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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Windows Phone jumping to No. 2 in smartphone market by 2015?

By | January 20, 2012, 3:30am PST

Summary: Analysts predict that new Nokia products designed for North America specifically, including the Lumia 900, will help boost Windows Phone to rank second the mobile OS market within three years.

Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia has the potential to push the Windows Phone ecosystem into the number 2 spot in the smartphone operating system market share by 2015.

At least according to Wayne Lam, a senior analyst for wireless communications at IHS iSuppli, who asserted as much in the market intelligence firm’s latest report about the positive response for the Nokia Lumia 900 after it was unveiled last week at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Senior principal analyst Francis Sideco concurred, adding that “the introduction of the Lumia 900 shows that Nokia believes the road back to smartphone dominance runs through North America.”

The report stipulates that this is because the Lumia 900 was designed with a North American audience in mind instead of Nokia’s traditional route of re-purposing handhelds sold elsewhere and then bringing them over here.

More so, the 4G LTE-ready Lumia 900 has top-notch specs, including a 4.3-inch AMOLED touchscreen and a 12-megapixel camera.

IHS isn’t the only research firm with solid confidence in the Windows Phone platform. A report published by Connected Intelligence, a service of the research firm NPD Group, in September posited that Microsoft’s mobile OS has serious potential to give Android (the current market leader) some more competition.

As of ComScore’s latest figures recording the U.S. mobile market share as of November, Google still controlled nearly half of the mobile OS playing field at 46.9 percent. Apple was in second place at 28.7 percent, while Microsoft was still in fourth place with only 5.2 percent — a 0.5 percent decrease from the previous month.

But leading up to 2015, there are plenty of other factors to consider before iSuppli’s predictions for Windows Phone come true, including how the fragmentation of the Android ecosystem pans out and inevitably with whatever Apple comes up with in the next couple of years.

Obviously, we’ll also know better as to how feasible this prediction is once Windows Phone 8 is finally released.

[Table via IHS iSuppli]

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Rachel King is a staff writer for ZDNet based in San Francisco.

Disclosure

Rachel King

Rachel King has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted in this blog.

Biography

Rachel King

Rachel King is a staff writer for CBS Interactive in San Francisco. Before serving as a contributing editor at ZDNet in New York City for two years, she previously worked for The Business Insider, FastCompany.com, CNN's San Francisco bureau and the U.S. Department of State. Rachel has also written for MainStreet.com, Irish America Magazine and the New York Daily News, among others. Rachel has a B.A. in Mass Communications and History from the University of California, Berkeley and a M.S. in Journalism from Columbia University, where she served as art director for the student magazine, Plated.

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RE: Windows Phone jumping to No. 2 in smartphone market by 2015?
non-biased 26th Jan
@Loverock Davidson- There was a ton of buzz when WP7 finally hit the market too but where are they over a year later?
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The chances/odds are as good as me beating Usian Bolt in 2015.
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And that given that you've broken his leg
ego.sum.stig@... 20th Jan
And then you'd still lose (in all likelihood) by a minute :P
I could see that happening if Android and iOS do *nothing* in the next 3 years. I had WinMo as my mobile phone OS for quite a few years (2006-2011, a Palm Treo and HTC Touch Pro 2) before switching to iOS on the day the iPhone 4S was released. I'm a developer and actually wrote a few WinMo apps but in the phone market, I'm overwhelmingly a consumer and WinMo has a LOT of ground to make up. It's not like Apple and Google are going to stand still and just let Windows eat their lunch. Combine that with the fact that every ad I see says "Download our app for Android or iOS" with NO mention of Windows.
@djlong
Well please don't compare Windows Mobile with anything else. That OS is dead on smartphones and the new OS has nothing even to compare with WinMo as its a complete redesign from the ground up. Its fast with minimal hardware, very relaiable(never crashes at all and most apps work seemless too), and the design is very user friendly. I find it very refreshing to use and its funny when i use an iphone I feel like I am using old technology as the interface is bland and just feels old kind of like the iTunes software compared to the Zune software which is much more with the times than iTunes is. The only thing better the iPhone offeres is the third party ecosystem around it with all the gadgets and apps, but other than that the iPhone really only has one step up with Siri, but even that is not a "must have" feature. Even Steve Wozniak highlighted this and prefers the Android voice system. I just wish the great phones like the Titan and Lumia 900 would come to Verizon instead of At&t, but my HTC Trophy has been rock solid. Haven't had to restart or pop a battery like I had to on the Android platform so its very refreshing to pick up your phone and know each and every time its going to do what I want it to do. Thats very impressive for Microsoft compared to how reliable and such the WinMo platform was. Its just a whole new world for Microsoft and people are started to pay attention!
@OhTheHumanity
Remarkable that the dead old WM platform is still outselling the great new replacement OS. Or has been until recently.

And yes the new OS has nothing to compare with WM. But features that it is missing are being added and by the time it reaches version 8 it should be equal if not better than the old WinMo.

As to it being fast on minimal hardware: It's not available on minimal hardware, so the reader will have to trust that you have seen it operate on such and are reporting the results accurately.

If you like it then that is what counts the most. If you like it more than other OSes then it becomes the default choice for you. I'm sure you will do fine with the ecosystem as it is given your preference and if it ever gets established then the ecosystem will grow.

As for the better handsets arriving at Verizon and Sprint why not just wait for that too? If it's not worth changing carriers for then there's really nothing more to be said. You already have your choice. Be happy for what you have and keep on ignoring what you don't have.
@OhTheHumanity I am also rockinh a Trophy and luvin' it. Hopefully Bid Red will get on the WP train.
@Still Lynn
The new Windows OS hasn't sold well because there have been NO phones for sale... well two low end phones, but compared to the onslaught of droid phones and the yearly updates for the premium Apple phone the MS based handsets will only start to roll out by late spring - early summer of 2012.
@djlong you better jump on board the Windows Phone train. Otherwise you're going to end up out in the cold. WP 7 will be the number 1 OS within 18 months. Microsoft is lining up the factors as we speak to take down both Hemorrhoid, and Crapple. expect Hemorrhoid, to crumble under the weight of theor illegal acts, while Crapple's product is proven to be junk, by the brilliance of Microsoft's superior products.
@Stephen-B You like to talk, but Windows Phone 7 has LOST share recently, NOT gained. they dropped clear down to 1.5% of the market, vs Androids, 53%, and Apples 28%. That's not exactly numbers that will put it anywhere near the 3rd place mobile OS, let alone #1.
@Stephen-B I don't know what you have been smoking, but try not to get caught. We need the laughs.
@Stephen-B

Sounds like another meds withdrawal.

lol...
@Stephen-B

All you need to be a complete fanboi of Microsoft is the sweater with an "M" on it, a short skirt and pompoms...
@Stephen-B #1 within 18 months? What happened to within 12 months which we kept hearing over a year ago? Now it's an additional 18 months. Will it be within 36 months in mid 2013?

So you like WP7, good for you. If you had any maturity you would realize having to resort to name calling only makes your comments irrelevant.
@djlong Things are changing. 1st change, WinMo is no more WinMo and its Windows Phone 7.5 now, its as good as iOS and android, if not better, even though I believe its much better than those two.
2nd change, if you look at numbers, it doesn't indicate that WP7 will grow at the expense of android and iOS, it suggests that it will grow at the expense of "others", which makes quite a bit of sense. Slowly bada, samsung, symbian, Meego will loose their market share. I wouldn't be surprised if WP7 took some market share from iOS and android users, regardless of how good they are and will be in future. People just love change and WP7 is quite refreshing and looks more appealing than others. Its just my opinion though, I would love to know what others think.
@djlong : WinMo?? What are you talking about ... WinMo is dead now... We talk about Windwos Phone OS......
@djlong Wake up Windows Phone != Win Mo !!! Get educated before commenting!!
@djlong
I totally agree. After using the Windows based HTC Pure for two years, going to an iPhone 4S was like coming into the 21st century, finally. I am totally turned off by the 'metro' interface, and won't have a product with that on it. Whoever made up this projection must be heavily into pay from MS, or something it's illegal to sell in most countries.
@rphunter42 So you'd rather use a 30 year old interface (pioneered by Microsoft, btw) as opposed to the latest and greatest Microsoft interface? Crapple lifted the old Windows Mobile interface for their iJunk phones, while Microsoft blazed ahead. Soon the world will know the truth, and Crapple will be shown for what it really is...Overpriced Junk!!!
@rphunter42
So basically you never used a Windows Phone 7.5 device since you state you came from the HTC Pure which is a Windows Mobile phone. No one needed to pay anyone, the new Nokia phones are selling pretty well in Europe and Russia so I think they just see that WP7 is a great OS and Nokia has great design and that is what will sell phones, not a paid study that says they will be such and such by such time! And for the record, most that I show my phone to are not turned off by the metro design, no they ask me "what is that, thats pretty cool" and most of the people I know are not neck deep in tech news or know much about new technologies than what they see and hear on tv/radio and from their friends. You may be turned off, but I am going to venture to say most aren't and won't be and its really not uncommon for an iphone user to shun it as they have invested their money and emotion on becoming an iphone user and they really want to be accepted by others, so its really not a surprise you are turned off by it! I really like my WP7 device, but I don't go around gushing over my device like I just got engaged to it! When someone says they "love" their phone, you need to turn around and walk away, they got some issues! Its a tool, not a girlfriend, though it seems many have found Siri as their long lost partner! LOL!
@djlong
"I could see that happening if Android and iOS do *nothing* in the next 3 years....It's not like Apple and Google are going to stand still and just let Windows eat their lunch."

You mean like RIM did? Complacency is an unusual beast. ;p

But I do agree, it WOULD require Android and Apple to do *nothing* in order for these predictions to hold true. Not likely to happen!

Michael Imbleau
@michaelimbleau@...
So basically everyone that wants a smartphone has one and the market pie is fixed? From my understanding this is a "world wide" prediction and there are still billions of people that don't have smartphones yet. No one is saying Android or iOS will fall off the earth anytime soon, they are expecting this as the market grows and more users become smartphone users. I still know plenty of Americans that still haven't gotten a smartphone so there is plenty of market to be had out there!
@michaelimbleau@... from here on out ever new smartphone purchase will be WP purchase. Nokia is releasing the most advanced phones on the planet, with the most advanced OS on the planet. How can that combination not win?
My opinion is that Windows Phone will take at least 25% of smart phone market by 2015, and that is my conservative side of opinion.
@mymisc ...Then you're a fool or haven't paid attention to trends, mymiscl. A large portion of people resent the Microsoft OS monopoly and won't use Windows 8 on a portable device no matter what, another huge segment just don't like the tile interface, a slightly smaller segment use android for the ability to root the system which (Windows 8) won't let you do, others are already using an iPad or android device and won't switch. When you start to look at what market MS has at it's disposal, getting over 25% or more market share would require 100% of those willing to switch doing so.
@Socratesfoot
Most Android customers are NOT repeat customers. They are first time smartphone buyers. It's just a matter of time before people start to jump off the Android bandwagon because of the terrible user experience... ICS included.
@kris_stapley@... Do you really believe that? Most of the people I know have had multiple Android phones so, I don't know where you get that from at all!
@Socratesfoot
Wow you really know everyone and how they think don't you? See he is saying this because he knows the product and most people you show it to are impressed. I don't think the average person is saying"you know that Microsoft, them big bad bullies with their monopoly and all, so I am not going to use the phone, even though I like it and its impressive"! If you actually did some reading you would find multiple articles of avid iphone users that are impressed and many have actually switched to Windows Phone. Thats the kind of momentum that is needed and no it won't happen overnight. I have trouble finding any articles across many different sources that say Windows Phone is garbage and you should never even think about it! This isn't the first prediction to say Windows Phone is going to grab a good portion of the market in a few years, so maybe these research firms are finding that customer satisfaction is high among early adopters and with Nokia on board its an even better proposition as they make and design great phones! But hey if it makes you happy keep believing what you think!
@Socratesfoot, I think what you consider to be a large and huge portions of people are probably just one and the same large vocal portion of a very, very small portion of people.

However, I agree
@Socratesfoot I am looking forward for Nokia's brilliant Lumia to go on sale here. It will be my fifth WP 7 phone, And further proof that WP & is indeed the future. Form what I've personally heard, Nokia expects to ship 100 million phones with WP7 in the next 12 months. 100 million phones in 12 months will make WP 7 the number 1 Phone OS worldwide!!!!
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@Socratesfoot

I've had IOS and Android. What I've seen of Windows seems to be much better. I am guessing WP7 (8?) will be fairly dominant in the market before too long.
@Socratesfoot "A large portion of people resent the Microsoft OS monopoly..." Really. Outside of geeks and nuts that read ZDNet (of course myself included) what numbers, survey FACTS do you have to support such an asinine claim, though par for the course.
@Socratesfoot
I just refuse to use ANY product with the 'metro' tiled interface. Looks like something I saw on a toy laptop (Vtech) 10 years ago. Unless MS offers a version of Win8 without the Metro interface ever being visible, I will be moving to something (ANYTHING) else.
@Socratesfoot ....
I agree with kris_stapley@. I know of several people who have jumped ship from Droid to Apple because they didn't like the interface or user experience. And there are a few who switch from Apple, but I don't believe anyone is sold on one system yet.
@Socratesfoot I have to agree with @kris_stapley. From people I know with android very few are totally happy. They want a better phone basically which gives them less hassle. Whether the new android OS can offer this in 1-2 years time I don't know but can be too late by then. Will see, I expect windows phone to grow to more than 10% for sure in the next 2 years. Don't forget windows mobile had 35% back in 2007 for smartphones.
@mymisc
And unicorns will eat from your hand.
@mymisc Agreed. Microkia also well placed to pick up disaffected BB enterprise users. Decent OS, cheap handsets and ActiveSync could kill that clunky and expensive BES layer. Yes, WP7 has it all to play for.
@capeleopard

Too bad WP7 and ActiveSync provide a whopping 4 security policies you can enforce compared to BES 500+, heck the free Blackerry Server Express has more secuity controls. Plus there is no way to manage applications with EAS, no secure VPN built into Exchange, limited asset reporting, no PBX intergration, no SMS capture, no browser filtering.

This is all assuming your company is using Exchange and Exchange 2010 for most features.
@Mobileadmin
I am an Exchange Admin and I know of plenty of tools that can be utilized for much cheaper than BES and will do the things you speak of. You know Microsoft for all their faults does do a good job of promoting third party development and not shutting out competition on the Windows/Exchange platform. Maybe you just don't know enough, but I am surprised you would even act like there is not alternative to the BES functionality! And BES can become very expensive and sorry its just another layer that is not needed today.
@OhTheHumanity

I've been supporting mobile technologies in the enterprise for over 10 years and have 6+ years as an Exchange admin. I have seen and demoed just about every solution on the market regarding mobile device security and management.

At the moment we use Good Technology which has been around about as long as RIM's BES. What's funny is it uses the exact same setup. AD service account, MDM server, NOC etc. MobileIron and others are like a proxy to ActiveSync that use EAS but layer on additional management (like the Apple config / MDM API set)

Considering the record growth competing MDM solutions are seeing you are wrong about additional layers of security. Mobile devices require management and EAS alone does not provide that, not at any consistent level unless you have very basic security requirements.

Enterprise mobility costs money. Be it RIM or another solution you will need to budget for this. Are you using some off the shelf free solution? Maybe Microsoft SCCM? thats not cheap nor provides much outside of Microsoft and limited iOS products.

Do an RFP on MDM solutions and let me know how the costs looks when you include all your costs. For what RIM provides they have a competitive priced solution that still has features no other MDM provides. Add the fact Blackberry Server Express is free RIM has options for any companies MDM needs, once Fusion is out (bearing it functions decently) they will have one umbrella for everything on the market.
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@mymisc

http://www.isuppli.com/mobile-and-wireless-communications/news/pages/reports-of-windows-mobiles-death-are-greatly-exaggerated.aspx

For 2012, they would have 15.6% market share second to only Symbian's near 50%. This company does not deal in reality.
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Out they go
Robert Hahn 20th Jan
My opinion is that we will have fewer comments on threads like this once all the Microsoft employees on here get laid off.
@Robert Hahn
Sorry I will still be here! And what layoff's are you referring to? If you read the news today Microsoft just had a RECORD quarter, so there is a long ways to go before you can write any death notices about Microsoft! And their backend businesses are doing pretty darn well right now.
@OhTheHumanity

So Windows sales down 6% is a record quarter? (When it was predicted that it would be down 2%-4%)
@benched42
I never said Windows sales had a Record quarter. The company earnings were a record for the quarter. So you see Windows is not the only cash cow at Microsoft. May want to open your eyes a little.
@OhTheHumanity "And what layoff's are you referring to?"

He's probably referring to the traditional mid-year reset that typically happens in February or March. What else would be be referring to?
Why does nobody recognize that as long as the majority of Android users are rooting their devices that there is no fragmentation in Android or the face that rvrn stock Android differences are no different then "Flavors" of Windows which limit and gimp critical features normally available in the OS. A person running Cyanogen won't care what comes loaded on the tablet and most Android users are not going to care anyway any more then they care whether "Home Edition" allows printer sharing.
@Socratesfoot

A tiny minority of Andoird users are rooting their phone. Not a majority by any means.

Still, I agree with you that the "fragmentation" problem with Android is overblown. Yeah, it exists, but it's overblown.
@Socratesfoot "Why does nobody recognize that as long as the majority of Android users are rooting their devices that there is no fragmentation in Android..." WOw you are a roll with stupidity today.
@Socratesfoot Do you honestly believe that more than even a very small percentage of Android users are rooting their devices?
Windows Phone at #2 in 3 years? Excuse me while I LMAOROTF.
@Loverock Davidson- There was a ton of buzz when WP7 finally hit the market too but where are they over a year later?

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