XP to Windows 7 handoff expected to boost PC sales

XP to Windows 7 handoff expected to boost PC sales

Summary: The bandwagon of folks hoping for a big Windows 7 PC replacement cycle is beginning to fill up. This time, Jeffries analyst Katherine Egbert is expecting users to jump from XP to Windows 7 as companies replace long-in-the-tooth desktops.

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The bandwagon of folks hoping for a big Windows 7 PC replacement cycle is beginning to fill up. This time, Jeffries analyst Katherine Egbert is expecting users to jump from XP to Windows 7 as companies replace long-in-the-tooth desktops.

As noted previously, technology executives are expecting a strong hardware refresh cycle spurred by the end of support for Windows XP and the arrival of Windows 7.

Egbert's report reiterates that stance and adds a few interesting charts to the story. In a research note, she writes:

The upcoming introduction of Windows 7 could spur a rapid corporate PC upgrade cycle starting in late 2010/early 2011, catalyzed by the end of support for Windows XP and a recovery-based increase in IT spending.

The increase in IT spending is a guess, but the move from XP will have to happen some time. Security patches for Windows XP SP2 end in July 2010, says Egbert. That move will prod enterprises to upgrade. Meanwhile, these companies aren't going to upgrade to Vista, which will lose mainstream support in 2012.

Egbert's bet is that corporate PCs, averaging 6 years, are the oldest on record. Enterprises scoffed at Vista's increased hardware requirements, but will upgrade to Windows 7. Here's a look at the XP, Vista and Windows 7 penetration in the enterprise through 2013 via IDC.

Among other points:

  • Egbert expects Microsoft to make upgrading an XP machine to a Windows 7 one easier.
  • Drivers shouldn't be a problem for Windows 7 since they are based on Vista's.
  • Given Vista's flop Windows 7 upgrades are likely to hit 90 percent of PCs within 3 years.

Topics: Software, Microsoft, Operating Systems, Windows

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32 comments
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  • Another clueless analyst.

    [i]Security patches for Windows XP SP2 end in July 2010, says Egbert.[/i]

    Security patches for Windows XP will end in 2014.

    The word analyst is almost synonymous with clueless.

    ye
    • That's All?

      The recession and reduction in the employment and full-time
      employees means there are a lot of computers in business without
      users. I think that capacity will need to be utilized before businesses
      start thinking about replacing machines.

      Win7 drivers being essentially Vista drivers does not help the XP to
      Win7 upgrader.

      Microsoft will make it easy for XP users to upgrade to Win7? Is she
      reporting on something that I missed? Because, it seems to me that
      there are two assertions that Microsoft would want everyone to know:
      1) Win7 is better than Vista, and 2) It's easy to leave XP for Win7. I've
      heard the first. I haven't heard the second. (I believe that I read in
      these pages that XP to Win7 requires reinstall of software: that puts it
      in the "not easy" category in my book.)

      Also, haven't I heard the new Windows will sell new machines tune
      before? The switch from Win2000 to XP will result in hardware sales.
      The switch from XP to Vista will result in hardware sales. I've come to
      the point of view that hardware improvements drive hardware sales
      more than the operating systems. The way I read the industry, the
      hardware folks were way ahead of the os folks in terms of 64-bit. The
      software folks are now, fitfully, playing catch-up regarding the
      parallel processing chips that are already on professional machines.
      Some of Win2000's charm was that we finally had USB in the
      professional Windows os.

      I don't know about clueless. But in my skeptical moments, I think the
      consulting/analyst gig is about adding to the turbulence, so people
      hire consultants and analysts to help navigate the turbulence. Cue Sir
      Elton to sing us out regarding the circle of something.
      DannyO_0x98
      • Totally agree - their predictions based on hot air

        If you rely on software that runs on XP, the only version of Win 7 you could upgrade to is Ultimate (has Win XP mode), and that isn't sold at retail. So it would be a contorted two pass upgrade process thanks to their idiotic crippled-version fiasco version 2.0.

        I've never seen a new OS drive up hardware sales in any significant way, particularly when the new OS is of debatable value and extremely overpriced to begin with. And what do Vista drivers have to do with XP upgrades? Are they just saying Win 7 won't have introduction problems like Vista had? Well, Vista doesn't have those problems anymore either, so what's the point?

        The analysts rarely know what they're talking about. The analysts were all predicting the iPhone 3GS would sell maybe 500k units tops the first weekend, too. I looked at reality and said it would be about a million. They were way off and I was right. You can't predict technology trends by gazing at a balance sheet while pecking at a calculator. That's why they are so rarely right in their predictions. They only look at numbers.
        BillDem
  • Average corp PC 6 years old? So what?

    My office phone is going on 11 years old, still works great and I expect it to live another 10 years at least. We've got laserjet printers that have to be 10 years old as well.

    I continue to be amazed by the number of so-called smart people who think that office equipment are fashion items that "have" to be replaced according to some edict or timetable. We replace stuff when it no longer functions or is unrepairable. Not before.
    terry flores
    • Phones and printers are a little different

      then a PC. A new PC would be more powerfull and faster, yet a phone system is only as fast as it's slowest talker. :)

      Seriouslly, Short of replacing it with an IP based phone system, which have advantages over the older style copper wire units, what can one 6 wire phone system do that is better then another 6 wire system with the same features?

      Printers need not be super fast as they are used for only a small fraction of the time.

      PC's on the other hand do improve each year, and newer models do offer aditional benefits to the end user in many cases.
      GuidingLight
      • once again . . .

        If the hardware does what it needs to do, and is keeping up with the demands of the user, most Corps will not buy new equipment.

        I had a PIII in my office until about 6 months ago, when they sent me a PIV Dell Optiplex to replace it with. The PIII was returned to IT, where they intended to turn it into a kiosk machine for Driver training purposes (most of our driver training is on-line now). The machine was new in 1998-9 or so (it had Win2000 on it, but there was a sticker with a registration number for W98 on the case).

        A corporation will buy new PC's if:

        1) There is a need for additional PCs in an office. And then new equipment will go (usually) to upper management, and older units move down the chain of command . . .

        2) If there is a financial gain from upgrading. If the cost of the new PC comes out to be more than any improvement in work, the upgrade won't happen.

        3) If a PC has a physical issue that requires the purchase of a new PC, and not just a repair (new HD, etc).

        4) A corporation is flush with cash, and is being irresponsible with how they're spending it (Think Government Agency ;) ).

        JLHenry
  • RE: XP to Windows 7 handoff expected to boost PC sales

    Completely agree! People are excited about Microsoft Windows 7! They will do whatever it takes to be able to run Windows 7. If that means upgrading their old hardware which would cost more to maintain and repair than buying new than so be it. Good things are coming.
    Loverock Davidson
    • I doubt it

      I predict sales will be better that the upgrade to Viista was, but it won't be the resounding success like the sales spiel up above.

      I haven't seen anybody get excited over a Windoze release since 98SE
      Wintel BSOD
      • Who really gets excited about

        any operating system? Linux is a yawn, and OS X just gets new updates, nothing fantastic.
        GuidingLight
        • On that, I'll agree with you . . .

          It's like getting excited about getting new razor blades . . .
          JLHenry
      • I don't

        There is going to be a lot of praise for Microsoft Windows 7. Everybody is talking about it. The previews have been phenomenal. People are excited about it.
        Loverock Davidson
        • Indeed

          Though, at the moment, we are hearing from the Windows first-mover
          folks who are enjoying all the benefits without plunking down a penny. I
          say that with no malice intended. If you don't excite the fans, it's difficult
          to interest the netural.

          It will be different this winter when people actually have to weigh
          potential benefits against a tight budget.
          DannyO_0x98
  • Take the plunge and mix it up

    I think that corporations have felt screwed enough by
    Microsoft and are going to become much more agnostic in
    their purchasing.

    With Snow Leopard coming out and completely Exchange
    Server ready, I think more and more companies are going
    to look to Cuptertino as a long-term, cheaper solution
    than Windows 7 and new PC's that have the same issues as
    before.

    Putting PC vendors in competition with each other in the
    enterprise will ultimately lead to a more customer-friendly,
    lower-priced offering and will force Microsoft to deliver
    better OS's faster.

    Vista taught us all a lesson: put all your eggs in one basket
    and you lose any and all leverage over your supplier.
    mlindl
    • Corporate World going to Mac??

      Considering the difference in price of a desktop PC and a Mac with equivalent specifications, there is little chance that Apple will gain any kind of significant traction in the corporate world. It would virtually double their hardware costs while forcing their users away from the environment they're familiar with. It just doesn't make any sense at all.
      Tiggster
    • "look to Cuptertino as a long-term, cheaper solution"

      [i]I think more and more companies are going
      to look to Cuptertino as a long-term, cheaper solution than Windows 7[/i]

      You're kidding, right? Please tell me you were kidding.
      Hallowed are the Ori
      • You think like I do ...

        ... am still drying my eyes over his comments!

        Apple ... cheaper ... Baahahahhahahahhahahhahahahahhahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh :)
        de-void-21165590650301806002836337787023
    • Macs are cheaper

      Because if there not then people will only end up being ripped off more.
      jdbukis@...
    • Re-move to MAC

      I, personally love OSX and Snow Leoard beta. I have computers with OSX one with Win 7 and one with Linux. I hated Vista and dumped it as fast as possible. But the move to Mac is just a pipe dream, no more. Windows has regained some the losses in 09 and will continue that trend with the release of windows 7. Excited..Look around.. Windows 7 and Snow Leopard will both release later this year and by everything I see it is just me and you who care about Snow Leopard....In my useage I rate OSX and Windows7 about equal with maybe a slight edge to Win 7 because of compatability with everything.....everything.
      BOSS4908
  • Glad I don't have any investments with this ding-bat.

    "Egbert expects Microsoft to make upgrading an XP machine to a Windows 7 one easier."

    Really? MS doesn't say it's possible:

    http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/dd446674.aspx#BKMK_UpgradeFromXP
    IT_Guy_z
  • You guys can't be serious ...

    ... can you?!?

    "...XP to Windows 7 handoff expected to boost PC sales"

    I mean, seriously? ZDNet "thinks it" and what? That makes it so?

    That ultra-optimist, sales spit has to be right up there with the greats.

    "GREAT" SALES PITCHES OF THE MODERN ERA:

    #1: "Use Thalidomide the world's No.1
    late-pregnancy medication for women. To
    give expectant mothers "that special
    little pick-me-up".

    #2: "Do you have problems with bugs? Well,
    don't wait any longer! Get your own can
    of aerosol DDT now and be DEAD certain
    you made the smart choice!"

    #3: "Asbestos - the miracle flame retardant
    for 'safe' industrial practices of every
    kind!"

    #4: "Drive Ford Pinto ... for safe and sound
    motoring."

    (Enough said!)

    ... I'll take a piece of that action. Who's the in-house bookie for ZDNet?



    thx-1138_