the show a non MS product growing
        anono
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @Will Farrell
        Well normally I like to try to get under Loverock's skin, but obviously the governing body who regulate and decide the fate of all these lawsuits right now gives them plenty of insider information on their projections. Do you think IDC might be thinking that the outcome of all these Nokia lawsuits might be detrimental to Apple? ....and obviously IDC is saying Nokia with such overwhelming numbers of patents and dollars spent on being the largest phone maker in the World in a partnership with Microsoft sharing plan for App Store revenue with little or no license fees for WP7 would be a heck of a deal.

        But the Reality is that Microsoft's WinMo phones haven't suddenly disapeared either. When would indicate that if they can convert a good portion of both present WinMo phone users and Nokia phone users, then most likely that's all they'd need to meet IDC projections.

        I'm not sure that IDC may be preparing us for a negative outcome on all these lawsuits against Apple too. Why else would they have Apple dropping 8% this year? What's going on with the yearly June new model's arrival? If I had Apple stock, I'd be nervous if they blew past that June launch of iPhone5.

        No two ways about it..... the IDC knows some things Larry Digman doesn't and I don't think think be giving us a loss of 8 to 10% market share over a few years with the products they have on market now. So do they think Apple is going to put out crappy products over this time? I don't think so and therefore something is about to go wrong for Apple or at least that what the IDC is thinking or knowing!!!

        All I know, is I'd take the IDC's word over Larry Digman's any day!!!
        Monarky
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson <br><br>and the Sinclair X-1 is going to dominate the world in personal transport.
      Alan Smithie
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson

      Are you retarded?
      Do you even know what people are using day to day?
      It's not windows 7 devices! Hell even Corporate IT is moving away or holding firm until they can see what this new OS does.
      Given four years assumes that everyone else will remain stagnate while they catch up, unrealistic.......
      Havoktek
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @Havoktek
        Give it time and these business users will see how attractive WP7 can be.
        Loverock Davidson
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @Loverock Davidson

        As a corporate IT type, WP7 has absolutely no appeal at this time. If nothing else, compared to Blackberry, iOS, Android or even earlier Windows Mobile implementations, it's lack of Exchange ActiveSync capability mandates a simple no. For instance, most of the sites I have anything to do with require on device and on removeable storage encryption. Blackberry and iOS handle this with no problems, Android does in some cases and others simply lie and say they do while WP7 does not support this (and, at least, is honest about not doing so). I won't even get into the password mess.

        For the same security reasons that require the on device encryption, the "Allow Non-provisionable Devices" policy is not likely to be implemented in the next eternity.

        Hmmm... take that "simple no" and make it a "<b>HELL NO!!!</b>.
        DNSB
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson

      I've seen Windows Mobile 7 and will be getting my first Android 2.2 phone, the Epic 4G in June. I currently have a Windows Mobile 6.1 Professional phone and I'm looking forward to the upgrade! Most of my co-workers have iPhones and some type of Android-powered phone. The overwhelming majority do not have Windows Mobile 7 and aren't in a hurry to give Microsoft a chance when their existing phones work great.
      DonRupertBitByte
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @DonRupertBitByte
        Ok, your mistake but we don't want to hear you crying come June.
        Loverock Davidson
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson Ha ha ha ha... Ha ha.. LOL... ROTFLMAO... Ha ha... Thanks for the laugh LD... All 49,000 WP7 users are happy...
      browser.
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @browser.
        Yes they are happy, I'd even say they are the happest of the smart phone users.
        Loverock Davidson
    • All libyan people are happy with Muammar Gaddafi

      @Loverock Davidson

      If All WP7 users are happy with their phones, then all libyan people are happy with Muammar Gaddafi !

      http://pantestmb.blogspot.com/2011/03/wp7-wtf.html

      Microsoft is bricking their customer's WP7 phones ;
      Any business that buys Windows Phone 7 is committing suicide. Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 should not be associated with the enterprise in any way at all ...
      auntaru
      • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

        @auntaru But it works so well with your XBOX? How could it not be perfect for a corporate environment?
        Socratesfoot
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson
      Your argument has convinced me. I'm going out right now to get a WP7 since they are headed for such great success!
      deathjazz
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson Oh, you know both the WP7 users?
      timspublic1@...
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson

      IDC report has fail assumptions. Are they really thinking that all Symbian users walk nice and easily to direction guided by Nokia and MS-advocates? No way, my friend. However i don't think RIM is getting much friends amoung Symbian users. More likely 30% will get IPhone and majority Android. At least during 2012-13.

      Most of people are thinking that Windows Mobile means viruses to their smartphones. The reputation of MS products is pretty awfull nowadays amoung ordinary people.
      Matsi66
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson
      As a Microsoft fan that got a WP7 phone the week they came out, I totally disagree with the statement "All WP7 are happy with their phones". Personally I tolerate my WP7 phone because I am in a contract and it isn't bad enough to pay the fee for bailing on my contract. I have likewise warned my friends that both iPhone and Android are better alternatives in every function except Word and Excel docs. Even the Exchange client isn't that great.
      bigdaddyellison
    • RE: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

      @Loverock Davidson

      Count me among those happy users, we have 3 in the family and love them. Best phone I've ever used.
      Skippy99