Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
Summary: The Samsung Galaxy Tab is the first of many high-profile Android tablets. Are they destined to overtake Apple iPad in market share the same way Android smartphones overtook iPhone?
The Samsung Galaxy Tab -- the first mass market Android tablet -- has landed on shore but it is only the beginning of a tidal wave of Android tablets that are going to come to market in 2011. Will these tablets overwhelm the Apple iPad, which currently has over 90% market share in the tablet market, simply because of their sheer numbers?
With multiple manufacturers and wireless carriers dedicated to the Android platform in the smartphone market, Android has quickly zoomed past Apple's iPhone in market share of that segment of the technology sector. As a result, many are expecting and assuming the same phenomenon to happen with tablets.
However, there are those who will argue that while the OS for these tablets has been adapted from smartphones using Apple iOS and Google Android, the market segment itself is much different than smartphones.
For one, the smartphone market was already growing rapidly and had several major players when Apple arrived with the iPhone in 2007 and changed the rules. The tablet market, on the other hand, had almost completely dried up before Apple gave people a new reason to buy tablets in early 2010. Now, the company has sold over seven million of them in six months and created a wave of demand for buyers who want to use the iPad either in place of or as a compliment to other computing devices.
Which argument do you agree with? Answer the poll and then jump into the discussion to explain why.
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Talkback
Yes and no....
Pagan jim
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
That just about sums it up.
Don't know about that.
There were more than Apple and MS originally, but only two survived. You will see the same in smart phones. Eventually only two will survive. I think the situations are more similar than most people realize. My prediction is that only Android and Apple will survive with Android dominating the market, just like MS did, except it is mostly open source and hence much cheaper.
The circumstances that allowed MS to become dominant are just not there any longer. In addition, I still think a LOT of players are weary of MS, and therefore are loath to support them fully. They are more comfortable hitching their wagons to Android than WP7. Eventually, if given a chance, MS will try to stomp all over them. That is what monopolies do.
As many people have pointed out the lack of quality
tjat began to show in the PC world due to Dell and the price wars will very likely appear in the Android device world as well. As will the blankware problems that still plague the PC world. Then there is fragmentation all problems that Apple with it's control have over the years managed to avoid and I would state has been a major reason for the increase in Apple Macintosh market share gains of late. More so than the iPod and iPhone. At least that is my theory. Now the problems that I described are only just starting to show in the Android market but Google does not seem to be willing to or able to address them. Which naturally means they these problems will only get progressively worse much like they did in the PC world over time. Sure Android will gain market share but that could very well in the long run actually SERVE Apple's best interests.
Pagan jim
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
Oh, and the music from iTMS is DRM-Free, and has been for some time.
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
You can...but if you do it converts it to AAC by default, which means you have to convert it back to play it anywhere else (something unwary users should know about). Secondly all of the music that I purchased in to DRM days still can't be converted. It would be a simple solution if Apple would allow the DRM to be decoded by more than just Apple's devices and the limited number of approved non-Apple devices. Moreover you have the ability to sync iTunes with non Apple devices from a Mac...but not from a Windows machine. It's been about lock-in from the very beginning. I don't understand why you don't see the problem here.
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
Frankly I could care less about which company is going to make the most money. What's important to me is which OS will end up being ubiquitous in the market place. Unless Apple opens their OS a little bit (I'm not saying open source, but not everyone likes to code in objective-c), allows users to upgrade memory without buying a new tablet (or phone), and knocks off the iTunes DRM shenanigans they are going to lose partners and customers. They can't count on being the only player in the device market anymore.
See much of my response to Economister...
IT covers much of what you said and is a good response to your post I think.
Pagan jim
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
How many partners is too few? A lot of folks have gotten over their [] allergies. They probably hope you and others don't. Waiting for the winner to write your code? Okay. What if it takes 5, 10, 15 years? Yes, yes, Microsoft won with Windows '95, 14 years after the PC came out and 11 years after the Mac hit.
But isn't anybody else bothered that the iPad is a device and Android is an operating system? Up above somebody has given us the statement that Apple and Microsoft are the only survivors. Of what? There are other operating systems. Microsoft doesn't make the devices that run Windows (with the exception of the Zune and XBox.)
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
Just to address a few points..
<em>What's important to me is which OS will end up being ubiquitous in the market place. </em>
Is this necessarily a good thing? Due to Androids nature, it might be used all over the place but that doesn't mean that one device will be able to run the same stuff as other devices. I've seen more and more the new Android based devices are pushing "specs" of the system... speed, memory, graphics capabilities, etc... This stuff, while it matters on a PC, should not matter on a mobile device, especially when you want to be able to have software that runs across all current devices. The <em>current</em> iDevices come in models that are really only separated by storage size and wireless capabilities ... no one cares how fast the cpu is (some care, but most consumers do not), or how much ram is in it, or how fast the gpu is. Developers have a single thing to write for, and stuff will work across all recent models. With Android devices pushing "specs" will this always hold true there? It's an honest question, I don't know.
<em>...not everyone likes to code in objective-c</em>
It's not necessarily what you like to "code" in, its what you have to program in, in order to develop for the platform. You can also now convert your annoying flash apps to iDevice apps with the recent policy changes.
To directly address this statement though, I can also say "Not everyone likes to code in a rip-off variant of Java." (I myself write stuff in both ObjC and Java ... I actually prefer ObjC).
<em>knocks off the iTunes DRM shenanigans</em>
What shenanigans? Music is all DRM free now if I'm not mistaken. As for Movies... if you purchase a movie using whatever is available on Android, can you copy it off and watch it wherever you want using whatever player you want (another honest question, I've never used an Android device to purchase movies).
Anyway, Apple has never really needed (or wanted?) to be the "only player" in a market. They are quite happy with others being a larger player then them. They do also make a much larger profit on their devices then others, and yet people keep buying them. They must be doing something right.
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
As far as Android being ubiquitous, whether it's good or bad, it means that eventually more software will be available for it. ISV's will be willing to develop products for the platforms that will reach more people. As far as making an OS work for a variety of hardware scenarios, I agree that's a challenge. Google has fared pretty well for the moment, time will tell.
...not everyone likes to code in objective-c
It's not necessarily what you like to "code" in, its what you have to program in, in order to develop for the platform. You can also now convert your annoying flash apps to iDevice apps with the recent policy changes.
My point is this. If you spend all of your time learning objective-c, you'll only be able to code apps for Apple devices. That seems to suit Apple, but it won't suit me. I would rather code for Android with Java...a skill that can be leveraged for other systems.
DRM...
I used iTunes on my Windows box (so I could sync with my iPod) for years. The music I bought during that period still has DRM on it and can't be converted using the iTunes application.
You can't switch the memory with an iPhone, you can't change out your battery without voiding the warranty. You can only install applications from the app store (blessed by Apple), unless you jailbreak your phone...which also voids the warranty. The USB interface on the iPhone is proprietary...I mean the whole thing is a beating. Don't get me wrong...it's a slick product, but good god could they loosen the grip on it?
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
<em>
As far as Android being ubiquitous, whether it's good or bad, it means that eventually more software will be available for it. ISV's will be willing to develop products for the platforms that will reach more people. As far as making an OS work for a variety of hardware scenarios, I agree that's a challenge. Google has fared pretty well for the moment, time will tell.</em>
I agree that Google did pretty well with it. With exception of what the hardware manufacturers were allowed to do with it. In the end, Google just wants consumers using a version of it that relies on their services (and if some vendors fork off their own, thats just a small consequence). The good and the bad about how this will play out is that yes everyone will be using it, and that causes more developers to want to target it, and it creates more competition. The bad of it is how they go about doing that. If they start using different chipsets with different capabilities, different amounts of ram (not storage, but volatile ram accessible to the app), different whatever, then it will start to resemble the desktop world more then say, the console world. In the console world you have pretty much 3 to choose from. Each of the different consoles has its own set of pretty much standard specifications, other then external add-on accessories. A developer knows that every Wii will have X features, every PS3 will have Y features and every XBox 360 will have Z features. Granted there are external addons you can get for each, but these also are pretty standard.
Imagine if the consoles were simply reference systems. You could have 20 different versions of the PS3 each with different network cards, different video and sound boards with different features, etc...
But again, time will tell on this one. It's really in what route the hardware manufacturers decide to go to differentiate their stuff from everyone elses.
<em>My point is this. If you spend all of your time learning objective-c, you'll only be able to code apps for Apple devices. That seems to suit Apple, but it won't suit me. I would rather code for Android with Java...a skill that can be leveraged for other systems. </em>
Fair enough point. While I prefer to actually have a bunch of different languages under the belt to work with (C/C++/ObjC/Java), I can see where it would be beneficial to have one that works all over. Of course there are still downsides to that, and being able to program in a Java like language still wouldn't help you develop for other mobile OS's like WP7, Palm, and BB. It's just one of those facts of life for being a developer, re being fluent in a number of languages, I guess.
<em>I used iTunes on my Windows box (so I could sync with my iPod) for years. The music I bought during that period still has DRM on it and can't be converted using the iTunes application.</em>
That sucks, sorry it can't be converted (not even via the 30c per song "upgrades"?). But this wasn't necessarily completely Apple's fault. They were at the mercy of the recording studios.
<em>You can't switch the memory with an iPhone, you can't change out your battery without voiding the warranty. You can only install applications from the app store (blessed by Apple), unless you jailbreak your phone...which also voids the warranty. The USB interface on the iPhone is proprietary...I mean the whole thing is a beating. Don't get me wrong...it's a slick product, but good god could they loosen the grip on it?</em>
I don't mind so much about the battery and memory (assuming you mean the storage component). Being an iPhone/iPad user since both devices came out, I do agree on the side loading part. I do feel that Apple should allow outside development of applications and a way to load them onto the device. At the same time I do see all these new Android "stores" popping up, and it sorta worries me in how they would all work together, if at all. If you buy an app from one store, can you maintain (upgrade) it via another store that also sells it? or is it "locked" to the store? Is it possible to do an "update all" across all stores? Or would one have to go to each store app and select update? Or have background tasks for each store running? I like the idea of loading my own apps, I'm not sure I like the idea of having a ton of "stores" (though they seemed to have gotten it right on the jailbreak side with cydia and rockapp).
Time will tell for all of this, I suppose.
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
But how is Apple's DRM music you purchased a while back any more annoying than other's DRM music?
Apple have a system that's worked well for them. So well that we are now seeing MS adopt much of it, first with the Zune and now with WP7. Integrated ecosystem, integrated curated app store, proprietary connector etc etc.
I've been hearing for years how if Apple don't "open-up" iTunes to competitors, or add a user removable battery and cover to iPods, or add a physical keyboard to iPhones, or USB/SD card to iPads, or get rid of their proprietary connector, how they will fail.
RE: Poll: Is Android destined to eclipse the iPad, too?
The difference is that with iPhone...iTunes is your only choice for a player which is integrated with the iTunes store. With Android you can buy stuff from Amazon MP3 and that integrates with your player instead...DRM free.
Not quite true
IPod users were able to use other music service since the very beginnings (2001). eMusic were one of the original service that worked well with iPods and iPhones, and still does. Amazon came later and worked just as well, way before you were able to with your Android device. You purchase music from Amazon.com and it adds it directly to your iTunes library. Everything is drm free today anyway so there's really no store iPhone/iPod users can't use.
Android and Google
Most people seem to believe that Android is Google's mobile OS and they argue accordingly. As far as I know, Android is the product of the Open Handset Alliance http://www.openhandsetalliance.com/index.html which probably makes a very significant difference. Look at the list of members and consider whether other OS's have a reasonable shot at dominance.