Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

Summary: Gartner---and IDC---are basing a 2012 to 2015 Windows Phone 7 market share surge on faith in Nokia. I don't see how you can have that much faith given what we've seen from Nokia so far.

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Gartner, like its rival IDC, is projecting that Nokia will make Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 the second largest smartphone platform by 2015. Both firms are expecting a big Windows Phone 7 surge in 2013 and beyond.

Gartner predicts that Android will rule the smartphone roost for the foreseeable future. But that's not news really considering that Android domination reports are a dime a dozen.

What's notable in Gartner's report is that it is very similar to IDC's take that Nokia's market heft alone will make Windows Phone 7 a dominant player with 19.5 percent market share in 2015. Gartner has Windows Phone 7 at 10.8 percent market share in 2012. Windows Phone 7 will nibble away at Apple and Research in Motion market share. Also see: Four reasons why IDC's 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

Here's the scorecard:

Gartner writes:

Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieve in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.

As I noted I don't quite buy the Symbian for Windows Phone 7 swap. I also don't think that Nokia will be as dominant in circa 2015 devices as it is today. I agree that Nokia will propel Windows Phone 7, but a 2015 market share of 13 percent to 15 percent is more reasonable. There are way too many unknowns to get Windows Phone 7 to 20 percent based on Nokia alone. Gartner---and IDC---are basing a 2012 to 2015 market share surge on faith in Nokia. I don't see how you can have that much faith given what we've seen from Nokia so far.

Topics: Software, CXO, IT Priorities, Microsoft, Mobility, Nokia, Operating Systems, Windows

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41 comments
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  • Message has been deleted.

    It's a paid for report by Microsoft to keep developers spirits up.
    This prognostication came after the reported slide of the platform since launch.<br><br>PS. This report is screaming, developers hang on don't go.
    Return_of_the_jedi
    • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

      @Return_of_the_jedi <br><br>Use a WP7 phone and suddenly it all makes sense. It also makes sense to all those users of feature and semismart phones, who happen to be using Nokia - even more so in the world outside the reality distortion field of the USA.<br><br>Do you really think those people want to use the find the static icon on the crowded desktop UI so beloved of Apple and Android? Sure geeks love it, the rest of us just want to use our phones.<br><br>Given Apple's history, I expect to see dynamic tiles soon <img border="0" src="http://www.cnet.com/i/mb/emoticons/wink.gif" alt="wink">
      tonymcs@...
  • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

    Dont forget Ovum, which predicts 22% market share for Windows Phone 7 in 2016.
    http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?title=Android%20driving%20record%20smartphone%20growth&id=28553
    ALISON SMOCK
  • I agree!

    M$ is spreading FUD!
    Linux Geek
  • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

    Do you all think it might have to do with the fact that MS has coupled, not only with Nokia, but with HTC, Samsung, Dell, LG, and other manufacturers as well? Perhaps the software selling model to a bunch of OEMs may turn out to work well, I mean, where have we seen this before?

    And frankly, more choice is better for everyone.
    hoaxoner
    • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

      @hoaxoner
      Only one problem with you little fantasy, Nokia will become a Subsidiary of Microsoft before 2013. This move will cut off the rest of the OEMs. These OEms will back Android with a vengeance, and watch for lawsuits out the wazoo against Microsoft, for breaking contracts.
      Rick_K
      • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

        @Rick_K When will the Microsoft conspiracy theories end?!? (And I say this as a Linux user) Why the bleep would Microsoft want to buy Nokia??? Toshiba made the first Zunes but Microsoft saw no need to buy them....
        jgm@...
      • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

        @jgm@<br>It is not a conspiracy theory, there is an old saying: If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is most likely a duck. Another question is did Microsoft invest $1 billion in Toshiba? Or did they simply buy up a bunch of Gigabeats and rebrand them?
        Rick_K
  • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

    Why is this so hard to believe? Microsoft changed the mobile landscape with their new UI for Windows Phone 7. Everyone who has used it has nothing but nice things to say. WP7 are the happiest of the mobile users, just ask any one of them what they think of it and they will gladly tell you. Nokia has loyalty. Their customers with the current Nokia Symbian handsets are going to stick with them through the WP7 transition. There has to be some truth to it if you have 2 seperate research firms saying the same thing. I have no doubts that WP7 is going to be a strong contender.
    Loverock Davidson
    • Message has been deleted.

      @Loverock Davidson <br><br><i>"Why is this so hard to believe?"</i><br><br>Because YOU don't own one. You only own a wp7 red, green, orange, and blue color pom pom. Are you planning on beating the 2015 deadline? If you wait that long, they will cost a fraction of a penny.
      Return_of_the_jedi
      • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

        @Return_of_the_jedi
        DO not bother responding to Lovestherock, as he/she/ it is completely delusional. Maybe it is because Lovestherock has been drinking the Monkeyboi Flavor-aid too long. Thus causing irreversible brain damage.
        Rick_K
  • In the realm of the possible

    Sure, Apple could be out of business by then as could MS. Google may have been passed by some upstart also. The world as we know it could come to and end.

    History and track records do matter however. So far, given the recent (multiyear) history of both MS and Nokia, I think these crystal ball gazers have a screw or two loose. But then again, they are trying to sell forecasts to the cover CYA crowd. I guess both MS and Nokia will spring for a copy for every employee.
    Economister
    • Our budget for your research has been cut

      @Economister That's a big part of it. Both IDC and Gartner sell vast quantities of market research, on a variety of topics, to Microsoft. You are not going to see either of them coming out with a report that says, "Microsoft is hosed."

      Since the future hasn't happened yet, I don't know whether these predictions are worth anything or not. I think they greatly depend on how quickly Android eats Symbian's lunch. A lot of the optimism for the Nokia-Microsoft efforts is based on Nokia's customers still being customers when Nokia actually releases some Windows phones. Personally I think more of them might escape than they hope.
      Robert Hahn
      • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

        @Robert Hahn <br>"Personally I think more of them might escape than they hope. " Right, I should think all of the "touchscreen" crowd have or in the process of moving on now. The keyboard lot (E-Series users, me included) will grip the E-Series handsets until we or they die and then cast around to see if RIM are still in business and still selling kit with a keyboard. I want a phone not a "media consuming device".
        MrBeck
        • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

          @MrBeck <br>Why spam. It is a reply to the time series Robert Hahn gave in his post. Has your spam filter gone bananas? <br><br>Good I see the idiot spam filter has recovered from it's night out.
          MrBeck
    • Message has been deleted.

      Will Farrell
  • Message has been deleted.

    Will Farrell
    • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

      @Will Farrell Hear hear!! 2015 is a long way off and its great there will be a competitive environment with multiple players. I am waiting for WP7 on Verizon!
      jatbains
    • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

      @Will Farrell as jetbains said- Hear Hear!!
      I wonder just how much apple does pay him? ell, I'm sure his services come cheap... And crystalsoldier- you make some great points and I agree 100%! Of course, I fully expect my post to be deleted- often the truth strikes too close to home for some people to tolerate.
      xplorer1959
  • RE: Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

    I would be surprised if the author of this article has as much of market intelligence, depth of analysis and information reach as research outfits like Gartner etc.

    The author needs to remind himself that "Kool-Aid" comes in many flavours and colours. It would be helpful to know which variety the author is imbibing!
    crystalsoldier