Laptops & Desktops

John Morris & Sean Portnoy

Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say "yes" -- by 2024

By | February 19, 2012, 5:49am PST

Summary: Researchers from the University of California, San Diego have discovered that shrinking solid-state drives results in severe enough performance degradation that they doubt the flash-based storage will have much of a future once the manufacturing process gets down to 6.5nm.

Here’s something to throw a monkey wrench into that whole “SSDs are the future of storage” theory. Researchers from the University of California, San Diego have discovered that shrinking solid-state drives results in severe enough performance degradation that they doubt the flash-based storage will have much of a future once the manufacturing process gets down to 6.5nm.

The scientists recently shared research they did on 45 different flash chips in various sizes, which showed that latency and error rates are sufficient enough that when they extrapolated the results to 2024 — when SSD drives are expected to be produced at 6.5nm — they question the drives’ viability. As more capacity is squeezed into the chips, the findings show, bandwidth suffers, whether using SLC, MLC, or TLC flash.

The researchers did not use the custom flash controllers that manufacturers have developed to overcome some of these deficiencies, so it’s conceivable that technology could be created to compensate for this expected degradation in the decade before the end is foreseen. Still, the findings confirm long-standing concerns about SSD reliability that have helped limited the technology’s mainstreaming (though higher prices are obviously the biggest culprit).

Have concerns about performance degradation kept you from purchasing a solid-state drive? Are you worried about SSD’s future as a storage medium? Let us know your thoughts in the Talkback section.

[Via Computerworld]

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Sean Portnoy is a freelance technology journalist.

Disclosure

Sean Portnoy

Sean Portnoy is a freelance technology journalist; currently, all work that Sean does is on a contractural basis. Sean has also written corporate communications documents for CA.

Sean does not accept gifts from companies he covers. All hardware products he writes about are purchased with his own funds or are review units covered under formal loan agreements and are returned after the review is complete.

Biography

Sean Portnoy

Sean Portnoy started his tech writing career at ZDNet nearly a decade ago. He then spent several years as an editor at Computer Shopper magazine, most recently serving as online executive editor. He received a B.A. from Brown University and an M.A. from the University of Southern California.
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
Third of Five 23rd Feb
@Peter Perry I would be somewhat surprised if there isn't something that leaves both HDD and SSD tech in the dust by then (13 years is a long time for some R&D). For that matter, computers themselves might be fundamentally different from the way they are now, to the point where SSDs and HDDs as we currently know them simply aren't practical to use in them anymore.
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Until I can get a terabyte $500 I have no reason to upgrade personally.
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@Frenz9 So why waste the extra money when the device may not last for even a year?
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@wackoae My setup: 120GB SSD primary drive with O/S and Software on it; 1TB HDD with media on it.

Boot time is 12 seconds with Windows 7 SP1. No program takes longer than a second to start.

Seems worth it.
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@wackoae -

Agreed.

A big box blue store had a big sale on ____-brand 120GB SSDs ($160, regularly $220). I almost bought one, but did a quick check - people left and right were reporting this model drive died after 3 months, going through the brand manufacturer was a pain, the big box blue store doesn't offer extended warranties (easy to see why...), and voila - stuck customers.
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@wackoae
SSDs are better than performance HDDs.

I replaced my four 150GB Raptors with SSDs after two of them died a few years ago. I had a dedicated 120mm fan trying to cool their 40W, but now have no whine or chatter, no heat and super speeds.

We would rather have the silence than cheap drives.
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@wackoae
Yeah, I had one and it was going fine for about 3-4 months before it died. Won't use one again.
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Dude, that is 13 years from now! By then I would hope that the technology matures to the point that the errors are reduced.
@Peter Perry ... Hmmmm 2012? Maybe we are in the end times!?!

Pagan jim
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@James Quinn -

Back when the Mayans made their calendar, they ran into a similar type of problem. They ran out of data storage.

In short, they ran out of rock to chisel on, got bored, or Cortes and his buddies arrived and slaughtered them all in the name of promoting Christ or whatever... (history is cool...)
  • Flagged
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@hypno
baggins_z 20th Feb
If you're going to do history, get it right. Cortez went after the aztecs for their gold. And he had a lot of help from neighboring tribes because of the Aztec's nasty habit of raiding surrounding villages for human sacrifice. The Mayans also had the lovely practice of gathering up slaves to sacrifice. And you think Christianity was the problem...
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
Third of Five 23rd Feb
@Peter Perry I would be somewhat surprised if there isn't something that leaves both HDD and SSD tech in the dust by then (13 years is a long time for some R&D). For that matter, computers themselves might be fundamentally different from the way they are now, to the point where SSDs and HDDs as we currently know them simply aren't practical to use in them anymore.
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It's always something
Robert Hahn 19th Feb
I seem to recall that when the 64K RAM chip came out, there was an issue with alpha particles whizzing along and knocking electrons off their perch, turning 1's into 0's. The error rates weren't enormous, but high enough to cause concern about using the chips for anything serious. We were told then that the 64K chips were probably the smallest features we would ever see on RAM chips.
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@Robert Hahn
What happened was there was some radioactive material in the ceramic. No one had checked for that because it had never been a problem. For awhile they were thinking it was cosmic rays but then the found out about the contaminated material.
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@Robert Hahn

"I read the article, but it wasn't clear whether it was a magnetic platter drive. Just that the access times would be state of the art. It will show up kind of like when Intel bought Infinion Technology back in 2005 for their nand development and transistor evolution development."
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Future concerns?
BorgX 19th Feb
OK. So if they can't manufacture SSDs on 6nm, then they'll be stuck on a process thatis a little bit bigger. They SSds are so much faster than current HDDs, that the HDD technology would need to leap past some of their constraints. With Trim, there's very little, if any, performance degradation. I'm not worried that a future 6nm process might introduce too many errors or performance degradation because by that time it'll be solved (or we'll just end up stuck at the process slightly bigger than that).
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
iPhoneDude777 19th Feb
I firmly believe we'll have something faster than flash by 2024.

This could pose a potential problem for flash drives though as they increase in capacity, but we'll come up with something to deal with any errors/deficiency.
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
http://wednice.ru/ 19th Feb
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@http://wednice.ru/ -

Spam is best in a can. So please can your spam.
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
MatsSvensson 19th Feb
"The researchers did not use the custom flash controllers that manufacturers have developed to overcome some of these deficiencies"

So they don't take into account even the available technology of today?
Clap.... clap... clap...
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@MatsSvensson Agreed, this article is stupid. Of course there will be patches and workarounds to make the solution viable!
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
http://wednice.ru/ 20th Feb
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I've got SSD's in my home computer, laptop, work computer, and several for other people. They are an order of magnitude faster than hard drives, but they cannot hold as much data. Hybrid drives are the most likely outcome in my opinion, because I just cannot see that people like me will want to sacrifice the speed advantage.

This is investor FUD. SSD's may not be the ultimate hard drive, but they are so fast they are redefining what storage is in a computer. Some motherboards already come with SSD as cache for storage on whatever drive you install.

OCZ already makes MaxIOPS drives that use a larger process, 34nm instead of 25nm. This is for a different specific reason, but still related to speed. SSD's are all about speed right now, so they will not go there if it phases them out.

My point is that SSD's are not going away, and it is silly to think that they are. They will find a new niche, a solution to this problem, or something better will come around. The same has basically been said for hard drives for years, it is just that they have never had competition before. And 13 years from now? Who really looks at those projections? I will upgrade my computer 5 to 7 times before then. That's astrology economics in my opinion.
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@verteron -

If it weren't for "investors", I wonder how much more honest everyone else could be by default...
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SSDs are still unreliable as hell. Most don't even last long enough to cover a full year of warranty. And when they die .... the data is basically unrecoverable.
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@wackoae
Where exactly are you getting your data? Because I can't find any studies to support that. I have several computers with SSDs as the primary drive and they're all running fine, and have been for a varying number of years. Haven't had one go bad yet, but I make regular backups just in case.
Anybody can make up bogus information - reality is usually more interesting.
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They last longer than a year
KendallBennett 19th Feb
@wackoe what SSD drives have you been using? I have yet to have one actually fail on me to be honest and I have been using them for quite some time. The older drivers (pre Sandforce 22xx) had serious performance issues after a few months of use, but the current crop of drives keep on ticking.

Now if we wish to compare how HARD DRIVES last, I can tell you I have had a fair number of drives go bad in the last two years. Especially the consumer grade ones. Had two go bad in my NAS device here at home, and I had all kinds of problems with my WD Raptor drives in my system and a number of other systems at work. Personally I find SSD drives to be far more reliable than hard disks to be honest.
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@KendallBennett But under real work loads, the average SSD last about 9 months before they die without warning.

On the HDD, it depends on the brand and model. Some last a long time, others (specially cheap models) may die sometime after the warranty is over. But with them, depending on the problem, there are many inexpensive ways to recover the data. With SSD, the only way to recover data (if possible) is extremely expensive and time consuming.
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
JustCallMeBC Updated - 19th Feb
If we don't have petabyte-level, quantum-mechanical storage by 2024, we might as well hang it up as a technological species.
The second feeds into the first as then random writes of small files (that is smaller than the SSD block size) will result in a full block being rewritten to update only part of it. Of course, the write levelling means that the 'same' block is actually being 'rewritten' to another place. This is called write-amplification and can result in more writes than if the blocks were smaller.

That is why I have formatted our SSDs with 64kB sectors, even those it results in more slack space (unused part of sectors), with 8% loss with general data files, but 0.5% loss with multimedia files (which are generally much larger than blocks).

Even using 64kB sectors on HDDs results in 30%+ faster transfers of 1GB of mixed size files between drives than the default 4kB sectors. The specs for HDD IO ops at 4kB sectors are abysmal compared to SSDs.
as long as there is enough free space. An almost full drive that has a lot of write thrashing to the small spare space may well reach the limits.

For those that don't know, the write limitations do NOT result in data loss, but when reached a block will not be allowed to be rewritten to. That is the total drive capacity will begin to decrease. Reads are not affected, and if you use them to store mostly read, occasional write, multimedia files, write limitations will be totally irrelevant.
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I've been using SSDs for well over a year now and have deployed different makes, models and capacities with no data loss issues, only massive performance gains and happy customers. My advice - don't buy cheap and do your research before you buy.
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Not worried.
DevGuy_z 20th Feb
1) Other SSD technology (perhaps not flash based) will probably come along and it probably won't be that big a jump.
2) So far, many limitations that have been predicted regarding the end of Moore's law have substantially failed to come to pass.

I am still waiting for prices to come down further.
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I've used SSDs for more than 3 years now without a problem. After 3 years of nearly instant application launches and 12-second reboots, I won't go back to HDDs. Given how fast technology progresses, I'm guessing that in the next 12 years we'll either be on to something newer, or the issues with 6nm technology will have been addressed by then.

I'm not sure what kind of drives wackoae is using, but drives from reliable manufactures like Intel, Toshiba, and Samsung hold up pretty well. Perhaps there's a reason those manufacturers don't produce SSDs with the fastest specs.
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Hybrid solutions
avatoin1 20th Feb
Well. I just want more RAM and better pre-caching. Add a little SSD for more caching, but when my OS is using 100% of available RAM for precaching problems and files, I don't really need an SSD. What I do need an SSD for is when the HHD is being used so much that access times suffer.
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I do get it; there are physical limitations on size of hard drives yet it physical limitations does not doom hard drives. If we can not shrink SSD silicon anymore, we just place more chips on the circuit board or multiple silicon in each package.
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2024?
MC_z 20th Feb
Heck, by then I'll be back to crayons and drooling a lot.
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12 years is a Long Time
jpr75_z 20th Feb
In the Technology/IT world. I wouldn't be at all surprised if SSDs are deprecated by newer technology. How about holographic crystal arrays that store petabytes of data in a .5 inch cube. Nothing to lose any sleep over.
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
Lightning546 21st Feb
My biggest issue with purchasing an SSD to replace my Raptor X boot drive is that they are prohibitively high in price. And having worked in the semi conductor industry manufacturing Nand flash memory as well as knowing exactly how much each 8 GB chip costs to manufacture (currently less than 50 cents) it really irks me that those manufacturers refuse to stop price gouging us when we buy their products. Or make a product that will last for years instead of months.

The biggest problem with disc based storage is the spining platters and read/write heads, the clearance between the heads and platters is about the diameter of a single strand of hair. So when you have a platter spining at 10,000 RPM (like the Raptor drives do) a head crash becomes instantly catastrophic to the drive and now you've got a boat anchor. The adavantage to SSD drives is the elimination of all mechanical movement, so they should live and perform at their maximum potential indefinately.

But if they did then those same manufacturers would soon go out of business because they wouldn't be selling replacement drives, so they build them to live for a specific time before they die so that you will be buying a new drive every 5 to 10 years (or less), which keeps them in business year after year. It's the same with appliances, televisions and cars/trucks.
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I have been quite lucky. In the 20 years I have used PC's (since 1992) I have never had a Hard Disk Failure. Even when I managed a system that had 50 networked pc's.

I am leary of flash based on the reports I see of degradation while in use. I don't really need my PC to start in 1 sec.

But having a high speed place to put all the temporary files that these internet browsers dump on your computer could make a difference in the speed of IE, Chrome and Firefox. But is it worth it? My feeling is No.
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RE: Are SSDs doomed? Researchers say
rahulc73@... 21st Feb
That is when you are talking about 6.5nm. We are currently at 35nm and even getting to 15nm is few years from now. On current drives, I have two 240GB's for office and gaming use, they have been terrific over the past 7 months. I am not even guessing that they cannot be the future. They are the future. If these fail, then we are also talking about RAM and RAM drives that will eventually be 1-2 TB's when that's all you'll really need. And that's coming soon.
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Was this the same team that said CDs would last forever? SSDs are where storage is going, until we invent a better solution. They are a fast, durable, and shock-resistant solution for mobile devices. Keeping in mind that the devices that incorporate SSDs will be obsolete before the SSD is obsolete, why is this theory even newsworthy?

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