Windows Phone to pass iOS by 2016, Android at 53%
Summary: I am not a fan of long term predictions in the mobile space, it just moves too fast, and while I would like to see stats like IDC predicts I will have to see it to believe it.
Readers here know that Windows Phone is one of my favorite platforms, especially with the Nokia Lumia 900, but I also regularly state that long term predictions in the mobile space are not very valid. Thus, even though I hope Windows Phone succeeds, I have a hard time buying into the latest IDC report that shows Windows Phone passing iOS by 2016. They are both predicted to be at about 19% of the market while Android falls from the current 61% to 52.9%.
Note that this prediction shows BlackBerry holding fairly steady at about 6%, but unless RIM has a major turnaround with BB OS 10 they may not even make it to 2016. I can see iOS remaining fairly steady since it seems people who want an iPhone already have an iPhone and Apple tends to sell new devices to existing iPhone users now. I would believe Android increasing more than Windows Phone increasing over the next four years, but we will just have to wait and see what happens.
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Talkback
I agree that RIM basically holding on to what they currently have is hard
that's a BS prediction
The rest will be android and Linux.
Pengunistas have been declaring Year of the Linux Desktop every year
you don't know squat
Then it is a good thing
I don't get it
http://xkcd.com/605/
Joey
Not much of a decline
#ChartReadingFail
I agree
Windows Phone to pass iOS by 2016, Android at 53%
"OS/2 will dominate the desktop within five years"
nuff said
Reports predictions assume the unknowable
When you assume - you assume that 'emerging markets' will become captive to Microsoft's walled garden out of brand loyalty to Nokia?
As more and more emerging market consumers become able to afford smartphones, why wouldn't they follow the rest of the market; race to the bottom on cheap hardware powered by a free OS (Android), or affluent consumers settling on Apple?
This report is telling Microsoft marketing execs what they want to hear, to save them from the wrath of you-know-who.
And to save you know who from the wrath of the board.
Why not?
I am suspicious of these projections, but there is undoubtedly some path dependency in these things. It's much harder to take market share once competitors already have entrenched positions, even if a product is competitive. In emerging markets, Android and iOS aren't entrenched, so the playing field will be more level. Nokia also have connections with the local mobile operators, and a lot of experience in localisation for emerging markets. Both will undoubtedly help.
As an aside, how is Windows Phone any more of a 'walled garden' than other mobile platforms? It's clearly less of one than iOS, because there are multiple sources of hardware. Why is it more 'walled' than Google's Android ecosystem?
Not sure I quite understand
And Samsung doesn't? LG? Places like India and China are highly capitalist, competitive marketplaces. If consumers want to keep up with modern phones, they're not going to be stuck with Nokia because local phone stores and networks are pushing Nokia.
I think in truth what we have here is Microsoft can't make a dent in the developed world, so they're pitching a fable about how they're going to make it all up in the third world. Consumers buy what *they* want to buy, they don't take their orders from local providers, even if those providers decided they wanted to push Nokia for whatever reason instead of embracing Samsung and LG.
My prediction is that with minor variations the world market for handsets is going to be relatively the same globally for reasons that are the same there as they are here; iOS devices are more desirable but much more costly, forcing them in to a minority market share. Android is wild west but free, so it will have dominant share, and Windows is essentially a nonentity.
As for walled garden, iOS is a walled garden certainly. But walled gardens at 20% of the market are a lot more attractive than those at 3 or 4 percent of the market.
Conspiracy theories?
"I think in truth what we have here is Microsoft can't make a dent in the developed world, so they're pitching a fable about how they're going to make it all up in the third world."
I see, so you imagine a conspiracy involving IDC making things up on behalf of Microsoft and Nokia. Sorry, I don't take conspiracy theorists seriously.
Perhaps there's going to be a "right-sized" analyst or few at IDC
Who knows, probably this analyst gig pays say 7 figures and you get 12 months holiday a year and you get to get away with putting out pap like this once in a better trot out something stirring moment or few.
I can predict...
The smartphone market dynamic is constantly evolving and even if Windows Phone still has the capability to capture some significant shares, one should be very carefull to predict the current leaders fall. Assuming the leaders will be standing still is puerile thinking.
Not everyone who wants an iPhone has one, I don't
Sort of like the Rules of Acquisition
Considering the number of phones that will be sold in 2016