No Apple TV set until 2014, says analyst: What's next for Apple?

No Apple TV set until 2014, says analyst: What's next for Apple?

Summary: According to J.P. Morgan analyst, Apple will not release its anticipated television set until 2014. That leaves two years of 'Apple awesome' on the cards. What can we expect to see?

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TOPICS: Mobility, Apple, Hardware
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Thought you could hold out until 2013 for Apple's long awaited and highly anticipated television set? How about 2014 instead?

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz suggests while Apple prepares the stage for a television set slash service by seeking contracts with major Hollywood studios, the company may not release the hardware until 2014.

Citing economic conditions, the research firm's research "does not indicated any looming TV-related product launch".

Moskowitz noted that the television market is on shaky ground, it would be a risky move for the Cupertino-based giant to throw itself in the ring unless there was a major pull factor.

Apple needs "a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control," Moskowitz noted.

Besides a plethora of reasons, the J.P. Morgan analyst doesn't think Apple would generate a decent profit from the product. "We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market."

The television market at present is not healthy. Sony's television business has haemorrhaged money over the past decade, losing $10 billion from the 20 million sets it builds per year.

Japan's three biggest television set makers --- Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic --- reported a combined loss of $21 billion in 2011 alone. Samsung is faring marginally better as its TV business' profit grew to $467 million from $70 million in 2011.

Apple is known for taking its time with its product launches, and is not known for rushing its way into a competitive market.

The iPad was a work in progress long before the iPhone, from as early as the early 2000's. The iPhone took at least three years of development. Why should an Apple branded television be any different?

With this in mind, Apple has around two years to wow its cult-like faithful gathering.

iPay

Moskowitz said he was "more optimistic" about a mobile payment system, dubbed 'iPay', which could be on the cards. Recent patents show the company could be heading in the direction of allowing its iPhone and iPad users to wirelessly pay for goods and services using NFC technology.

If Apple gets the timing right, it could integrate NFC chips into its upcoming iPhone 5, which is expected to launch later this year. Even if 'iPay' is still a distance off, it could at least set the stage for a future launch, while allowing developers to take advantage of the NFC-enabled smartphone for their own applications.

iCarrier

The technology super giant could also be following the likes of AT&T and Verizon in the mobile carrier space, offering its iPhone and iPad products on an in-house service.

"Apple will soon provide wireless service directly to the millions of iPhones and iPads already in the marketplace," according to one report. It has the distribution channels in place and customer numbers to make the jump from smartphone maker to network carrier, according to wireless industry analyst Whitey Bluestein.

Plus, as Apple has around 250 million credit cards on file, it would make for a seamless billing experience, but a secure source of revenue.

No doubt the networks would claim the move is anti-competitive and kick up a fuss --- as one would expect --- but it would be a unique move for the company should the regulators approve the plans.

At least there's plenty to keep the consumer market busy until a point where Apple could bring out a television set.

Image credit: CNET.

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Topics: Mobility, Apple, Hardware

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27 comments
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  • In all the time I've read ZDNet have "analysts" ever been proven right?

    Don't know what Apple is planning with an actual Apple TV? It could very well be that Apple is doing the old trick of look at what this hand is doing and ignore what the other hand is doing thing:) It could be that the tech they want to put into such a device is not ready yet. I wonder if a Retina Display TV would be of any use? After all volume in production does lower costs and the retina display is getting some pretty huge volume now with both the iPhone and iPad and I've read rumors that it "might" be in consideration for Apple laptops? With increased production of said displays the cost of production goes down right? Maybe Apple is going to put it's game console into the TV? After all if one is going to put a computer into such a device why not also make it a gaming system? In that case Apple would likely want and impressive aray of games ready at introduction and that means developing some one's self and making deals with other gaming companies to have games ready for launch. All this might take time if not already in play. So who knows?

    Pagan jim
    James Quinn
  • Nope

    Life is wonderful outside of Apple's gilded cage.

    No iCrap for me. I prefer freedom.
    Tim Patterson
    • I prefer Walled Garden myself:) After all every such garden

      I've ever seen was well kept, a pleasure to look upon, and a very nice visit on my part. Oh and i could leave said garden any time I choose to do so sort of like my dealings with Apple. Gilded Cage I tend to think is less accurate. After all while "gilded" does make it sound nicer than a plain old cage it is still a cage and that is where the analogy fails for i took a look at all the other options yes even things like Linux and or android and found them not to my liking or I did not like they way it worked. It just is not a good fit for me. So I was not caged I choose the path I am on and again I can leave anytime I choose so the whole cage idea falls flat. Sorry but true.

      Pagan jim
      James Quinn
      • I plant my own garden.

        Literally and figuratively. It's fun and it suits me. I don't want someone to tell me how and what to watch. We already have it all today!
        Schoolboy Bob
      • You can leave, but is it easy to take your data?

        Just curious
        jivester
      • I share data all the time...

        @jivester

        ...and my data doesn't care what OS is at the other end. Neither do I.
        msalzberg
      • Good for you.... Glad you like it.

        Schoolboy Bob

        Some people change their own oil and tires. Some work on their own cars even more than that. Its all good but says little about others needs/wants. I use to build my own computers and I use to own my own little PC shop and built many more for others but that was then now I'd just rather purchase one and be done with it. No particular method is superior to the other just different. You have your way I have mine:)

        Pagan jim
        James Quinn
  • all new iSh*ts must fail

    Considering the unethical margin apple takes from all its products, i am not a well wisher of any apple endeaveours
    owllnet
    • Is there such a thing as an "ethical" margin?

      If so who sets said? And why have I not heard of such? Is this a concept created by well you? If so what is it? From my perspective Apple sells products and while they or it is doing quite well Apple does not have the lead in the desktop, nor in smartphones others do. Apple has the lead in MP3 players but that market is drying up and tablets or the iPad but I think with time that will change. Still Apple will continue to sell and keep it's "unethical" margins because some people (certainly not all) make their free choice to do so. So in the end I think your new margins standard (Ethical vs Un Ethical) may not be universally excepted or recognized. Just saying...

      Pagan jim
      James Quinn
    • I'm sure you're quite happy with your LG phone then.

      With their [b]negative[/b] gross margin on handsets. The expect to get that all the way up to 1.4% by Q2.
      matthew_maurice
    • Econ 101

      Apple charges what price the market will bear. That's about the most basic economic principle out there.
      use_what_works_4_U
      • Rubbish

        and competiotn is essentially survival of the fittest. Which works fine for the predators, not so much for us prey.

        It seems to be a peculiarly American belief that business is somehow divorced from ethics, but I can proudly say in over 40 years of small business, I have never overcharged a client or tried to grab as much as they could bear.

        Greed is good for a few people, but only by them making it bad for others.
        tonymcs@...
  • What's next for Apple?

    Considering the tsunami of malware headed in their direction, I predict that Apple will spend a few of their billions on a security software firm. McAfee, perhaps?
    itpro_z
    • tsunami?

      Pagan jim
      James Quinn
    • Doubt it

      I don't think Intel will sell McAfee so soon after buying it.
      nab123
  • Why article for just another of countless clueless "analytic" ramblings?

    I mean that almost all of those analytic reports are hard proven to be useless. No point to discuss it or even read it.

    (For example, I did not read it, and do not discuss merits of what this analysts said.)
    DDERSSS
  • I think the Apple "TV set" is not going to be a TV set.

    Based on one line in Steve Jobs' autobiography that he had figured out TV, or something like that, lots of people who guess what Apple is up to for a living have concluded that meant Apple will come out with a complete TV set. I think it's much more likely to be a souped-up version of the present Apple TV product. The market for a TV "accessory" would be MUCH larger than it would be for a complete TV set. But I'm betting the BIG feature will be about the delivery of content rather than the hardware. Apple isn't building all those humongous data centers for nothing!
    Userama
    • Thank you!

      So refreshing to find a [i]real[/i] comment after all the meaningless troll fights above...

      I agree, and would seriously consider a "souped-up" version of the present Apple TV for exactly the same reasons. Why would I want to replace all my current TV sets when there is nothing wrong with them?

      Also agree that additional content would be a big drawcard.
      rahbm
  • Not going to happen

    I see no circumstances where it would make any sort of sense for Apple to produce a TV. It's simply not going to happen. We're already seeing the stupidity of so-called "Smart TV"'s, that are already out-of-date as far as their applications go. It makes much, much more sense for Apple to continue to do what it is doing with AppleTV (a separate unit), and leave the TV panel production to someone else.
    The market is way too price sensitive to have Apple come in selling the new iTV for $5000.
    rossdav
    • $5000.00 who said that!?! As for being too price sensitive

      hasn't that been said about markets Apple has done very well in already?

      Pagan jim
      James Quinn