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2.1 million Windows Phone 7 licenses sold to OEMs in 2010

By | January 26, 2011, 2:30pm PST

Summary: Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 7 operating system seems to be doing pretty well, with a fast growth in applications as well.

Tomorrow Microsoft will host its latest earnings call and in advance of this, I had the opportunity to speak with Greg Sullivan about Windows Phone 7. We heard some fairly impressive sales numbers in December and Greg informed me that Microsoft sold 2.1 million licenses of Windows Phone 7 to OEMs, up to 31 December 2010. This figure was about 1.5 million in mid-December so they are showing nice growth here.

Microsoft also conducted some surveys of Windows Phone 7 buyers and found that 93% of these owners are satisfied or very satisfied with their new phone. 90% also recommend the product to others so these survey results are quite positive and match my own personal experiences.

As I talk about in my Windows Phone 7 Wednesday software feature, there are now over 6,800 applications for Windows Phone 7 with a growth rate of about 400 apps per week.

I imagine when we see more phones and more carriers, namely Verizon, we may see more people trying out Windows Phone 7. As I have stated before, I cannot give up my HD7 and am extremely pleased with Windows Phone 7 so I am very happy to hear it is doing pretty well and also hearing that Microsoft is in it for the long haul. We will soon see an update, more applications, and more hardware so go to your local AT&T or T-Mobile store and try one out. Everyone I have shown my HD7 to has been quite impressed with the UI and experience.

These figures may not sound like much when compared to iOS and Android, but Windows Phone 7 is a completely new OS and should continue to grow over time. There is still a lot of room for growth in the smartphone world and Microsoft is making moves to aggressively promote Windows Phone 7.

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Matthew Miller started using a Pilot 1000 in 1997 and has been writing news, reviews, and opinion pieces ever since.

Disclosure

Matthew Miller

Matthew is a professional naval architect by day and a mobile gadget freak at all other times. He purchases his own devices and then sells them on eBay or Craigslist to buy more. Many other devices are sent for review on a 30-day loaner basis and then returned to the carrier or manufacturer. If any are provided as “long term loaner units” this will be clearly disclosed in his reviews.

Biography

Matthew Miller

Matthew Miller started using a mobile devices in 1997 and has been writing news, reviews, and opinion pieces ever since. He is a co-host with GigaOM's Kevin Tofel on the MobileTechRoundup podcast and an author of three Wiley Companion series books. Matthew started using mobile devices with a US Robotics Pilot 1000 and has owned over 125 different devices running Palm, Linux, Symbian, Newton, BlackBerry, iOS, Android, webOS, Windows Mobile, and Windows Phone operating systems. His current collection includes an HTC Radar 4G, Dell Venue Pro, Apple iPad 2, HTC Flyer, Samsung Galaxy Nexus, Nokia N9, Apple iPhone 4S, MacBook Pro, and many more, along with tons of accessories and classic devices like the Apple Newton MessagePad 2100 and Sony CLIE UX50. Matthew can be found on various discussion forums under the user name of "palmsolo".
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RE: 2.1 million Windows Phone 7 licenses sold to OEMs in 2010
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
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meaningless number.
@DonnieBoy

Then explain why it increased. If all the previous licences are still sitting on shelves, how did they sell more?

You really are starting to sound desperate Donnie, I can only hope your psyche doesn't suffer irreparable damage from another MS success.
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@tonymcs@...

Why not push MS for the real end-user numbers. When released, the facts will stop the naysayers like DonnieBoy in their tracks. Microsoft's weird behavior here is fanning the flames. . . . or are the naysayers correct?

Think about it . . . .
hankie pankie. If the actual sales are about the same as the "shipped" units, that sure would shut us up really fast!!!
@ DonnieBoy..

So when they was saying Apple is the 3rd largest computer company because they "SHIPPED" so many Mac computers, that don't count right because they didn't show how many they sold just shipped right?
@tonymcs@? It really sound like Microsoft is desperate. IF Windows phone 7 series phones do not sell well the OEMs may seek to get refunds on unsold licenses. If that were to happen, then Microsoft would lose a great deal of money. So there is a concerted effort to keep the actual sales numbers away form the public in general. Saying you sold a license sticker, to an OEM is not the same as your competitor saying they activated a license for the consumer. You got that? Yes, Microsoft sold a lot of license stickers. But how many are for the yet unreleased CDMA version of these phones? If the phones went on sale in October (abroad), and November (Domestically); how long before that were the licenses ship to the OEMs? So the numbers are not all that kosher. If Microsoft came out without he number of activated phones, and they know exactly how many were activated, it would show some level of honesty. Instead they count the licenses (stickers) sent to the OEMs. Which is not only dishonest, but deceitful.
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30 million WP7 Phones by end of 2011??
guihombre 27th Jan 2011
I reckon it's less than 200k, because if it was say half a million, they would point to the Nexus one 100,000 sales and say 'look we sold far more than Google at their launch'.

So it will not be significantly more than Google Nexus One sales. My guess is 200k or less.

I'm guessing they have price breaks at 500k and 100k, so 4 OEMs committing to 500k licenses and 1 committing to 100k would account for the 2.1.

Their claim based on IDC, is 30 million WP7 phones by end of 2011, which seems a bit laughable if they can't even release actual handset sales.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-counting-on-brand-new-users-to-hit-30-million-windows-phone-7-target/6375
@DonnieBoy To yesterday, probably less than half a million, if the Facebook app scrape data is relevant. http://j.mp/gl6Fom

That would make less than 4,500 activations a day worldwide, and trending down.

The trend should turn down real quick now that Intel has announced plans for an x86 phone running Windows 8 - which could not possibly be compatible with WP7 of course. Why would you buy or develop for a phone when you know its end-of-life date is so close?
@symbolset
Not all users use Facebook. Even if you say so, there are 600,000+ active FB users, which is more than half a million as commonsense says.
@Rama.NET All you're doing here is drawing attention to my link, which is going to let people see the numbers. You don't want that. You're working against your own purpose here. Are you sure there's not an applicable section of your astroturfer's handbook you should review?

And you read the numbers wrong too. The native and official apps are duplicative.
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@symbolset
Even if they are duplicative, the information is clearly showing it is progressive. Just compare it with Android and iOS hits and the trend is same. So you can't say it is not doing good. And Windows 8 is going to be unified code base for both WP7 and Windows 7 if all goes well according to plans, at least thats what I read from the blogs here. If that is so Intel releasing a phone with Windows 8 wouldn't be a surprise. To each their own. Also my numbers analogy is not wrong. Native Facebook app just gets integrated with People Hub and that is very limited. Facebook app does more than that. There may be overlapping but not entirely invalid. And also I can show there are people who dont use Facebook at all and have iPhones, Android, BB, Nokia, WP7, WinMo etc. So counting on Facebook activations or hits is just plain wrong and never give you the big picture. That is what I was telling about.
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@DonnieBoy
2.1 million
@Loverock Davidson Woohoo lovie, they printed 2.1 million stickers! And it only cost Microsoft several hundred million dollars to achieve that. Way to show a profit, oh wait, that would be a loss. Now add to that the BOGO deals that it took to sell that 360,000 Zunephones. Wow I mean wow. I guess the Wow is now, huh? More like ?Wow they spend all that money and still can?t sell the phone based on merit?. happy happy happy
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@Rick_K
2.1million from zero is a loss? I hope you don't do accounting at your workplace. Microsoft SOLD 2.1million phones and sold out in some countries. Again, how is that a loss when the phone has only been out for a few months and they started at nothing? LOL go back to elementary math class and learn a thing or two. You said it, Wow I mean wow.
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@Loverock Davidson Once again Lovie, you missed the point. Just be glad that ignorance is not illegal.Microsoft printed up 2.1 million stickers. This does not mean that 2.1 million phones exist, only that there are plans for 2.1 million phones. For all we know, half of the licenses are for use on the CDMA versions. But those versions are not on sale at the moment. Got it? Just to blindly say that there are 2.1 million Zunephones in the wild is ignorant. It is probably closer to 350,000 Zunephones. Which is not a good number for two plus months. Microsoft will not tell anyone how many are activated, only that 2.1 million licenses were sold to the OEMs. There is no direct correlation between a license sold to an OEM, and a Zunephone sold to a customer.
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@Rick_K
there are plans for 2.1 million phones.
Exactly! 2.1 million phones plan to be sold and this number keeps going up and up and up! That is excellent considering the phone has been out for only a few months. No other phone has sold this well this quickly. Microsoft sold 2.1million of these to its customers which are the carriers. Now its up to the carriers to sell it to its customers. There has to be at least 1.5 million of them out there because as others have said, they just keep selling more and more. I can't understand everyone's fascination with find out how many phones have been activated. It doesn't matter, all you need to know is that 2.1million phones are in the works.
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not only meaningless...
banned from zdnet Updated - 27th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy
but a very bad number. poor wm fanboy matthew tries to spin the extremly bad numbers as "nice growth" which is ridiculous at best. 2 million in almost a quarter (which translates to a whooping 20 million in revenue and is probably around 2% market share) is even worse than their old windows mobile 6.x numbers. they should pull a kin on this and spare them the embarrassment.
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Again for the slow class:
Pete "athynz" Athens 27th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy Microsoft sold 2.1M licenses to 3 hardware manufacturers - HTC, Samsung, and LG. With me so far?

So Microsoft SOLD 2.1M licenses to manufacturers.

Now the 3 manufacturers have collectively produced 2.1M units - as the manufacturers are not going to buy licenses for devices they are not going to make.

So now we have 2.1M licenses sold and 2.1M devices made.

These 2.1 licensed and produced devices are sold and shipped to various AT&T stores - so now we have 2.1M licensed, produced, and shipped devices at the stores.

Most locations keep very little stock on hand - they are small stores selling many different models and brands of devices from feature phones to smartphones and inventory space is at a premium.

So why keep harping on Microsoft for activation figures when Microsoft has already sold the 2.1M licenses - ask AT&T for the sales figures.

Now honestly this "how come MS isn't releasing activation figures" crap is getting old - you guys sound like broken records...
@athynz I believe his point of contention is that the OEMs have purchased 2.1 million licenses. Not that there are 2.1 million phone in the hands of customers. being these are not just Android phones with a different OS, but different phones. The point being is that the major OEMs might be buying licenses based on how many the plan to build, as you can?t build a Zunephone without a license first.
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Sold licenses != sold, or even built, devices.
matthew_maurice 27th Jan 2011
@athynz Part of what a lot of people like you miss here is the way a software licensor can account for "sales" to the OEM licensees. Something Microsoft has traditionally done is "sell" X number of licenses to an OEM for Y amount of money, often at a price that is significantly less than what .5X or even .1X licenses would cost, thus encouraging the OEM to buy way more licenses than intended devices. Another approach is to sell X licenses to the OEM that represent "an optimistic estimation" of annual production, but charge for the number of licenses in an initial production run. MS will then defer billing on those additional licenses until the devices are built and sold to retailers, often under additional deferred billing. They have to account for this in their results, but they can legally say they "sold" those licenses quarters or sometimes years in advance.

We keep sounding like a broken record because Microsoft keeps obfuscating their "real" sales numbers. Today's results call will shed some light on the matter.
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The point of contention is
Pete "athynz" Athens 27th Jan 2011
@Rick_K and matthew_maurice that you keep saying that Microsoft is not providing information that is really AT&T's to provide.

Microsoft is saying they sold 2.1M licenses to date - granted that may not equate into 2.1M devices built but honestly what manufacturer will buy a license and NOT build the device? To me it is common sense to build the device the license was purchased for which is why I'm saying that collectively 2.1M devices were built by LG, Samsung, and HTC.

So why is there no call for any of the manufacturers to release their figures on the number of WP7 devices built?

Now I'm not usually in a position to defend Microsoft even though I use their products but I feel like I need to point out that Microsoft HAS reported how many licenses were sold. It should be up to the manufacturers to release how many WP7 devices were built and up to AT&T to disclose how many WP7 activations there were.
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@athynz Maybe this will shed some light on the subject. Mind you I am no expert, but I do have the ability to understand discounts based on volume. Say Microsoft offers 350,000 licenses for $12 each, which is roughly $4.2 million. Now lets say Microsoft offers 500,000 licenses for $8 each, which is $4 million. As an OEM which would you buy? Personally I would buy the half a million licenses for $4 million and keep the savings. Microsoft does this with Windows 7 licenses. The more you buy the lower the per unit cost is. Now as a cellphone OEM if I only make 400,000 phones I can throw away the remaining 100,000 licenses and still come out ahead. It is really just business 101, get the better deal. Using this model can you see how Microsoft can make their claim, while the OEMs do not have to produce the entire run?
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@Rick_K That still does not negate my point of why you are harping on MS to provide the data that AT&T should be.
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Why would the number of activations matter to anyone, if Microsoft's balance sheet only needs the number of licenses sold? From a financial standpoint, it would seem that Microsoft needs to count only the licenses for their licensed products (WP7, Windows 7) not the number of end users or activations.
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@1019902735 if microsoft wishes to sell more licenses in the future.
@Mister Spock Thanks, and I understand...It just seems as though, to some, that no matter how many licenses are sold to OEMs or end users, that Microsoft will not have a winner with WP7. I think it will do even better once it is released to all US carriers.
different than 2 million licenses "shipped". Printing a bunch of stickers and sending them to manufacturers is not very interesting.
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@Mister Spock Which would mean - in the case of WP7 - that one would HAVE TO purchase a WP7 device from AT&T... therefore AT&T would be the more logical company to have the sales information.

As others have pointed out how come the number of licenses sold to the manufacturers increased if the demand is not there? That goes against basic economic theory.
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@1019902735
Agreed. Microsoft bashers are desperate for the actual sold figure. you have to check on AKH's blog post here on ZDNET on the same, and both Ron Burgundy and Donnieboy were desperate to get the number of devices sold, and Rick_K was not able to digest the info and claiming that those are in stockroom at the word of Microsoft to create hype about phone. BWAAAAAAHHHH
NT.
@Rama.NET Does the truth hurt? Here?s clue for you, oh omnipotent one. 2 million stickers sent to OEMs does not equate to 2 million phones! There are licenses that the OEMs have for phones that have yet to be built. So saying that licenses equate to activated phones, is just intellectually fraudulent. Got that? Microsoft has a history of inflating numbers to make the product look more desirable. The anecdotal evidence that I used (remember I saw that first hand), goes along with a known Microsoft practice. Like how Microsoft never broke out the numbers of replacement xbox 360 from the total units shipped. And after spending hundreds of MIllions of dollars, on the ?Really?? ads, they are still seeing only minimal sales. As an investor in Microsoft you should demand to see the numbers, as it would show honest demand for the product, instead of another version of the Kin. Also of note; when shopping for the kids christmas presents, I saw literally hundreds of Kinects int the local Mall around christmas time. So how many were actually sold to the end users? Again Microsoft counts units in a warehouse as marketshare.
@1019902735
The reason for the curiosity if caused by the behaviour of MS in respect of WP7. MS, the company that boasts about everything, has been very coy about WP7. Until now, there has been little information on sales figures. As well, MS has apparently refused to release info on the number of apps sold or the income from apps, even to developers. They won't receive that info until next month. Compare the behaviour and lack of info by MS in respect of WP7 to how it is trumpeting the success of Kinect and you begin to understand why many people are curious. MS, by its own behaviour, is the one generating the negative curiosity and speculation and WP7.
@ptorning
They also never released any figures about Windows Mobile even when it was #2 SmartPhone only after RIM. Kinect is made by Microsoft, Kin was made by Microsoft, Microsoft peripherals such as Cam, Mice, Keyboards etc. are made by Microsoft. XBox is made by Microsoft. Winmo phones and Windows Phone 7s are made makers. Microsoft never released how many Windows Desktops/laptops made by a particular manufacturer either. They always tell how many OEM licenses + off the shelf sales of licenses of Windows through channels like Best Buy. Here also they are talking about licenses and that seem pretty reasonable to me. If the stuff is not moving makers wouldnt buy more licenses, i.e. like 600,000 in two weeks from 1.5mil to 2.1mil and if carriers are not selling them makers wouldn't produce those many in these days of drastically bad economy. Also Microsoft is not in a commanding position like it did once at least in the mobile arena. They are underdogs in mobile, so no one are really feared of them. Microsoft itself accepted it is marathon not sprint.
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@Rama.net
I agree with the points that you raised, especially that more licences would not be sold if carriers are not selling devices. And I can assure that that i am not being negative towards MS. Nonetheless, as an observer, I do note some interesting behaviour MS that is feeding speculation. I was merely explaining that there are some differences in the way that MS is handling WP7 what is giving rise to negative speculation. In particular, MS is not releasing, even to developers, the number of sales of apps not income for their apps until Feb 2011. You have to admit, that is quite unusual . . .
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@ptorning
I am also not blaming you. I understood your point and also it is really stunning that Microsoft choose not disclose after so many requests for actual devices sold. My wild guess is that they are saving it for MWC 2011, which is just couple of weeks away from now.
They probably only pay when the phone is activated.
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@Rama.NET not quite true, Microsoft only lists what was sold to the distribution channel, they have never divulged how many were activated.
Example 1: Microsoft sells the OEM a quarterly allotment of Windows license. If the OEM doesnt build that many computers they carry the extra licenses.
Example 2: Microsoft sells 1 million retail copies of Windows 7 Home premium to the retailers, again not all of these are activated by end users. If they were the shelves (and stockrooms) would be empty.
Yes Microsoft sells a lot of copies of their product, but the actual installed and actively used number is less than what Microsoft reports. The xbox is a whole different animal, Microsoft counted warranty repairs along with new units sold. They refuse to breakout the numbers of repairs as opposed to new units shipped. The failure rate was so high that it cause Gamestop to raise their price on extended warranties. Doubling the price, due to the shear number of failed xbox 360s. Sure the failure rate has dropped dramatically, but when you start out with a close to 60% failure rate, it should drop dramatically.
do not have to pay until the unit is sold to a consumer. So, they may have "shipped" 2 million licenses, but, there may be a lot less phones manufactured.
@DonnieBoy
". . . the manufacturers probably do not have to pay until the unit is sold to a consumer." Do you have any information to substantiate that or is it your own, special form of speculation?
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Guess what...
james347 26th Jan 2011
...another meaningless number.
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As are your posts
Mister Spock 26th Jan 2011
@james347, yet that has not stopped you from continuing to post.
plain
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2.1 million? The numbers just keep going up and up and up! Earlier today it was only 2million. WP7 is doing something right.
@Loverock Davidson
Actually it was 2.1 million, but blogosphere neglected to quote original that includes one of the Apple fanboi blogger here.
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@Rama.NET
It's a bit complicated. Bloomberg's headline was 2 million shipped and in the article, Bloomberg's writer said "more than 2 million." Kingsley-Hughes quoted the title.

But that was described as "shipped" (which is why I checked, as Microsoft does not ship phones and I wanted to see who introduced that verb.)

2.1 million licenses acquired by OEMs, now this is a number I think Microsoft could quote accurately, especially as it is their point of revenue.

Mr. Miller's implication that 600,000 licenses were acquired in the last two weeks of December seems shaky. Maybe it's my faulty recollection, but I didn't see a date when a different Microsoft executive reported the 1.5 million number. An end of November number makes more sense to me.

We also don't know if the licenses were acquired by manufacturers who had phones available at WP7 rollout or if these are new models and manufacturers coming to market and filling up their sales channels.

I would think that the best case scenario is 600,000 phones were sold and these licenses are for phones to replace in the stores the ones bought. But I think there is some roll out still underway and so I wouldn't be surprised if the sales were 300-400 thousand. I would be very surprised if licenses were being acquired in numbers less than units sold.

While the carriers and stores can send back unsold phones for a 70% refund, I bet Microsoft does not refund license fees for stuff that comes back to the manufacturer.
@DannyO_0x98
I agree with you. I am hoping Microsoft is saving the information for MWC 2011 which is just couple of weeks away. But on 12/21/2010 Ms. Racheal blogged on these forums about 1.5 Million licenses being sold, here it is for your reference, http://www.zdnet.com/blog/gadgetreviews/microsoft-has-sold-15-million-windows-phone-7-devices-already/20913
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Dear Wall Street Morons, pointless reporters, and brainless commentors,

In light of your stupidity regarding sales numbers, I want to give you some education that a 3rd-grader should understand, I hope you won't ask the same question again.

1. 2.1 license sold to OEM is the exact number you want, because that's the most meaningful one. For one, that's how the money is counted; and two, there is no way you can cover up sales this way, because people look at growth. As it appeared, the number for WP7 is growing in healthy rate.

2. # sold to end user, if you really want one, the best you could get is an rough estimate. That's why you won't get one.

Wall Street's Stupidity has been deep, I don't think anyone can change that, but this is my best effort.
@jk_10 Actually you are wrong in these aspect. License stickers sold to the OEMs is quite meaningless. If the phones are not sold to consumers, then the product is a failure. Leaving OEMs with unsold licenses is not going to make them want to take another risk. It?s the old fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice shame on me. I personally think that the Microsoft Kin experience is one of the larges factors influencing people?s decision on purchases.

This sounds a lot like channel stuffing. Will Microsoft be a responsible party and refund the OEMs on unsold licenses? Or are the OEMs expected to eat that loss? This could turn out quite badly for Microsoft if the Zunephone doesn?t sell well.
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@Rick_K Then explain how the number of licenses sold to manufacturers has risen. We've gone from 1.5M to 2M to 2.1M in licenses sold. If there is a growth in licenses sold then the corollary is that OEMs have sold enough devices to carriers to support the purchase of the additional licenses which means that the carriers have sold enough devices to place the orders for the additional units.
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@athynz Actually no it does not imply that at all. Remember there are supposed to be version of the Zunephone sold on other carriers. This might represent a new model for a different carrier. You know how it goes, keep throwing things up against the wall till something sticks. I highly doubt that there are 2.1 million Zunephones in the wild. I have only seen a few, and they were in the AT&T Store. Funny part is no one was looking at them, or touching them. They were sitting on the shelf, but I did see a few peep buying iPhones. Now later this year I may decide to give in and buy a smartphone but I will evaluate all of them honestly before buying one. I have played with an Android phone, an iPhone and briefly played with a Zunehone. To be honest as it stands right now Id either buy an Android phone, or an iPhone. The features of the Zunephone are not that appealing to me. I would also have to spend several hundred dollars to use a Zunephone, as I would have to buy a pc in order to sue it. As the Zune software is not compatible with a Mac.
Time to let this one go and start fresh on something else. There's no way it went from 1.5 to 2.1 if the 1.5 weren't gone. Only a troll would cling to stupid notions like activations or facebook in the face of real numbers. And to all the cry babies whining about sales number update frequency - GROW A BRAIN. They'd be stupid to waste anyones time reporting them more often than they have done, which is about once a month.

MS has a success on it's hands. It's a more stable and secure os than android or ios. It's got a much better looking and much more responsive ux. It's gotten to 1M and now 2M way quicker than android or ios. It's appstore is setting records everyday getting to higher numbers far faster than ios and android did. The 3rd party apps there are more functional and much better looking than their android/ios counterparts. You should be applauding them and rejoicing in the fact that the competition is going to be good for pushing android and ios to move forward. Yell upstairs and ask your mom to bring you down some cookies to make you feel better and come back tomorrow with a new found happiness that WP is such a great success. happy
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RE: 2.1 million Windows Phone 7 licenses sold to OEMs in 2010
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
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