Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Microsoft: Yahoo 'unrealistic'; Deadline stands; Quarter mixed

By | April 24, 2008, 3:20pm PDT

Summary: Update: Microsoft CFO Christopher Liddell said Thursday that Yahoo had “unrealistic expectations” about the price it could fetch and reiterated the software giant could walk away from the deal. Liddell’s comments came on Microsoft’s third quarter earnings conference call (for live coverage see News.com and Silicon Alley Insider). In a nutshell, Liddell said: Microsoft’s Saturday deadline to [...]

Update: Microsoft CFO Christopher Liddell said Thursday that Yahoo had “unrealistic expectations” about the price it could fetch and reiterated the software giant could walk away from the deal.

Liddell’s comments came on Microsoft’s third quarter earnings conference call (for live coverage see News.com and Silicon Alley Insider). In a nutshell, Liddell said:

  • Microsoft’s Saturday deadline to bring Yahoo to the negotiating table stands. If Yahoo doesn’t play ball, Liddell said Microsoft will “reconsider our options.” He added that one of those options is walking away.
  • Liddell said that Microsoft would forge ahead with its online advertising ambitions with or without Yahoo.
  • And the CFO reiterated that Microsoft’s offer of $31 a share is “extremely generous” and that the company will remain disciplined about its offer. Liddell said that Microsoft’s bid was at $31 a share was designed to close a deal quickly. In fact, Liddell noted that the argument that Microsoft should raise its bid because it can “is not one I favor.”

Liddell’s comments come amid a mixed quarter for Microsoft. The software giant’s fiscal third quarter earnings topped Wall Street estimates, but the outlook for the June quarter was mixed. Client revenue was below expectations in the quarter but Liddell did note that the mix of sales was shifting in favor of Vista over XP. Liddell, who noted that the software spending was mixed, was pressed about the company’s outlook repeatedly in the question and answer session.

Here’s the earnings rundown (Techmeme, statement, company presentation, preview): Microsoft’s reported operating income of $4.41 billion, or 47 cents a share, on revenue of $14.45 billion. According to Thomson Financial, Microsoft was expected to report fiscal third quarter earnings of 44 cents a share with sales of $14.5 billion. However, those earnings figures include a charge of $1.42 billion, or 15 cents a share, to cover an EU fine. But that charge was offset by an income tax reduction.

Add it up and Microsoft’s earnings were better than expected, but sales were a bit light.

msft3q2.png

The outlook was also mixed. Microsoft projected fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $15.5 billion to $15.8 billion with earnings between 45 cents a share and 48 cents a share. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 48 cents a share with sales of $15.5 billion.

Microsoft also unveiled fiscal 2009 guidance. The company projected revenue of $66.9 billion to $68 billion with earnings of $2.13 a share to $2.19 a share. Wall Street is expecting fiscal 2009 earnings of $2.10 a share on revenue of $66.5 billion.

Also see: Does Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer need an intervention?

The theme in Microsoft’s guidance: Earnings lower and sales higher. On the conference call with analysts, Liddell said Microsoft remains confident about IT demand and its business model. Nevertheless, these results raise a few questions: Was Microsoft distracted with the Yahoo bid? Is the perception of Vista hurting demand? Will Microsoft’s online unit turn a profit anytime soon?

msft3q1.png

Here’s a look at Microsoft’s results by division:

msft3q.png

By the numbers:

  • Client revenue (Vista, XP) was $4.02 billion, down from $5.27 billion a year ago. Deutsche Bank analyst Todd Raker was projecting revenue of $4.3 billion. Operating income was $3.1 billion, down from $4.2 billion. The client unit had a tough comparison given the bump Microsoft got from the Vista launch a year ago. Microsoft’s third quarter a year ago included $1.64 billion of revenue deferred from December due to the company’s technology guarantee program leading up to the Vista launch. Microsoft said 140 million Vista licenses have been sold to date.
  • Server and Tools revenue was $3.25 billion, up from $2.75 billion a year ago. Operating income was $1.1 billion, up from $911 million a year ago. Raker’s estimate was $3.2 billion.
  • Online services business (MSN) revenue was $843 million, up from $603 million. But the division lost more money than a year ago. The online unit reported an operating loss of $228 million, up from $171 million a year ago. Raker’s revenue estimate for the unit was $903 million.
  • Microsoft’s business division (Office) had revenue of $4.75 billion, down from $4.83 billion. Operating income was $3.1 billion, down from $3.4 billion a year ago.
  • The entertainment and device division (Xbox) posted a small operating profit of $89 million on revenue of $1.57 billion. Microsoft’s Xbox sold well enabling the division to top its revenue target. Cumulative console sales topped 19 million during the quarter, up 74 percent from a year ago.
  • Research and development spending was $2 billion in the fiscal third quarter, up from $1.75 billion.
  • Microsoft had total cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $26.3 billion.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

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Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Microsoft's quarter, outlook mixed; Client revenue misses; Xbox shines
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
Interesting sharp posting. In no way previously considered that it had been this painless. Extolment to you pe nfl football shop rsonally!
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For reference:
Anton Philidor 24th Apr 2008
This quarter was the one year anniversary of all those Vista coupons being cashed and the profits recorded. That's a reason the numbers were lower this year.

Vista SP 1 was not released in time to produce a level of new sales similar to that following the release of the new operating system that fulfilled so many hopes.
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Staff
Indeed,
Larry Dignan 24th Apr 2008
Adding that now
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Another anniversary
Anton Philidor 25th Apr 2008
Office also launched in the period a year ago. Sales can be expected to have declined after a year.
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MS employees posting here to defend MS
Web Smart 27th Apr 2008
If you trackback their IPs those who try to show MS is the GOD and Vista is blessing in disguise, you will find they are posting from MS offices
Whatever you're smoking please pass it on....
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Yes, Vista is a spectacular success.
Anton Philidor 25th Apr 2008
Mr. Ballmer observed that Vista had to that time trailed only XP in sales. And that's before an SP 1 launch that was unusually significant because of the initial trouble with drivers.

The driver and other software incompatibility issues show the role of Windows. I read about a number of software products that older versions were not updated to Vista. People had to purchase newer versions instead.

Vista was considered so strong that other software companies thought people and organizations would buy new versions just to use the new operating system.

The OEMs also know how valuable Vista is to sales. Remember how the delay in Vista issuance wrecked Christmas sales? Then for a time new computer sales improved strongly, beyond expectation, apparently because buyers wanted computers with Vista.

The Windows ecology apparently supports major sectors of the computer industry. Retailing in the US probably gains or loses noticeably dependiong upon the reception of a new Windows version.

So be glad that Vista has been producing profits for Microsoft almost beyond the dreams of avarice. Thousands of jobs probably hung on that success.
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Which is why...
John L. Ries 25th Apr 2008
...half the people I know are running it and trying hard to convince the other half to do so.
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Spectacular success?
Taz_z 25th Apr 2008
Earnings exceed expectations, but sales light is an interesting statement. I guess the number of machines shipped with Vista makes it a spectacular success, even if the ones going to corps are being reimaged with XP. But sales light tells me whatever was sold was overpriced.
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Remember the different versions
Anton Philidor 25th Apr 2008
Microsoft representatives have observed that the most expensive enterprise version, Ultimate, had better sales than expected. That would explain the comment "Earnings exceed expectations, but sales light."

Though I wonder "light" compared to what? Perhaps to a period win which months, including the Christmas period, in which Vista conversion tickets were cashed in.

And why would coprporations buy the most expensive version of Vista in order to reimage it with XP. A cheaper version would save money. Perhaps many/most pc's are not being reimaged, and those that are will be changed back now that SP 1 has come available.
Then they make 8. That is some funny stuff.
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And then they got those new computers and they ran like crap and many killed Vista off and reloaded XP. Some of this was the OEM's problems with their crapware and bloatware, a lot of it was driver issues. Some of it was M$'s fault with their own bloatware. And finally, how many versions of Vista does one need to market!!!! My own company buys its computers, then puts xp on the things because Vista is 'not ready'. And these are not cheap low powered computers. Lets try to keep this real.
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How many is "so many"?
Anton Philidor 25th Apr 2008
And of those, how many will return to Vista when it's more "ready", perhaps after the release of SP 1.

Then, Microsoft produced a number of versions of Vista, as you wrote. Gives organizations the chance to avoid "bloatware" and save money by obtaining capabilities and functionality more closely aligned to needs.

The most expensive version of Vista has ben selling unexpected well. People wanted what produces "bloat", apparently. And are unlikely to pay extra then replace the software with XP, at least not permanently.

Keeping this real must acknowledge that with the (incomplete) available facts, Vista can be considered a success.



Also, many of the initial problems with Vista occurred because the software was improved. For reasons of security and efficient operation, per Mr. Allchin. If he succeeded, improvement produced the problems.

And many third parties did not apparently use their time well before issuance. Some - not all - of these because they saw an opportunity to make new sales of their own to Vista users by not updating prior versions.

Microsoft may have overall responsibility, though some difficulties would be hard for the company to solve on its own. But simple incompetence is hardly a full explanation of what happened.
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Me, for one
drprodny 27th Apr 2008
And everyone I know would rather mainline Drano than buy a PC w/Vista on it - to the point that about half the people I know either bought their first Macs or are seriously considering doing so.

THAT is your "success story", Mr. M$ Shill!
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Don't forget to add
Ole Man 25th Apr 2008
how Vista has turned the economy around and saved millions of "users" from starvation, and saved the world's document format from certain lock-in by open source, even if they did have to destroy the credibility of the standards committee to do it.
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In sales, but that's it
tikigawd 25th Apr 2008
Come on now, be fair...

Vista was considered so strong that other software companies thought people and organizations would buy new versions just to use the new operating system.

Since MS has always said it would essentially discontinue XP eventually, Vista became the new standard. Therefore, companies naturally wrote new versions of their software geared towards Vista. This speaks of Microsoft's current dominance of the market, not to Vista's superiority over XP...


The OEMs also know how valuable Vista is to sales. Remember how the delay in Vista issuance wrecked Christmas sales? Then for a time new computer sales improved strongly, beyond expectation, apparently because buyers wanted computers with Vista.

Yes, anyone who was thinking about getting a Windows computer held up until Vista came out. Again that speaks nothing about Vista's strength, it only speaks of the strong advertisement before it came out.

People wanted computers, and they came with Vista. They didn't necessarily want computers with Vista. Furthermore, do you think that if Vista had been so widely sought out after its launch MS would have extended how long OEMs could sell machines with XP?
Vista is so unmitigatedly ass (like Steve "Darth" Ballmer, actually) that I wiped it off my PC within six months and backgraded to XP just to get a VIABLE OS!
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Give up the KoolAid
marlinj@... 1st May 2008
And try a dose of reality.

MS's Christmas problem was their own creation. They made big, loud promises that they couldn't deliver on.

If it weren't for the head lock MS has on the OEMs, you'd know just how much, or rather how little, the public cares about upgrading to Vista. But it's awfully hard to tell what the public wants when there is no free market.
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Numbers don't tell the story...
Mike Cox 24th Apr 2008
To get the real story, you need to attend executive symposiums like I do. Bottom line, Vista is a raging success and the future is all about SharePoint. The future is not about making users happy. It is about making users understand why they need Vista and forcing into the enterprise. Enough with the testing, enough with the stalling. Deploy, deploy, deploy!!!
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Well I ....
Linux_4u! 24th Apr 2008
Be hanged !!!!!!!!!!!!! Welcome back MC. Have missed you sorely ... Things HAVE NOT BEEN THE SAME ....... PLEASE do not go away ..... You make my day - really ...
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9.2! And Welcome Back! (nt)
Stuka 24th Apr 2008
nt
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About right
John L. Ries 25th Apr 2008
Customer service is an obsolete concept mostly promoted now by quasi-socialist ex-hippies. All real business people understand that the real goal of all businesses is to sell the worst possible product for the highest possible price.

9.8
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8.5
Taz_z 25th Apr 2008
More direct than usual and no input from the rep.
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People, listen up!
Linux Geek 24th Apr 2008
However, those earnings figures include a charge of $1.42 billion, or 15 cents a share, to cover an EU fine.
EU must step up the fines until they exceed $20 a share to send a clear message:...Enough for M$ pillaging the world and sending the US into a recession!
But it appears that charge was offset by an income tax reduction.
The IRS and the Congress should investigate the windfall profits M$ is illegaly making at our own expense and eliminate its tax shelters!
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"eliminate its tax shelters"?
fr0thy2 24th Apr 2008
Ah but have you noticed that tax is used to keep the mega-capitalist model the "success" that it "is" during shrinkage?

Yup, we'll bail out Northern Rock, while you guys bail out Bear Stearns, all without being officially aware.

Time for a new model, but just like MS, the dumbwits aren't prepared to progress, they just want to keep on repeating the same old "this worked last time" stories.

FOSS and Social Enterprise are the only way to go forward.
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Instead, Microsoft brings a lot of money into the US, which helps the country. They are a net exporter of goods, unlike many American companies.

They still have something of a monopoly and their prices are higher than they should be. But when MS makes money, most of that money flows into the US monetary system.

The EU fines mean that money leaves the US and goes to the EU. Less money in the US makes for a weaker economy.

If you want to find someone to blame for the recession, look at the administration and specifically the treasury. They are printing money like mad to cover the losses resulting from the Bush tax cuts (for some reason, the mainstream press rarely covers this topic).
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Something of a monopoly?
otaddy 24th Apr 2008
Either you are a monopoly or you arent. What do you mean by this?

You say their prices are higher than they should be. What is your basis for this? WinXP sold for $99 in 2001 which in today's dollars would be $116. Vista Home Premium is $129 but it does more than XP Home did as it includes Media Center, which wasnt available at XP launch.
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Yes, something of a monopoly
K B 24th Apr 2008
For one, monopoly depends on how you define it. If you're looking to debate whether they're a monopoly or not, just Google it and I'm sure you can find a million threads going back ten years making every point about for and against.

In the end Microsoft was deemed to be a monopoly. That being said, they are not able to wield their monopoly status like they used too and it is gradually disintegrating, but that doesn't mean that it's gone completely yet. Mac and open source software are legitimate alternatives now and they are gradually eating away at MS market share.

To your other point about Microsoft pricing. An economic principle of monopolies is that prices will be higher in a monopolistic market than in a competitive market. If the prices haven't changed significantly since the time that they were deemed a monopoly, then I would say, they're still getting some of the benefits of their monopoly.
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And the govt's definition is wrong--it is based on politics instead of economics. The Mac and later Linux have always been viable alternatives, it's just that people chose Windows instead.

And again, what should windows cost? At what price level is the price competitive instead of monopolistic?
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They are printing money like mad
Ole Man 25th Apr 2008
One should research the subject before fanning the air with their gums, or pounding their keyboard, as it were.

Banking History
THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM IS PRIVATELY OWNED

Our banking history is filled with deception, fraud, larceny and treason. To understand the problem of how modern, deceptive banking policy adversely affects every American citizen and is, indeed, antithetical to our great Republic, we must begin with an examination of the historical evolution of the privately owned central banking system. A cursory exploration of this system reveals that from its very inception it, by design, undermines political will and insures a lifetime of feudal-like, debt-based enslavement.

http://www.fdrs.org/banking_history.html

The Federal Reserve - Its Origins, History & Current Strategy
By: Wayne N. Krautkramer

Few perceive the truth about the Federal Reserve. Rare are those who know its origins. It is right in front of us, but our relative ignorance of economics and history is their protection. A quick history lesson is in order.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1095269452.php
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"...perception of Vista..."
techboy_z 24th Apr 2008
Um, no, Larry...the *reality* of Vista hurt sales. And btw, it's mighty convenient that M$ doesn't break out its sales numbers, isn't it? They don't have to tell us how much of the revenue was for XP vs. Vista.
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Staff
Two thoughts
Larry Dignan 24th Apr 2008
1. I stuck to the perception line because 140 million copies is a lot--although you can debate how MSFT got there. It's hard to call 140 million copies a straight failure, but the perception is certainly there.

2. I wish they would break out the vista vs XP sales. They just said that it's tilting more Vista now. No idea what that means though. 50-50?
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Some suggestions for MS
otaddy 24th Apr 2008
1. Keep XP selling for several more years but cut Home Basic.
2. Drop work on Win7 and get back to working on the features originally planned for Vista. Deploy these gradually with free feature packs.
3. Give one Ultimate Extra: 1 free copy of Vista Home Premium or Business. Then discontinue the extras program.
4. Fire the marketing team that came up with Vista and get a team that can really build a brand.
5. Stop thinking you need to compete with everything and everyone all the time.
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Vista sold 140 million to date!
mailbox01 24th Apr 2008
Didn't last quarter, MS said they sold 100 million Vista now its 140 million? So in 3 months, Vista sold 40 million and people call it failure? That's impressive considering all the bashing it gets. But apple sells 2.2 mil Macs or 1.4 mil Leopard, and people reacts like everyones getting a Mac. With 2.2 mil Macs sold and 50% are New users, that's pathetic. Funny how the perception of the OS wars (Vista vs Mac) is not the same as Zune vs iPod. Basically the same number of units just reversed Zune.
Hmmmm....
because they gave free upgrade coupons with XP.
So could it be the 40 million includes these "free coupons" that people might well have not used.

Also, if someone bought a PC (with Home Vista installed), erased it, put on XP (with free upgrade that might never be used), could it be that this counts as 2 off Vista sales, when in fact it was actually an XP sale, the customer didn't actually *want* Vista?

I've personally seen the above happen on a number of occasions, so I'd suggest that you take more care over your claims.
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For the most part, if you want a PC, it only comes with Vista.

I thank Dell for selling me one without Vista.

Most other vendors won't...
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Agreed
magallanes 25th Apr 2008
And even yet, there are many cases that people buy a notebook with vista and rollback to xp.
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How many of them are still using it?
John L. Ries 25th Apr 2008
And does this count all of the users who took advantage of their "downgrade rights" (like my boss with his new laptop)?
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New PC pre-installed Sales
starcannon99022@... 27th Apr 2008
New PC pre-installed Sales, likely account for a majority of those figures. What really makes Vista a failure is its ability to function, and the fact that people are running back to XP, or leaving MS entirely for Mac or OSX because of the Vista failure, or lack of one as you see it.

GL with those Vista sales, XP was the last OS I'll ever buy from MS, okay well kinda, I did by an HP Pavilion dv2600 it shipped with Vista, scrubbed it off and loaded Ubuntu though, so MS got its tax, but didn't gain a user, now that Dell offers the 1420n with an Nvidia card I won't be paying MS taxes on future notebook purchases anyway.
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Vista sales vs other platforms
BillDem 24th Apr 2008
Vista unit sales this past quarter (at 40 million) were slightly higher than the installed base of all other platforms combined. I hate that, but it's a sad truth. And it is our fault. If we all keep buying MS products, how are we ever going to communicate our displeasure with their practices? That's why I have decided that if they don't change, the money they got from me for Vista Ultimate is the last dollar they will ever see from me.
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You already gave them your money. To late to "walk the talk" buddy.
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A Parallel Universe...
Joe.Smetona 25th Apr 2008
A Parallel Universe...

Microsoft has already been threatened. Open source has everything going for it except for the dedicated applications. Once companies realize that they can create applications for Ubuntu and sell them, MS is in real trouble. They can even include a free copy of Ubuntu 8.04 in their packaging. Those dedicated MS applications (by third parties) are the foundation of Microsoft sales - not the quality of their OS.

Remember, you can make more money selling applications for a free OS than you can for a $250.00 OS with a bad rap.

If you talk to a Dell sales rep. about buying a notebook and ask for XP instead of Vista, you realize by their response this is something they are very familiar with.
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The ultimate zing
Joe.Smetona 26th Apr 2008
If software companies writing programs for open source throw in a free copy of Ubuntu 8.04 it would be the ultimate zing to MS. Now people with broken, virus infested Windows boxes could install Ubuntu in less than 1/2 hour and be using their new application, surfing the web, using OpenOffice, burning CD's, watching YouTube, etc. --And another windows machine would be taken off the map. It is so easy to install, that even a (well, you know) could do it.
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Microsoft is just plain wrong.
as901 25th Apr 2008
Why is it so hard to understabd that people who build a company might not want a corporate pirate to legally steal their life's work?

Has no one notice that Microsoft has always found legal ways to take the intellectual property of others away from the inventors? Am I the only one who is appallled? With all their wealth ,Microsoft has yet to create anything that was not the invention of someone outside the company.

Mark Heinemann
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bah humbug - microsoft reality
llval@... 25th Apr 2008
Microsoft's Mixed Results Cap Late Sell-Off
http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3742936

Stocks Overcome Microsoft's Miss
http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3743106
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If you can't join'um, Kill'um!

Microsoft will shine in ALL quarters, or they will put the lights out so NO ONE else shines.
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Yahoo by Microsoft!
billy yang 25th Apr 2008
Enough of this speculations. It will eventually become Yahoo by Microsoft. YAHMic!
Any chance of Yahoo initiating a hostile takeover of Microsoft?
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>:)
BWAHAHAHAHA!

Liddell said Microsoft will ???reconsider our options.??? He added that one of those options is walking away.

Thats hysterical, wasn't big bad Steve just flappin about how MS was going to initiate a hostile take over? *snicker*snort*guffaw* LOL, guess he's gonna have Liddell deliver the whiny "were takin our marbles and going home speech" as well no?
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RE: Microsoft's quarter, outlook mixed; Client revenue misses; Xbox shines
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
Interesting sharp posting. In no way previously considered that it had been this painless. Extolment to you pe nfl football shop rsonally!

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