DIY-IT

David Gewirtz

If Apple can’t keep its own site up, can we really count on iCloud?

By | October 4, 2011, 10:50pm PDT

Summary: Since Apple claims iCloud will be the central hub for the digital lives of a hundred million or so iOS users, they need to be able to prove iCloud will be able to hold up under the demand.

Update: I published this article before the heartbreaking news of Steve Jobs’ passing. Our condolences go out to all of his family, his friends, and those who worked for and with him.

My thoughts: One more thing. Remembering Steve Jobs.

The original article begins here.

Yesterday’s iPhone announcement was full of both surprises and letdowns. For all of us pundits, our pre-announcement of the non-existent iPhone 5 was something of a universal disappointment.

See also: ZDNet iPhone coverage

On the other hand, Apple (who, to be fair, never, ever made mention of an iPhone 5) announced a fair successor to the iPhone 4, complete with faster processor, better camera, and new voice capabilities.

But the iPhone 4S is not really the big news of the week. The big news is that iOS 5 — the version of iOS that is meant to bring Apple users into the world of cloud computing — is set to debut in seven days.

Seven days.

At that point, Apple is going to ask you to trust them with your documents and your mobile life, all constantly and dynamically syncing to the cloud.

Or, well sinking, anyway.

Here’s what’s got me thinking. Yesterday, Apple did a product announcement. Granted, every new utterance from Apple is treated as the second coming, often with almost as much interest as a Super Bowl, but even so, yesterday was just a product announcement.

Many tech Web sites buckled under the load. We, here at ZDNet, were going to live blog using a service called CoverItLive, but within minutes of our logging in, the service died, presumably under too heavy a load from the Apple faithful tuning in to watch our site (and many others) live blog the event.

But then, the Apple.com site went down, as chronicled by CNET’s own Elinor Mills. Apple.com came to a screaming, screeching halt.

Did I mention that iCloud is supposed to go live in seven days?

Now, the Apple faithful out there will tell me this was an event of unprecedented popularity and Apple’s not expected to keep their site up under such a load. They might even say that if other sites couldn’t stay up under the massed interest, why should Apple be any different — especially since their site is at the Ground Zero of the attention tsunami?

This would be true, except that Apple is asking you to trust them with your data. This will not be the only big traffic day Apple has to weather. There will be natural disasters, there will be Super Bowls, there will be presidential elections, there will be unfortunate news about Britney Spears, Justin Bieber, and Paris Hilton to bring down servers.

If Apple claims iCloud will be the central hub for the digital lives of a hundred million or so iOS users, they need to be able to prove iCloud will be able to hold up under the demand.

This is not promising. When Apple’s MobileMe service launched, it was a dog. There were complaints everywhere, and it was clear Apple didn’t quite get the cloud world.

Now, they’ve renamed it and re-purposed it, calling it iCloud and asking you to trust them with everything digital you hold dear.

Apple couldn’t even keep its own Web site up and running during a mere product announcement.

Seven days. I did mention that iCloud is supposed to go live in seven days, didn’t I?

Seven days.

I don’t think this is going to be pretty.

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Topics

David Gewirtz, Distinguished Lecturer at CBS Interactive, is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets.

Disclosure

David Gewirtz

At various times during his adult life, David has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, and has been disappointed by both. He is deeply disturbed by how partisanship has come before patriotism in America, which gives him the freedom to pick on both sides.

David is a frequent guest on TV and radio stations across America and can usually be heard or seen on-the-air at least once a week. He writes weekly commentary and analysis for CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 and has been interviewed by Fox News, CNN, various ABC and NBC affiliates, and Canada’s Global TV. He has been a featured guest on National Public Radio and has also been featured on Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Liberty where his commentaries on technology, industry, and emerging nations have been broadcast into 46 countries (all in their own unique translations).

David is the executive director of U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, a nonprofit research and policy organization. He is the Cyberterrorism Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security and a special contributor to Frontline Security Magazine. He is a member of the FBI’s InfraGard program, the security partnership between the FBI and industry. David is also a member of the U.S. Naval Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association, the leading defense industry association promoting national security.

David is an advisory board member for the Technical Communications and Management Certificate program at the University of California, Berkeley extension. He is also a member of the instructional faculty at the University of California, Berkeley extension.

David’s “day job” is as publisher and editor-in-chief of ZATZ publishing, an online publisher of technical magazines. Other than than his ownership stake in Component Enterprises, Inc. (the parent company of ZATZ), David has no additional industry investments.

ZATZ has many advertisers who do, in part, provide for David’s lush income and extravagant lifestyle. Most of them are IBM and Lotus aftermarket suppliers, some of them make goodies for Microsoft Outlook, and a few make all sorts of strange mobile devices and add-on products. David has been a regular judge of the IBM Awards, but has no formal financial interest in or with IBM.

Because the ZATZ online magazines often review products, David and ZATZ are sent an overwhelming stream of unsolicited, silly, and often useless products to review. Because they’re such a pain to track and ship back, these products often wind up in a dumpster or fill up the corner of a large closet. Although David has no plans to review products in connection to his ZDNet blog, if he does do a product review, he will disclose any relationship completely in that posting.

Both through ZATZ and independently, David derives a small income through various advertising and sales relationships with Amazon.com and Google. These are minor relationships and they will not impede his willingness or ability to chastise either company should they deserve it.

David has many other business relationships, but none of them relate to anything he covers in his ZDNet blog. David does have a bit of the sales-guy bug and if he’s not doing a sales deal with someone at least once a month, he goes through withdrawal. He has a number of consulting clients, but none of them relate to anything he covers for ZDNet (and if they ever do, he will either disclose that fact, or decline to write about them).

Back in the 1980s, David held the unusual title of “Godfather” at Apple. He has written and published 40 incredibly simplistic applications for Apple’s iPhone.

Although David is forbidden to disclose the terms of his iPhone developer agreement, he isn’t drinking the Apple Kool Aid, will never be confused with a metrosexual, and feels free to mock Apple, and Apple users, any time the occasion permits, on alternate Tuesdays, or if he’s bored.

Biography

David Gewirtz

In addition to hosting the ZDNet Government and ZDNet DIY-IT blogs, CBS Interactive's Distinguished Lecturer David Gewirtz is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets, is one of America's foremost cyber-security experts, and is a top expert on saving and creating jobs. He is also director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute as well as the founder of ZATZ Publishing.

David is a member of FBI InfraGard, the Cyberwarfare Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, and has been a regular CNN contributor, and a guest commentator for the Nieman Watchdog of the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University. He is the author of Where Have All the Emails Gone?, the definitive study of email in the White House, as well as How To Save Jobs and The Flexible Enterprise, the classic book that served as a foundation for today's agile business movement.

Talkback Most Recent of 58 Talkback(s)

  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    Does Apple keep their website on the same servers/infrastructure that will house iCloud?

    If so... then I'd agree there's reason for concern...
    ZDNet Gravatar
    azlan.sharom@...
    4th Oct
  • ZDNet Blogger

    RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @azlan.sharom@... They are almost definitely completely different beasts. But the company's IT operations need to be judged by their entire public-facing service offerings, especially since the Web site is undoubtedly a much smaller operation than what they're trying to bite off with iCloud.

    It's just a bad sign, that's all.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    David Gewirtz
    4th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @David Gewirtz
    I agree. Yamaha keyboards suck. That's why I never ride their bikes...
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Psyanide
    5th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @Psyanide I agree. Yamaha keyboards suck. That's why I never ride their bikes...

    More like, Yamaha Keyboards Suck... would you trust their Guitars? Personally, if I thought their Keyboards sucked, I'd take a very cautious approach to their other musical instruments.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Badgered
    5th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @Psyanide
    Yamaha keyboards and guitars are pretty darned good products! Their motorcycles are wonderful! I don't know anything about their bicycles...But there isn't a one of 'em that I know of that wants to store your data in "the cloud".

    Apples and oranges? Maybe, but there are plenty of reasons to be careful of "cloud" offerings. The user just has to be aware that a connection failure or bandwidth problem is going to isolate them... And that their data will be accessed, sold, tampered with, possibly lost, and given up to law enforcement for capricious reasons... Those who accept that risk will remain happy happy happy.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    notme403@...
    5th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @David Gewirtz OK, so you're predicting a disaster without any basis whatsoever? Well, if you're wrong I hope to hear a Mea Culpa because I am SURE you will be screaming from the rooftops that you were right if it does happen. So tell me, what timetable are we talking here? Can't say that you're right if the site goes down some sunny day in 2015, right?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    cartman00000001
    5th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @David Gewirtz So they are different beast but you assume they will fail with iCloud? Launch day and probably the week after will be a test and there could be some hiccups but it's not the forgone conclusion that they will fail like you make it out to be. Of course this does not surprise me from you.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    non-biased
    7th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @David Gewirtz

    I really don't get what is the worry, so what if iCloud is unavailable to sync for a few minutes or even a few hours? It is basically an online backup copies of what I already have on my iDevice, I can continue to work with my local copies and worse thing that could happen is my iDevice become self-destruct and I lost what didn't get sync up to iCloud because iCloud is unavailable. You know what? With iCloud it is still better than without iCloud, because instead of losing a few hours of work, I still have a copy of my files, contacts... versus without iCloud, I will loss everything that I didn't backup or sync manually to my computer. So once again, iCloud with the possibility of a few hours of service interruption is still infinitely better than having to remember to backup/sync every night.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    SonofChef
    11th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @azlan.sharom@...

    Let me get this straight. Company 'A' wants to house all your data on Server 3, yet their website crashes on Server 1... you have all the confidence in them that your data will be just fine?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Badgered
    5th Oct
  • Obviously, Apple's site is not situatated on Apple's datacenter for iCloud,
    ... so there is no way to connect the site's fall to iCloud stability, which remains to be seen.

    Also, iCloud is more synchronization service rather than storage service: the data is always on concrete devices. It is nothing like Google's or Amazon's solutions where you can not get your data if there is problem with connection to the Internet or the data centres.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    DeRSSS
    4th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @DeRSSS Sure! Your data is safe from the man in the middle. It's JUST a synchronizing service. Sheesh. It's iCloud. Massive server banks which will store your data AND sync it (From the centralized storage) to various devices, like your iPhone, your iMac, your iPad, your iCar, your iBike, your iFridge, your iGlasses, your iShoes, your iTV, your iGun, your iBelt, your iWaterbottle, etc.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    notme403@...
    5th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @notme403@...

    Just call them iObjects so you don't have to chant the list
    ZDNet Gravatar
    mswift@...
    5th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @notme403@... So you missed the point that the data will be on your device and accessible? You are not working on documents in the cloud where they are then stored.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    non-biased
    7th Oct
  • David Gwerww ... who?
    David Gewirtz, "Distinguished Lecturer" (yeah right) at CBS Interactive, is a bona fide Apple Hater who has no idea how technology works: Prima-facie evidence therein is linking a website to the iCloud. GO back to your windows machine and continue being a tool. Rory Lewis
    ZDNet Gravatar
    innertron
    4th Oct
  • RE: If Apple can't keep it's own site up, can we really count on iCloud?
    @innertron
    Attack the person when you cannot argue the technology.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    notme403@...
    5th Oct

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