IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

Summary: It seems that the smartphone forecast models may look favorably on the Nokia Microsoft partnership with Windows Phone 7 predicted to surge to number 2 behind Android by 2015.

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Back in February Nokia and Microsoft announced that Nokia would be putting Windows Phone 7 on its future smartphones and I was quite happy because I am a fan of both, but many were not pleased with the news. According to this new IDC forecast for the smartphone market, Windows Phone 7 is predicted to be the number 2 mobile OS in the world behind Android by 2015.

I previously questioned the value of 3-year forecasts in the fast moving smartphone world and still think it is tough to predict what is going to happen. Microsoft and Nokia could break up if things don't work out, Apple may come up with some major change in iOS that gains them some market share, or HP's webOS could even break the 5% market share level.

2011 Market Share 2015 Market Share 2011-2015 CAGR
Android 39.5% 45.4% 23.8%
BlackBerry 14.9% 13.7% 17.1%
iOS 15.7% 15.3% 18.8%
Symbian 20.9% 0.2% -65.0%
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile 5.5% 20.9% 67.1%
Others 3.5% 4.6% 28.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 19.6%
-Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, March 29, 2011

As recent market share data has shown, Apple's iOS has plateaued. I think this is likely due to limited carrier availability and a stagnant OS interface, when compared to the fresh user interfaces coming from Android and Windows Phone 7. RIM is also predicted to continue at a fairly steady pace for the next few years, but if the enterprise market decides to go with Windows Phone 7 they may just see more of a decline than predicted. Symbian of course will see a major drop in market share, although there will continue to be low end Symbian devices in the market.

What do you think of this IDC forecast?

Topics: Operating Systems, Apple, Hardware, Microsoft, Mobility, Smartphones, Software, Windows

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41 comments
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  • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

    They didn't get the memo that Windows Phone is DOA? I guess not. People who have tried Windows Phone like them so maybe IDC is onto something.
    marksashton
    • Well, very few are voting with their wallet and actually buying WP7 phones.

      They take a look at the sorry WP7 interface and then are buying iPhone and Android.
      DonnieBoy
    • Given some 95% of symbian users

      Aren't migrating to wp7 today, it's surprising Idc has 100% migrating to that platform in the future.

      Simplistic analysis, disconnected from market realities. Not a good basis for predictions.
      Richard Flude
      • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

        @Richard Flude Actually, they do not have 100% migrating, they actually project a decline somewhere. 2011 is 20.9% for Nokia and 5.5% for Windows for a total of 26.4%. Then the total for 2015 is 21.2%, just the coincidence of 20.9% appearing twice may be confusing
        owlcrimson@...
  • Fresh User Interfaces...

    Fresh User Interfaces...?! Yea I want apps I can't uninstall, carrier splash screens, carrier ring tones, carrier logos stamped on my phone... Yeah thanks I'll stick with Apple.
    Hasam1991
    • I am sure that Apple will remain strong, and will come out will

      create more must have innovations over the coming years. I imagine that Android manufactures will also come to realize that the crapware is going to kill them sooner or later.
      DonnieBoy
    • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

      @Hasam1991 You're right. Forget Safari, itunes, connecting to multiple networks and devices.......oh wait............
      ssc@...
  • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

    I would be rather scared if I was Nokia and saw these figures. Essentially these figueres say that Nokia will end up with about 15% market share by 2015, less than they have with Symbian today (which is about 20%)
    superuser111
    • We have not heard the last of the OS story at Nokia. Sooner or later they

      will realize that it is suicide to try to switch all Symbian users to Windows Phone 7.
      DonnieBoy
    • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

      @superuser111
      You obviously dont read much or have much grasp of business, they have over 30% today with symbian and had 50% a few years ago, at this rate of decline by 2015 they will have a massive 0%.......so yes they have to do something about it.
      saf312
      • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

        @saf312
        You make a fairly bold interpolations here buddy.
        kirovs@...
  • When Nokia starts seeing the defection rates, they will have to offer

    another OS to the arsenal so that people that do not want Windows Phone 7 have at least one other option to stay on Nokia hardware. Nokia should focus on where they are strong: very good hardware design at a reasonable price. Trying to force people into Windows Phone 7 is a recipe for disaster.
    DonnieBoy
    • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

      @DonnieBoy
      I think you'll find thats what their doing focusing on Hardware and letting the biggest software company in the world concentrate on software
      saf312
      • Well, if they were only focusing on hardware, they would do multiple OSes

        They should create the best hardware, and let customers decide on OS. Also, given that Europeans are not exactly happy with Microsoft, many that would have remained loyal to Nokia hardware will switch because of the OS.
        DonnieBoy
  • Wrong

    This prediction is too cautious, I can see Windows phone 7 right up there neck and neck with Andriod by 2015. Nokia has lost big market share before but then bounced right back. As soon as Nokia gets a half decent OS millions will return. Nokia is massive around the world apart from in US, Apple will be soon back to their usual role of niche market player
    saf312
    • The problem is that Windows Phone 7 remains unpopular. It is a clumsy and

      ugly interface, and in Europe where Nokia is strong, people have an aversion to Microsoft. All of this is a recipe for disaster.
      DonnieBoy
      • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

        @DonnieBoy

        Donnieboy, go back to your cr apple forums and talk about how awesome you THINK the ifad and iphone are.
        Then come back in 2015 and lets see who has the last laugh.
        mikroland
      • Are you crazy???

        @DonnieBoy : Ugly UI??? Are you serious?? iOS UI is look like an excel sheet compared to WP7 ...

        In a couple of year WP7 Nokia Phone will Rock the market for sure!!!
        EricDeBerg
      • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

        @mikroland
        Please go back to hiding under your bridge and jumping out to extort tolls from the villagers who cross it.
        DeusXMachina
      • RE: IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

        @EricDeBerg
        Yes, ugly. And the market agrees.
        DeusXMachina