DIY-IT

David Gewirtz

The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal

By | November 22, 2011, 6:30am PST

Summary: Learn how a Groupon deal can be very compelling for buyers, but for sellers, it can be brutal.

When I started DIY-IT back in September, I promised I’d not only talk about DIY tech, but also about tips and techniques for small business operators. Since we’re entering the official start of the Silly Season, I though it was time to bring the small business aspect of DIY-IT into focus. I’m kicking it off with a cautionary tale of marketing, sales, and Groupon.

If you own or run a business, you know that you can’t sell if people don’t know about what you offer. There have, historically, been two key ways to create awareness: PR (getting covered in the press) and marketing (advertising and promotion you pay for to get awareness).

Since 2008, there has been another way: Groupon. Groupon is a deal-of-the-day service that has grown to have enormous reach. It works by partnering with vendors to offer coupons to customers. The idea that makes Groupon powerful is that deal doesn’t become active until a certain number of people buy into the group coupon (group+coupon=Groupon).

Groupon essentially becomes social selling.

If you want the deal real bad, you’ll tell a few of your friends, and eventually enough buzz will be generated that a bunch of people will want the deal and buy. This, to any marketer, is promotional gold.

Groupon makes its money by taking a portion of the deal. And this is where it can be absolutely poison to any company who uses Groupon for promotion. It works like this. You (as the seller) offer an incredibly compelling deal.

Let’s say you’re selling premium cupcakes, like Rachel Brown in London does. A dozen of these premium cupcakes sells for the equivalent of about $40, or $3.33 a cupcake (they better be awesome cupcakes). Rachel (true story) wanted more cupcake customers, so she did a deal with Groupon to offer cupcakes for 75% off, providing a dozen cupcakes for $10, or about $0.83 a cupcake.

You can see how a 75% off deal becomes very compelling for buyers, but for sellers, it can be brutal.

Do the math. No, seriously, do the math. Normally, Rachel gets about $40 for her dozen cupcakes. Now, she’s getting $10. But she has to split that $10 with Groupon, so she really only gets $5, a whopping $35 less than she would with a normal sale.

Here’s where it got really bad for baking Rachel. There’s no published limit to how many customers can get the Groupon deal. Apparently, Londoners love them their cupcakes, and, by the end of the promotion, 102 thousand cupcakes were ordered. That’s 8,500 dozen — each of which was sold at about a $3 loss.

The hit to her bottom line (more than $20,000) was one thing. But she and her batch of Brit bakers had to work overtime to crank out the 102 thousand cupcakes. So, not only did they lose money, they worked to exhaustion to do so.

Don’t be stupid

At the beginning of this article, I promised you the one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal and here it is: don’t be stupid.

I feel for Rachel, I really do. I’ve run a business and been so desperate for customers that I’d do almost anything. Almost. But there are limits and Groupon pushes them.

Groupon’s sales people will tell you that it’s okay to take a loss, because you’re creating so much extra awareness, but that’s not really true. People who will happily buy cupcakes for 75% off are not likely to come back and pay full freight. The extreme discount is often the draw, not the original offering.

If you’re considering doing a Groupon deal, take this caution in mind. Never, ever do a Groupon deal where you’re taking a loss. In fact, don’t ever do a Groupon deal where you’re not making some money. Think it through carefully.

Fire up a spreadsheet and calculate how you’d do if you sold, say, ten of whatever you sell. Then scale it. Calculate what would happen for a hundred, a thousand, ten thousand, a hundred thousand, even a million. If you can’t withstand the potential demand — even at what you might consider completely ridiculous volumes — don’t do the deal.

Awareness alone isn’t good enough. You need awareness with profitability.

Just ask Pets.com about that.

More tips on Groupon: How to Use Groupon Without Losing an Arm

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David Gewirtz, Distinguished Lecturer at CBS Interactive, is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets.

Disclosure

David Gewirtz

At various times during his adult life, David has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, and has been disappointed by both. He is deeply disturbed by how partisanship has come before patriotism in America, which gives him the freedom to pick on both sides.

David is a frequent guest on TV and radio stations across America and can usually be heard or seen on-the-air at least once a week. He writes weekly commentary and analysis for CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 and has been interviewed by Fox News, CNN, various ABC and NBC affiliates, and Canada’s Global TV. He has been a featured guest on National Public Radio and has also been featured on Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Liberty where his commentaries on technology, industry, and emerging nations have been broadcast into 46 countries (all in their own unique translations).

David is the executive director of U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, a nonprofit research and policy organization. He is the Cyberterrorism Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security and a special contributor to Frontline Security Magazine. He is a member of the FBI’s InfraGard program, the security partnership between the FBI and industry. David is also a member of the U.S. Naval Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association, the leading defense industry association promoting national security.

David is an advisory board member for the Technical Communications and Management Certificate program at the University of California, Berkeley extension. He is also a member of the instructional faculty at the University of California, Berkeley extension.

David’s “day job” is as publisher and editor-in-chief of ZATZ publishing, an online publisher of technical magazines. Other than than his ownership stake in Component Enterprises, Inc. (the parent company of ZATZ), David has no additional industry investments.

ZATZ has many advertisers who do, in part, provide for David’s lush income and extravagant lifestyle. Most of them are IBM and Lotus aftermarket suppliers, some of them make goodies for Microsoft Outlook, and a few make all sorts of strange mobile devices and add-on products. David has been a regular judge of the IBM Awards, but has no formal financial interest in or with IBM.

Because the ZATZ online magazines often review products, David and ZATZ are sent an overwhelming stream of unsolicited, silly, and often useless products to review. Because they’re such a pain to track and ship back, these products often wind up in a dumpster or fill up the corner of a large closet. Although David has no plans to review products in connection to his ZDNet blog, if he does do a product review, he will disclose any relationship completely in that posting.

Both through ZATZ and independently, David derives a small income through various advertising and sales relationships with Amazon.com and Google. These are minor relationships and they will not impede his willingness or ability to chastise either company should they deserve it.

David has many other business relationships, but none of them relate to anything he covers in his ZDNet blog. David does have a bit of the sales-guy bug and if he’s not doing a sales deal with someone at least once a month, he goes through withdrawal. He has a number of consulting clients, but none of them relate to anything he covers for ZDNet (and if they ever do, he will either disclose that fact, or decline to write about them).

Back in the 1980s, David held the unusual title of “Godfather” at Apple. He has written and published 40 incredibly simplistic applications for Apple’s iPhone.

Although David is forbidden to disclose the terms of his iPhone developer agreement, he isn’t drinking the Apple Kool Aid, will never be confused with a metrosexual, and feels free to mock Apple, and Apple users, any time the occasion permits, on alternate Tuesdays, or if he’s bored.

Biography

David Gewirtz

In addition to hosting the ZDNet Government and ZDNet DIY-IT blogs, CBS Interactive's Distinguished Lecturer David Gewirtz is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets, is one of America's foremost cyber-security experts, and is a top expert on saving and creating jobs. He is also director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute as well as the founder of ZATZ Publishing.

David is a member of FBI InfraGard, the Cyberwarfare Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, and has been a regular CNN contributor, and a guest commentator for the Nieman Watchdog of the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University. He is the author of Where Have All the Emails Gone?, the definitive study of email in the White House, as well as How To Save Jobs and The Flexible Enterprise, the classic book that served as a foundation for today's agile business movement.

Talkback Most Recent of 25 Talkback(s)

  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    I thought we got over the "I'm selling at a loss but making up for it in volume" sillyness after the dot com bubble.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    dsf3g
    22nd Nov
  • Sadly....
    @dsf3g ... we're not...
    ZDNet Gravatar
    daftkey
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    @dsf3g Hey, it worked for Amazon... wink
    ZDNet Gravatar
    masonwheeler
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    @masonwheeler - It'd be different if you could sell the cupcake itself at a loss but count on buyers to come back week after week for years to come to buy fresh icing to top it with.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    aaseeger
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    @dsf3g great work but.... do you no a new cloud service was just announced and that just got great features here: http://www.technologyfazer.com/the-razer-cloud-based-synapse-2-0.html
    ZDNet Gravatar
    nomikhokher
    22nd Nov
  • More than a $3 loss
    You're not including Rachel's costs in your calculation of her loss. She's paid for the materials -- flour, eggs, sugar, etc. -- and the labor to make the cupcakes -- including possibly overtime pay. She's paid for the power to run the mixers and ovens much longer than usual. Her cost may be another $1 or more per dozen.

    What's devious about Groupon and its clones is the way they present themselves: as a method of risk-free advertising. But there's plenty of risk if your deal sells your product or service below cost. There's the risk of selling too much and generating a huge loss.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    @mlanger
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    @@mlanger They never suggest you do more than 50% off. If you do, it's totally at your own risk.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Droid101
    22nd Nov
  • Depends on the product and your margins..
    @Droid101

    To be fair, there are other factors. In the case of something like premium cupcakes, the margins are usually high enough that you should be able to handle a large mark-down and still survive. Had she even made the deal $15 for a doz instead of $10, I'd be hard-pressed to think that she would be at a loss (and based on this article, she wouldn't have been.

    On the other hand, if you're an electronics retailer and offered 50% off a laptop computer, chances are you'd be regretting that move.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    daftkey
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    Actually, you can set a max cap on how many Groupons can sell.

    From section 3.2 of the terms and conditions: If you indicate a maximum number of vouchers in the DR, Groupon will stop promoting your Offer once such maximum is reached.

    So, you're right. Don't be stupid. Set a maximum!!
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Droid101
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    @Droid101 That's what I was thinking, too. There's certainly been a limit on each of the few Groupon deals I've bought.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    scottishwildcat
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    Calculate your cost, sell for slightly above it, set a maximum and go for it. But do not sell at a loss, unless you are sure you can handle it.

    By the way, I would never spend that much on a simple cupcake.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    cmwade1977
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    @cmwade1977

    By the way, I would never spend that much on a simple cupcake.

    You probably wouldn't spend more than a buck-fifty on a cup of coffee, either, and you're probably still in the majority. Regardless, Starbucks says there are enough people in the world that disagree with you to make such a business model successful.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    daftkey
    22nd Nov
  • DON'T BE STUPID...YOU'RE IN BUSINESS TO STAY IN BUSINESS
    Why would someone who can do math do a bad deal? Duh.

    On a positive note, though, usually 15% of buyers never redeem their purchase for goods. I'm sure that # ebbs and flows depending on location, price, time of year, and product. Plus, you get the money upfront from Groupon AND purchasers tend to over-buy mostly because of impulse so you make profit on other products purchased.

    Still, let me be clear that stupidity on the part of Groupon who allowed the deal AND by the business owner who was desperate for ANY business (even BAD business) should be avoided.

    But again, on a POSITIVE note, the best business people learn from their mistakes and figure out how to make this turn out for their best. Best of luck, Rachel. Cheers!
    ZDNet Gravatar
    kaneb80
    22nd Nov
  • ZDNet Gravatar
    ladgfie
    22nd Nov
  • RE: The one key rule for surviving a Groupon deal
    I find it baffling that a business owner who presumably knows what their numbers need to be to stay afloat then suspends reality to participate in a Groupon offering. It makes me wonder about Groupon's selling tactics.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    judithrubin
    22nd Nov

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