Mac shipments expected to soar

Mac shipments expected to soar

Summary: Wall Street analysts are making the rounds with Apple's management and gushing in research notes. Here's what's interesting about this love-in: While analysts can't shut up about the iPhone or Apple TV they also have big expectations for that old stalwart--the Mac.

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TOPICS: Apple, Hardware
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Wall Street analysts are making the rounds with Apple's management and gushing in research notes. Here's what's interesting about this love-in: While analysts can't shut up about the iPhone or Apple TV they also have big expectations for that old stalwart--the Mac.

A research note by UBS analyst Ben Reitzes tells the tale.

Reitzes reckons that Adobe Creative Suite 3 and the Leopard launch will drive Mac purchases. He also speculates that Apple is working on "some kind of ultra portable PC." Meanwhile, Apple is being aggressive with its television ads that look to woo Windows converts.

One interesting Mac nugget. Apple is ramping up its distribution. Reitzes said Macs will be available in 8,000 purchase points, up from 5,800. That statistic includes 200 Best Buys by year end, up from 58 today. If this expansion is successful Mac market share could increase.

But none of these items hit you over the head until you see the estimates Reitzes lays out. In fiscal 2007, UBS is projecting Apple to ship 6,720,000 total Macintosh units, up from 5,302 in 2006. In 2008, Apple is projected to ship 8,437,000 units. That's a huge difference from the 3,290,000 Macs shipped in 2004.

Among other odds and ends as Apple execs make the post earnings rounds:

Apple TV as the next DVD player: Reitzes noted:

"We believe that the Apple TV could eventually become a challenger in the 420 million unit DVD player market as more content becomes available on iTunes—which seems inevitable. Also, iTunes can start to become a bigger player in the 1.6 billion unit DVD market (at least a $20B market size). As a result, we believe that Apple TV could be a $1 billion ecosystem for Apple within a few years."

iPhone shipments: Reitzes is projecting 850,000 iPhone units to ship in fiscal 2007 and 7.4 million in fiscal 2008. We've covered Reitzes' multi-touch ecosystem concept before

Topics: Apple, Hardware

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21 comments
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  • Way cool....:P

    One question "IF" Apple is gaining market share who is loosing?

    Pagan jim
    Laff
    • Don't get the cart before the horse.

      This is just a prediction by financial analysts. It would have to come true before anyone would loose any share.
      ShadeTree
      • Tru Dat about the "prediction" part....

        but what about the recent articles stating Apple has already gain Market Share so
        going saying as high as 5 to perhaps even more? I know I know it's confusing like
        Market Share in the US vs world wide and such but still if Apple is to gain someone or
        someone's have to loose right? I'm even curious as to the results ie Hardware vs OS
        or software. So a company such as Dell or HP might loose hardware Market Share
        and pehraps in the mix MS might loose some or maybe Linux? I don't know...but one
        would think that to gain someone has to loose right?

        Pagan jim
        Laff
        • Who said anyone is "losing"?

          it sounds like many assume that the market isn't growing, that the percentage of the narket is just shifting.

          But if the market itself is growing, and both MS and Apple add new customers to their camps, whether 1 company gets more doesn't change the fact that BOTH are making lots of money, thereby, both "winning", as in the end isn't it all about profit?
          John Zern
          • I agree!!!

            As long as both are making money hands over fist Market Share is hardly an issue.
            Also there are still a great many people out in the Glabal Market that don't have or
            use computers. However is not the term Market "SHARE" a determinate about a
            given "SHARE" of a given market? Meaning both could and are making money and
            doing quite well at that. Both could be expanding into new markets and such but
            I think the term Market Share has always been a bit vauge to me and others
            because it seems to mean something but exactly what I don't know. I've always
            thought because Apple was making good money that she was doing well but
            others kept brining up Market Share and pointing to Apple's failure via said
            numbers. Say the market is expanding as more and more people's/countries
            automate and such but Apple grows faster than say MS and or Dell for some
            reason both or all three are making money but still the Market Share numbers
            while still in MS over all favor show improvement for Apple....does that means I
            can't turn around and use those same numbers against the very people who use
            to have such glee using them against me? Darn!!!!

            Pagan jim
            Laff
          • Hmmm....

            A sensible, well supported flow of posts. What happened to zdnet? :P
            zkiwi
          • Acrually you can.

            Since market share is a percentage of the total it is market growth agnostic. You are correct when you say that in order for Apple to gain share someone has to lose share. The most recent numbers show that Apple has gained share. As of April the numbers are;

            Windows all - 91.41%
            Mac OS all - 6.21%
            Linux all - 0.80%
            All Others - 1.58%

            These numbers are based on webhits on 40,000 servers and therefore represent the population versus sales. Sales numbers present a some what distorted view owing to the fact Linux can be loaded after the fact for free. Although this number is only for online computers, the number of online versus stand alone should not be influenced by choice of platform.
            ShadeTree
          • The more interesting figure is that after ....

            .... only 1 quarter of sales Vista already has half the market share of all Macs in use in the world. I guess rumors of slow Vista adoption are greatly exaggerated!
            ShadeTree
      • True, but...

        ...Apple sales have been going up for several years now. I would have to look it up, but they were up like 35% or something year over year for quarter 1? So its easy to imagine that this would continue.
        Stuka
        • The number of sales being up 35 % ....

          ... does not necessarily speak to market share growth. If the total market is up significantly then they still could be losing market share. In any case the actual numbers are in my post above.

          P.S. Maintaining a growth rate of 35% is impossible as youre sales grow your chance to grow it shrinks.
          ShadeTree
          • Unless you are starting for a relatively low number

            After all "IF" there is a lot of room above you a 35% growth depending on certain
            other factors might not be a limiting factor if there is still plenty of room to gow into?

            Pagan jim
            Laff
          • Doesn't change the fact that ....

            ... as the denominator gets larger it is harder to maintain the same growth rate.
            ShadeTree
          • That is true it does get harder but not impossible

            "IF" there space over their head is large enough at least for a few years that is.

            Pagan jim
            Laff
    • Answer

      Many folks are not "switching" but adding - that means that no one is losing market share, just that the market became a lot more heterogenous.
      Confused by religion
    • First have to define the market

      for the term "marketshare" to have any meaning. Luckily, the DoJ has already defined that market for us by specifically stating that OSX and Windows are not in the same market. Once we take Windows out of the market (since Windows is a monopoly in a market that only includes Windows and no other OS), I would say that OSX and Linux are fighting over marketshare. So, for OSX to be gaining marketshare, Linux must be losing it.

      Unless Windows isn't a monopoly? Hmm.
      NonZealot
      • The end

        you are witnessing the end of a mopoly. How does a computer company with 5%
        marketshare make half as much profit as Dell & HP combined (4th quarter lat year)?
        Throw in Gateway (which actually lost money) & Apple looks even better finacially
        (walletshare).
        SquishyParts
        • Dell & HP have a monopoly?

          [i]How does a computer company with 5% marketshare make half as much profit as Dell & HP combined[/i]

          I must have missed the ruling where Dell & HP were labeled monopolies. Oh, you meant MS? Hmm, not sure you really want to compare profit between MS and Apple. :)

          And as far as comparing Apple's profits to Dell & HP, you forget that 90% of Apple's profits come from their monopoly item: the iPod.
          NonZealot
          • Are you sure about that 90% number?

            Pagan jim
            Laff
      • A couple tings...

        First of all I don't think being a monopoly depends on ZERO competition. You can
        abe a monopoly and have some minimal competition I think but the key phrase here
        is minimal (Not enough to effect the monopoly)

        Was it OSX or OS9 back in that time period?

        Pagan jim
        Laff
  • Huh???

    "UBS is projecting Apple to ship 6,720,000 total Macintosh units, up from 5,302 in 2006."

    I think a few extra digits were left out of the "5.302" quote.
    Confused by religion