Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

One billion smartphones by 2016, says Forrester

By | February 13, 2012, 9:31am PST

Summary: A new Forrester research report sees over 1 billion smartphones being used by 2016, while app store spending increases and ‘bring your own’ device becomes the norm.

In a world where already you cannot travel on the subway without someone flipping out their cellphone, or stand at a Starbucks without someone yapping away on their iPhone, imagine what’ll happen with 1 billion smartphones out there?

Forrester seems to think so. Analysts at Forrester believe that by 2016 — only four years away, and in time for the following Olympics — there could be as many as 1 billion smartphones on the planet. This isn’t to say that everyone will have two or more smartphones, that is.

There are four key things to take away from this study, conducted from over 60 interviews from mobile executives from RIM and Microsoft, all the way through to Dropbox and Skype:

  • There will be one billion consumers using smartphones, and 350 million of those will be used for work. Over half of that figure will bring their own devices to work.
  • Mobile spending will reach $1.3 trillion and consumer spending in the mobile application store market will reach $55 billion.
  • Apple, Google, and Microsoft will be the platform used by over 90 percent of smartphones and tablets worldwide.
  • Business spending on mobile projects will double in growth.

In the report, it highlights that mobile apps are the “face of new systems,” and act as a “flash point” for more holistic and far-reaching change. Too many people think that mobiles and smartphones are simply another device to keep you connected to the things you are working on.

But in four years time, the possibilities for mobile growth are close to endless. Real-time decisions can be made by consumers and businesses alike from their very handsets. Mobile collaboration and productivity tools mean one can leave laptops at home and PCs in the office, and work from the devices they carry around in their pockets.

With this, however, comes its own logistical problems of IT security and the bolstering of back-end infrastructure. Companies will need to evaluate how to contend with the ongoing battle of user privacy and data protection, and to ensure that systems can guarantee uptime during spikes of consumer and business activity.

Perhaps by 2016, the mobile operators will be able to cope with the vast amount of traffic flowing across its networks. Smartphones are only half of the issue Networks need to speed up next-generation technologies to allow greater speeds while decreasing the pressure on its back-end systems.

Image source: Forrester.

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Zack Whittaker, a criminologist who studied at the University of Kent, Canterbury, is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.

Disclosure

Zack Whittaker

I worked briefly with Microsoft UK in 2006 but no longer have any connection with the company. Regardless, I remain impartial and unbiased in my views.

I don't hold any stock or shares, investments or industrial secrets in any company, but have signed confidentiality agreements with a number of UK and U.S. organisations, whose names I am not at liberty to disclose.

I was involved with Kent Union, the University of Kent's student union, undertaking voluntary, non-salaried, elected positions between early 2009 and mid-2010.

No other company, body, government department, non-governmental organisation or third sector organisation employs me or pays me a salary in any capacity whatsoever.

As a freelance journalist, whenever expenses are given and taken by a company that is not CBS Interactive, these will be disclosed in each relevant post to ensure transparency.

I currently work with a UK law enforcement unit, but this is an entirely separate position which bears no connection to other work.

(Updated: 23rd October 2011)

Biography

Zack Whittaker

Zack Whittaker, criminologist who studied at the University of Kent, UK, is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.

After studying criminology at university, though still in his early-20's, he has already had a series unconventional work and voluntary positions. He has worked with researchers studying neurological illnesses like Tourette's syndrome (which he suffers from), has given lectures on the nature of disabilities in the public community, and occasionally ends up speaking on television and radio discussing the events of the day.

He first had academic work published at the age of 22, then still an undergraduate, and has been cited by a wide range of publications: from CNN, the Huffington Post, AllThingsDigital, The Atlantic Wire and CBS News.

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I would not write RIM off unite yet, they have a good chance of being the number 3 platform. I am not quite sold on Windows Phone, as the numbers do not show it to be a stellar performer, RIM has more market that Windows Phone, by a large margin. There are people that are fiercely loyal to RIM, while Nokia is all but considered evil. Remember Nokia bailed out on th US market, and their products leave a lot to be desired.

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