Is Facebook’s IPO an exit strategy?

By | February 2, 2012, 8:00am PST

Summary: There’s money to be made on Facebook’s IPO but is it a long-term investment? I don’t think so but there’s much to consider.

It’s no secret that I’m not a huge Facebook fan. All you have to do is read some of my other posts on the topic. I think Facebook’s IPO comes at a time when Facebook is on its way out–out of our lives and out of our gadgetry–for good. I believe that a lot of people have discovered that it’s a waste of time and computing resources. It was cute for a while but now, they’re trying to rekindle interest in this juvenile phenomenon by issuing this IPO. It’s silly but it will make megamillionaires and billionaires out of people who aren’t qualified to deliver pizza. Crazy stuff, that.

I think the IPO is a last ditch effort to breathe life into a failing concern. But, it won’t work. Not for long anyway. I think people will wake up and say to themselves, “OMG, I have invested in something that doesn’t really exist except in Cyberspace. I’ve…I’ve…invested in AIR!”

They’ll wisely pull their money out and Facebook will fall to the wayside.

Goodbye and good riddance.

Although I hate Facebook and I think that the IPO is really just a money grab for those who own stock, let me add this: If I had stock in Facebook, I’d sell it as soon as possible and retire comfortably on my ridiculously gotten gain. Yes, I’d be on the phone to the broker and say, “Show me the money, baby, I am outta here.”

I don’t trust the stock market. I’ve seen fortunes lost in it. It’s the same logic that keeps me out of the casinos. Sure, some people win but the losers far outnumber the winners. I don’t like to lose so I don’t play and I never bet unless it’s a sure thing–and it never is. But, if I were the guy who painted that mural at Facebook and today he might be worth $200 million dollars, I’d take the money and run.

However, there will be people who ride it all the way to the bottom.

I can’t wait to hear the “analysts” discuss Facebook’s meteoric rise and fall. Everyone will give their roundtable spins as to the whys and hows and no one will remember this humble prediction. Except for me, that is.

Years ago Zuckerberg had an offer on the table for a couple billion dollars for Facebook. He didn’t sell it. I would have. He held on. People don’t know when to let go. Of course, he stands to make billions more now but my guess is that either he’ll ride it to the bottom and end up with almost nothing or he’ll wisely bail on it. The smart people involved will use this IPO bubble as an exit strategy out of a dying animal’s carcass.

My advice is that if you have Facebook stock that you should cash it in because it will never be worth more than it is right now.

Why? Because it’s a silly social network thing. It’s false, people. There’s no value in it. It’s a bunch of blips on a computer screen. It’s a false way to be “social.” It’s the latest MySpace.

Be smart, don’t gamble your underfunded retirement on it. If you get the twinge to do it, think about Enron, WorldCom and so many others. Also, think about MySpace. MySpace was “all the rage” a few years ago. Now, you couldn’t sell it for the electricity it burns up. A few years ago, everyone had a MySpace page. You had to have one or you didn’t really exist. That’s Facebook.

Facebook and the rest of “social” media is basically a scrolling wall onto which you “spray” your graffiti. It’s now an acceptable form of communication. By acceptable, I mean accepted but pointless.

If you don’t think Facebook is ridiculous, perform the following test.

Sit someone down across from you and pretend that they fell into a coma in 1993 and woke up a few days ago. Now, explain Facebook to that person. Hopefully, less than three minutes into the conversation, you will feel embarrassed and silly by talking about it, when you say things like, “You can post to their wall” or “I can update my status.”

You must feel extremely important, if you truly believe that anyone cares what you’re doing or where you’re doing it.

Status update: I’m at a Lady Gaga concert. Woohoo!

Here’s an idea, turn off your damn phone and enjoy the concert by being there. Unless you think your Facebook pals are at home saying, “OMG, Jenny’s at the Lady Gaga concert, Jenny is soooo cool.” I know it’s crazy to ponder this but you could just call Jenny later and tell her about the concert or perhaps you and Jenny could actually go and hang out at the mall and tell her about it…OK, wait for this one…face to face. GASP! Is it like really possible to like talk to someone like when you’re actually like looking right at them?

Whew, sorry, I digressed. I haven’t had my pills yet today. I’ll update my Facebook status after I’m done with this post and my wife will read it and then she’ll like bring me my meds.

Just so that we’re clear here. Facebook is bad. The IPO is a money grab. Don’t fall for it. If you have fallen for it, snag your profits and update your status that you just made a million dollars. You’re welcome.

What do you think of Facebook’s IPO? Is it doom and gloom or renewed awesomeness? Talk back and let me know.

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily e-mail newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Topics

Kenneth 'Ken' Hess is a full-time Windows and Linux system administrator with over 15 years of experience with Mac, Linux, UNIX, and Windows systems in large multi-data center environments.

Disclosure

Ken Hess

My full-time employer is EDS (HP). I write as a freelancer for ZDNet. The postings and opinions on this blog are my own and don't necessarily represent EDS's, HP's, their subsidiaries or affiliates positions, strategies or opinions. I own no investments or direct financial instruments in the companies I write about.

Biography

Ken Hess

Kenneth 'Ken' Hess is a full-time Windows and Linux system administrator with over 15 years of experience with Mac, Linux, UNIX, and Windows systems in large multi-data center environments.

Ken writes on a variety of topics including interoperability, virtualization, data center operations, databases, and open source software. He has written and co-written books on Linux, databases, and virtualization. He currently writes a System Administration column for Linux Magazine and is a regular contributor to Linux User & Developer magazine, ServerWatch.com's Trends and InfoStor. He often contributes to other online and print publications as well.

His first computer was a Commodore VIC-20, which he purchased because William Shatner was in the commercials.

In his limited spare time, Ken enjoys painting, drawing, and flinging angry birds at fortified pigs.

Talkback Most Recent of 29 Talkback(s)

  • ZDNet Gravatar
    tgolembiewski
    2nd Feb
  • ZDNet Blogger

    RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @tgolembiewski

    Trolling?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    khess
    2nd Feb
  • Not trolling
    @tgolembiewski
    I wouldn't say it was a troll, it's just that some people fear which they don't understand, and just hate for hate's sake.

    (Oh, and don't take any stock advice from a tech writer. Why do you think they're tech writers?)
    ZDNet Gravatar
    William Farrel
    2nd Feb
  • RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @William Farrel

    "Kenneth 'Ken' Hess is a full-time Windows and Linux system administrator with over 15 years of experience with Mac, Linux, UNIX, and Windows systems in large multi-data center environments."

    I am not implying that you can take stock advice from sysadmins
    ZDNet Gravatar
    mKind
    2nd Feb
  • Not sure how he's "hating for hate's sake"
    @William Farrel

    Is that the new, let's say Facebook gen [?], way one sizes up things when there's a disagreement with your point of view?

    Very cute. Covers a plethora of abstract ground too.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    klumper
    2nd Feb
  • ZDNet Blogger

    RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @William Farrel
    (Oh, and don't take any stock advice from a tech writer. Why do you think they're tech writers?)
    Because we want to be tech writers. Don't take stock advice from stock brokers. I have a better predictive history than they do.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    khess
    2nd Feb
  • RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    Sorry Ken- but I think you are off on this one.
    While I agree that most users of FB use it for infantile comments and it is a complete waste of time, it does not negate its commercial value. Advertising access to millions of users who spend more time in front of FB than in front of TV is worth a boat load of money.

    BTW: I find it rather ironic that there is a "FB like" button at the bottom of the article happy
    ZDNet Gravatar
    renetheberge
    3rd Feb
  • RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @renetheberge And it's still not proven that being in front of the ads on FB drives any sort of action or behavior from the viewer. The same thing could be argued about TV, but the expectations around TV ads are different because watching TV is a passive experience whereas using a computer is a more interactive one. TV ads are about bringing attention to the product or brand and associating some sort of connotations or emotional response with the brand. The whole premise, originally, with internet ads was that people could click them to learn more or even be taken to a shopping cart and make a purchase. Who do you know that does that? Obviously people must at least click ads or I guess Google wouldn't rake it in like they do, but I just find that internet ads don't leave a lasting impression and are easier to tune out.

    The other issue is that part of what helped FB succeed is that, while people do like some personalization, My Space was a free-for-all with people using all sorts of handles and littering their pages with all sorts of crap. FB offered a consistently clean interface that forced the use of real identities and connected people based on some sort of common denominator. If FB's attempts to monetize its traffic become more transparent to users, there could be a backlash, much like there is around the privacy issues or redesigns they do...
    ZDNet Gravatar
    bxp24
    3rd Feb
  • RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    "Is it like really possible to like talk to someone like when youre actually like looking right at them?"

    I LIKE that question !

    If you post if on your facebook wall, I will "like" it.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    mKind
    2nd Feb
  • Hey, narcissism will continue to be around....
    ...so that should keep FB going for a while at least.
    But a big AMEN to your sage investment advice, Ken. I'd avoid this one like the plague.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Userama
    2nd Feb
  • Not one word about Facebook being a data mining company.
    It's not a social networking company. The software isn't their product. Your personal information is. They are a data mining company that has a monopoly on the largest pool of consumer marketing data in the entire world. Seriously what the f--k are you talking about?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    rwhitake
    2nd Feb
  • ZDNet Blogger

    RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @rwhitake

    So, what are all those people doing updating their statuses, uploading pictures, playing games and chatting with each other?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    khess
    2nd Feb
  • RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @khess They're making up a portfolio of marketing data with their profiles' interests, likes, etc that Facebook uses to sell direct advertising. There's just no reason for your argument aside from you not liking Facebook. People are addicted to this crap. Facebook isn't going anywhere. Google+ isn't gaining momentum, and no other real competition. My main issue with this article is still that you're not analyzing the actual product, just voicing your annoyance with social networking as a trend in general. But social networking has nothing to do with this IPO aside from the membership numbers.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    rwhitake
    2nd Feb
  • RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @khess
    you have a point but then again you could ask the same question about google or cable TV services. They exist merely because they make money off marketing. I would not call many companies as being IT but rather marketing companies that use technology for their profit.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    The Linux Geek
    2nd Feb
  • ZDNet Blogger

    RE: Is Facebook's IPO an exit strategy?
    @rwhitake

    It still has no value, which is the point of the post. It doesn't matter how much data you have on someone, you can't make them buy what they don't have money for.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    khess
    2nd Feb

Talkback - Tell Us What You Think

Formatting +
BB Codes - Note: HTML is not supported in forums
  • [b] Bold [/b]
  • [i] Italic [/i]
  • [u] Underline [/u]
  • [s] Strikethrough [/s]
  • [q] "Quote" [/q]
  • [ol][*] 1. Ordered List [/ol]
  • [ul][*] · Unordered List [/ul]
  • [pre] Preformat [/pre]
  • [quote] "Blockquote" [/quote]

The best of ZDNet, delivered

ZDNet Newsletters

Get the best of ZDNet delivered straight to your inbox

Facebook Activity

White Papers, Webcasts, & Resources