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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Gartner: 2010 will be the year e-book readers take off

By | November 10, 2009, 7:28am PST

Summary: While 2009 marked the first growth spurts of the e-book reader segment, 2010 will be the year the niche segment takes off, according to a new report by research firm Gartner.

While 2009 marked the first growth spurts of the e-book reader segment, 2010 will be the year the niche segment takes off, according to a new report by research firm Gartner.

In fact, Gartner says the consumer electronic devices will culminate in “e-reader mania” for the 2010 holiday season.

The reason? The burgeoning market is finally showing signs of maturity, moving from its infancy to adolescence, marked by the entrance of leading book retailer Barnes and Noble and second and third versions of hardware from Amazon and Sony.

For consumers, that means heightened awareness and more choice — in device manufacturers, in bookstores and in file format, Gartner said.

Though some of the e-readers connect to the Web wirelessly and can sync content across devices, interoperability remains a challenge.

That hurdle is partially mitigated by new development on mobile e-book reader clients for popular smartphones — Kindle and B&N for the iPhone comes to mind — but Gartner says it’s “too early in the evolution of the e-reading market” to see if consumers will be drawn to dedicated e-book readers or clients on devices they already own, such as laptops and smartphones.

“Book applications for smartphones have the potential to become a bridge to other devices such as tablet readers and netbooks,” said Allen Weiner, research vice president at Gartner. “Apple, for example, could migrate the more than 500 book applications in the iTunes store to a tablet device and Google, which recently announced a browser-based e-reader, could offer applications for Android-based devices of various form factors.”

In other words, there’s a lot to work out in the content pipeline — from book publisher to retailer to content delivery and the hardware on which it’s read. And most major publishing houses are still loathe to dip any more than a toe in the market, since bound books still make up the lion’s share of their sales and electronic books can, at times, sell at a loss, despite far less overhead on production.

As expected, Gartner said price is important. For now, $199 is the lowest price for a full-featured e-book reader. Gartner analysts said that “prices will need to drop closer to $99 to gain significant consumer traction.” (Here, here.)

The question is whether manufacturers can lower device prices enough for them to really take off as delivery vehicles for monetized content. After all, it’s the books that keep on giving — you only purchase an e-book reader once every few years.

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Andrew J. Nusca is associate editor of ZDNet and editor of SmartPlanet.

Disclosure

Andrew Nusca

Andrew J. Nusca does not hold any investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Andrew Nusca

Editor

Andrew J. Nusca is an associate editor at ZDNet and editor of SmartPlanet. As a journalist based in New York City, he has written for Popular Mechanics and Men's Vogue and his byline has appeared in New York magazine, The Huffington Post, New York Daily News, Editor & Publisher, New York Press and many others. He also writes The Editorialiste, a media criticism blog.

He is a New York University graduate and former news editor and columnist of the Washington Square News. He is a graduate of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He has been named "Howard Kurtz, Jr." by film critic John Lichman despite having no relation to him. He lives in his native Philadelphia with his wife, cat and Boston Terrier.

Follow him on Twitter.

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good idea about android
gavin.chan 1st Oct
A good post. Thanks for sharing.Hi, do you own a tablet pc? We supply kinds of tablet computers, including wholesale android tablet and windows 7 tablet pc. Buy a 8 inch android tablet from China at wholesale price.VaTVM
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D?j? vu all over again.
Economister Updated - 10th Nov 2009
It will be interesting to watch. Seems to me the publishers are facing the exact same issues that RIAA was/is facing. Lock-in and DRM seem to be the preferred solutions still.

Edit: This site clearly does not like French. Deja - is that better?
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$99 . . .
JLHenry Updated - 10th Nov 2009
Interesting. Gartner just now figures out what the rest of us have been saying for the last 2-3 years . . . .

It has to be an easy to use, cheap device, or the public won't buy them. DRM isn't an issue, except in portability. If they can agree on a file format, DRM won't be a problem. Most consumers simply don't care.

Evidence? The iPod. Apple was making money with DRM tracks for years before they started selling DRM-free ones (which they charge more for wink ).
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The year of ...
Yagotta B. Kidding 10th Nov 2009
Unix? E-books? The New Orleans Saints?
In the flood of eBook reader hardware promotion, most consumers still do not realize that eBooks can typically be read on a device they already own. Our BooksOnBoard.com customers read on a Windows PC (laptop, netbook or even desktop) or Mac 66% of the time, according to our surveys. (Most BooksOnBoard customers read in bed as the #1 location, making a backlight - not available on any of the eBook reading devices - very important.) And more of our BooksOnBoard readers read on the iPhone than on dedicated readers. While we're fans of dedicated readers, selling many of them at BooksOnBoard, we also know that the lion's share of our customers view a $300+ investment in a device (after adding the critical cover to protect the fragile e-ink glass, sales tax, etc.) as the equivalent of a luxury car payment. The ePUB format standard allows customers to read on a laptop today and, when ready, read the same eBook on a smartphone or dedicated device a year from now - without having to pay twice for the eBook. The Cybook Opus (fits in a small purse), Astak E-Z readers, Sony eBook Readers, PCs, Macs, and Netbooks - all use the industry standard ePUB format. Amazon remains the only major holdout, keeping people locked into their proprietary Kindle format and locked into their store. Barnes & Noble currently is doing the same thing with their eReader format (the outdated Palm format), but has announced they will shift to the iundustry standard in Q1. Consumers should also be alert to the fact that the technology is changing very rapidly with much better solutions coming over the course of the next year, including backlights, improved form factors, and greater compatibility among devices. If spending a luxury car payment to read a $5 book does not seem prudent on your budget, or you are concerned that technology will make your device purchase obsolete in months, an gift certificate for eBooks might be a much less expensive and longer lasting gift this Christmas. Also, customers are telling us that if they intend to spend $250, they would often rather buy a NetBook PC that fits in a large purse or small briefcase offering backlight and full PC functionality - plus it takes less than two minutes to download and install the free Adobe Digital Editions software for reading industry standard ePUB ebooks.
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A new distribution model is needed
FrankHa Updated - 11th Nov 2009
I like books, I like them on my shelf and I like to pull them down once in a while and flip thru them. But if I could read them on an e-reader I would probably read more of them, they are just more mobile and easyer to read that way.

I would like to see a model where I could buy the book and get the e-book version for a nominal price, that would push me over to buying a e-reader.
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good idea about android
gavin.chan 1st Oct
A good post. Thanks for sharing.Hi, do you own a tablet pc? We supply kinds of tablet computers, including wholesale android tablet and windows 7 tablet pc. Buy a 8 inch android tablet from China at wholesale price.VaTVM

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