Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

Summary: Gartner doesn't see Microsoft as a tablet player at all through 2015. To grasp, this prediction you have to assume that the software giant won't figure out tablets---period.

SHARE:

Gartner projects that Apple's iOS will hold 47 percent of the tablet operating system market in 2015 with Android at 38.6 percent. RIM's QNX will have a respectable 10 percent of the tablet market in 2015. The big assumption for Gartner over the next 4 years: Microsoft will have no tablet answer.

As noted previously, projections for market conditions in 2015 are a largely academic exercise, but Gartner's crystal ball has a few interesting twists:

  • Gartner doesn't see Microsoft as a tablet player at all through 2015. To grasp, this prediction you have to assume that the software giant won't figure out tablets---period. No Windows 8 tablets. No Windows Phone tablets. Microsoft won't have a clue for 4 years even if Nokia somehow makes a table---a reasonable assumption. I don't have a ton of confidence about Microsoft's tablet strategy, but to think the company won't have any tablet offering sounds nutty to me.
  • Apple will dominate the tablet market to 2012 with almost 64 percent market share. Then market share plunges to 47 percent in 2015.
  • On the opposite end of the spectrum, Android market share ramps from 24.4 percent in 2012 to 38.6 percent in 2015. You can interpret that to mean it will take four years for Android to get its act together on tablets.
  • RIM will take some time to get developer interest, but it will get there argues Gartner.

The monkey wrench in all of these forecasts is Microsoft. Do we really expect that the HP's WebOS will have more market share---3 percent in 2015---than whatever the software giant cooks up?

Related:

Gartner drinks the 2015 Microsoft-Nokia Kool-Aid too

Four reasons why IDC’s 2015 Nokia-Microsoft predictions are bunk

Topics: Hardware, CXO, IT Priorities, Laptops, Microsoft, Mobility, Tablets

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Talkback

39 comments
Log in or register to join the discussion
  • RE: Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

    Wow, does Gartner know what's in Windows 8? You actually have to pay Gartner for the full report.
    joeyw72
    • It all depends if Balmer (or someone like him) is still there in 2015.

      Yes, Gartner has heard of Windows 8, but, it could be more of the same, and, the last major rewrite (Vista) took 8 years to complete, so, Windows 8 will probably not even be out by 2015.

      Will Microsoft FINALLY get rid of Balmer????
      DonnieBoy
      • RE: Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

        @DonnieBoy
        Windows 8 will ship in 2012
        http://windows8news.com/2009/11/20/windows-8-confirmed-for-2012-launch/
        g@...
      • Well, Vista was confirmed to launch a year later - FOR ABOUT 6 YEARS.

        But, if they do manage to ship something called Windows 8 next year, that will not be enough time to do all of the things necessary to make it competitive on tablets. If you have a new OS that results in a product that is, compared to the entrenched competition, even marginally thicker, heaver, less battery life, more expensive, it is a non-starter.
        DonnieBoy
      • RE: Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

        @DonnieBoy

        Where do you get 8 years? XP was 10/2001 and Vista was 11/2006, I.E. five years. And that did not count Server 2003 and 64 bit support that came out in the middle.

        I no you are extremely biased to Linux, but at least get the known facts somehwhere near correct.
        oldsysprog
      • oldsysprog: The exact dates matter very little, it was an ETERNITY

        no matter how you look at it. Also, if you note that XP was really just a gussied up Windows 2000, and the Vista was virtually unusable due to driver problems and application compatibility, it was not until Windows 7 that there was a real viable upgrade to Windows 2000. And, that was over 8 years.
        DonnieBoy
      • RE: Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

        @DonnieBoy [i]The exact dates matter very little[/i]

        Well, I suppose if you're going to throw out numbers willy nilly... then you're right, the exact dates wouldn't matter.

        I don't doubt Windows 8 will make some sort of showing in 2012, but I am very skeptical of their tablet direction. We'll just have to wait and see.
        Badgered
      • I don't know. At least Google got rid of Schmidt, but

        @DonnieBoy
        four years for Google to get their act together in refernce to Android? I think the report is being VERY generous!
        Will Farrell
      • oldsysprog, dates don't count

        @DonnieBoy
        when Donnieboy gets called out on them. He exagerates ALL the time in hopes that nobody catches it!!
        Will Farrell
      • Guys, it was over 5 years for Vista to ship, but, remember, XP is just a

        gussied up Windows 2000, and Vista was really not a usable update due to driver, application compatibility problems, and bloat. So, the time between Windows 2000 and Windows 7 WAS over 8 years that it took for a useful / significant update. In ANY case, over 5 years is an eternity for an OS upgrade. And, this time around, Microsoft is also adding support for a new processor architecture on top of a major upgrade that will somehow also magically make it scale down to cell phones.
        DonnieBoy
    • Also, even if MS does release Windows 8 by 2015, will Win32 matter at all

      anymore, especially for tablets. Most tablet applications will, by that time, be written for iOS (objective-C), or Android (Java/Davik), OR HTML5. So, Windows 8 could be largely irrelevant by the time it comes out, as there will be no Win32 apps optimized for tablets / touch.
      DonnieBoy
      • RE: Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

        @DonnieBoy <br>Ever heard of Silverlight ? I can guarantee that there are *atleast* 11,000 touch optimized apps right now.<br><br>Also what makes you think HTML5 apps won't work on Windows 8. <br>
        Seriously man if you hate Microsoft so much say it out loud without beating about the bush.
        g@...
      • Well, YES, HTML5 apps will work just fine on Windows 8, but, that does not

        create any special reason to use Windows 8. Yes, Microsoft paid a lot of cash to developers to get them to port iPhone and Adroid applications to WP7 phones, but, those will also be optimized for phones which have very small screens compared to a tablet, and will be completely overshadowed by all of the Android and iPad applications available - OPTIMIZED FOR TABLETS. Silverlight is in general a failure.<br><br>So, even if Microsoft delivers something called Windows 8 by 2012, the competition will be entrenched, and Windows 8 tablet will be at least marginally more expensive, thicker, heavier, less battery life. A non-starter for a newcomer against entrenched competition.
        DonnieBoy
      • Not what they're doing

        @g@<ul><i>Silverlight, HTML5</i></ul>But if that's the strategy, why would Microsoft tell people to wait for Windows 8? They could do a Silverlight/HTML5 tablet tomorrow with WP7. But they don't do that. They are rushing a new version of Windows to market precisely to take advantage of the Win32 app ecosystem.

        The wait they are imposing on their enterprise customers is a huge risk for them. If they really thought that Silverlight and HTML5 apps would keep people in the fold, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
        Robert Hahn
      • Robert Hahn: EXACTY, someone who gets it!!! Microsoft could release a

        tablet OS based on WP7 next month that would deliver Silverlight and HTML5, but, they somehow think that they need "full Windows" to be competitive. The only plus that "full Windows" brings is Win32, but, there are virtually NO tablet / touch optimized Win32 applications, nor are there likely to ever be any. Win32 was introduced with Win 3.1 for the love of god.
        DonnieBoy
      • But will it run on an ARM?

        @DonnieBoy <ul><i>Win32 was introduced with Win 3.1 for the love of god.</i></ul>Tell me about it. I have an app on this machine -- a quad-core Phenom running Win 7 SP1 -- that I wrote in Borland C++ (and its class library, OWL) on a 486/33.<br><br>I still use that app every day, so kudos to Microsoft for maintaining backward compatibility above and beyond the call of duty. But it is just that sort of backward compatibility that causes bloat and tired joints.
        Robert Hahn
      • Robert Hahn: As I recall, OWL was an extra library that ran on top of Win32

        so, I would find it very unlikely that whoever currently owns the Borland IPR would ever port it to Arm :-(

        But, the best way to deliver old Win32 applications on Arm might be using WineLib, assuming you had the original source code. I keep saying that Google should buy Code Weavers. It might be the best and safest way to get old Win32 applications running on a tablet. Imagine combining WineLib with native client.
        DonnieBoy
      • Right on the money...

        @Robert Hahn: maybe the real footnote from Gartner's report would be that Microsoft is working under an incorrect assumption, not that they won't deliver a REAL competitor in the near future.

        Maybe that assumption is going to bite them in the... well you know... and that instead of gaining market share, the opposite will apply. That would explain that 2 "gap years" are not shown: 2013 and 2014, as they will be irrelevant for the final outcome.

        With that said, @Larry, MS could be delivering a tablet OS on holiday 2012 and still gain 0.5 market share, but that would corrode to just 0.2 in just three years, even if initially it would be at 10 or 15% on 2013.

        <i>Let's call that the Star Wars I, Phantom Menace effect. Windows Tablet 8, thus will be akin to Jar Jar Binks. LOL</i>
        cosuna
    • Ironically, yes...

      @joeyw72 : if you haven't followed Gartner for the past 15+ years, you would have known that they are briefed--in advance--on all new Microsoft initiatives, with full Q&A access, as this reports are used by companies to up the ante in their stock values.

      Up until the mobile thingy, they had been bullish about Microsoft and it's operating systems.

      Two examples:
      On 2007, they warned companies that they shouldn't skip <a href="http://news.cnet.com/Gartner-Large-businesses-shouldnt-skip-Vista/2100-1016_3-6221925.html">Vista</a>.

      On 2005, even before Vista was definitely announce they told businesses to start migrating to Vista before <a href="http://news.cnet.com/Gartner-paints-a-clearer-Vista-picture/2100-1016_3-5969469.html?tag=mncol">2008</a>.

      So yes, they know what's on Windows 8. And if they are painting this doom-and-gloom picture, is because they don't like what they see.
      cosuna
  • RE: Gartner: Microsoft will still be a tablet no-show in 2015

    Ballmer can't figure anything out other than how to smash an iPhone.
    The one and only, Cylon Centurion