Gartner predicts hasta la Vista for future Microsoft OSs

Gartner predicts hasta la Vista for future Microsoft OSs

Summary: Gartner predicts the bleeding obvious: Vista will be the last Windows.LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Research firm Gartner Inc.

TOPICS: Windows

Gartner predicts the bleeding obvious: Vista will be the last Windows.

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Research firm Gartner Inc. turned soothsayer on Wednesday by predicting that Windows Vista will be the last big release of Microsoft Corp.'s Windows operating system.

Source: Gartner predicts Vista to be last major Windows - Yahoo! News

It will be the last because Vista runs a web browser, which overlays Vista--paper covers rock.

Bill Gates saw it coming when he crushed Netscape and established Internet Explorer(IE) as the market leader. He realized that the browser is the interface-not the OS.

It was the open source community that managed to revive Netscape's role as an alternative to Microsoft. But Microsoft did not give any respect to open source projects, it continually derided Linux for years. It did not see the challenge to IE as credible.

Microsoft could have kept far ahead of the Firefox/Safari/Opera etc, pack by innovating on Internet Explorer when it had the lead. Except MSFT decided to sit on it for about three years until the recent launch of IE7.

The new Internet Explorer 7.0 is good, it supports industry standards such as CSS far better than IE 6, and it has a many good features. If Microsoft had pushed that kind of innovation when it had pole position in the market, it would have taken the open source community a lot longer to catch up and challenge Internet Explorer.

This is the penalty from not innovating from a leadership position. The competitive distance is shortened, and short distances hearten people to challenge the status quo.

If Microsoft had pushed the envelope on IE, it would have cemented its position in owning the most important real estate in the world--the interface into our digital worlds.

Topic: Windows

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  • Great news, Microsoft! Congrats!

    Gartner predicts your operating system demise.... With Gartner's dismal predictions track record, Windows is sure for a long life ahead...

  • Just Like ZDNN to drop off important info

    The Yahoo article in the link states: NOTE THE WORK BIG, that
    hardly says Windows is gone.
    "Research firm Gartner Inc. turned soothsayer on Wednesday by predicting that Windows Vista will be the last big release of Microsoft Corp.'s (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) Windows operating system."

    And I have the NDAs to prove it. My rep has given me PowerPoints (On Office 2007) to show me the next BIG version of Windows. It promises to be more scalable, more extendable and more robust than Vista. My rep said to me I should expect a pre-alpha release sometime in the 2008-2011 timeframe. Until that time, my MCSDs and MCSDEs are running around here working on Vista. So far we have seen very few issues except for the fact that nobody can print or VPN into our office. Other than that, the Vista looks brighter and the eXPerience could not be better.
    Mike Cox
  • 3.2 billion reasons why this is wrong.

    In the latest quarter, Microsoft's client business had about $3.2 billion in revenue, and about $2.6 in profits. Not a bad business
    to be in, huh? The vast majority of this was driven by sales of
    Windows XP.

    Even if sales and profits were to fall by 50%, this is one helluva a profitable business. Any company would kill for that sort of margin.

    Sure, the browser is ever more important, and yes Firefox is a formidable competitor. However, Microsoft is going to have trouble charging for IE when Firefox is free.

    As long as there is money to be made, Microsoft will continue with new versions of Windows. Although sales and margins may not grow like they once did, and may eventually decline, it is going to be a long time before Windows is an unprofitable business.
    • Good point

      Plus without new OS's, they can't force people to adopt the newest Office suite by cutting off old versions of OS's for their latest products.
    • Think about it a second

      Even if there are no new BIG releases of the Windows that doesn't mean there won't be point releases with fixed issues and additional features.

      Even if that wasn't the case what would people run for an OS. Every PC comes with an OS so almost every computer sold counts as a sale for Microsoft.

      Also where else are they going to go. They have 90% or possibly more of the desktop market depending on which study you read. Hardly a case for growth but definitely a case for a steady income while they poor profits from the Desktop market into other growth areas like servers, consoles, portable devices, and such.

      It's very concievable that Vista may be the last major release unless something really drastic changes the computer world and demands a whole re-write of the OS.
  • Not nearly obvious

    I enthusiastically agree that Microsoft's best move would be to drop the "blockbuster release" mentality and go for incremental improvement on their existing products. As a matter of fact, they [b]should[/b] have done so five years ago. If they had, the stockholders would be at least $10 billion ahead, most likely more.

    Well, so if it's so obvious why are they already planning the next big release?

    Answer: incremental improvement doesn't deliver the rush that they got from people standing in line for MSWin95. Like the "first time" for a lot of things, the experience is impossible to recreate but there are people who spend a lifetime trying. If you have more money than mortals can spend, the rewards tend to move to other things, so don't expect the reasoning behind product planning to be entirely rational.
    Yagotta B. Kidding
    • Another answer

      I don't think it's so much the "rush" of having a big release is the answer so much as it is that incremental releases wouldn't bring the same revenue stream. MS, for better or worse, has decided to monetize their licensing as a revenue stream, and people would not be as inclined to buy incremental releases, preferring instead to wait for a "major" release to upgrade. MS (it seems to me) instead bundles these "incremental" releases into Service Packs and then bundles the cost into the price of Windows at each release.

      Then again, who knoweth the mind of Microsoft?
  • Gartner is clueless

    Sorry, but there will be new versions of Windows.
    • Gartner never said that there wouldnt be new releases

      Read the Link in the story the ZDNN Author left off a key point to their prediction and that is there will be NO NEW BIG RELEASES.
  • Improving IE had anti-trust implications

    I can't help but think that part of the reason MS backed off improvements for awhile was due to all the anti-trust issues surrounding IE.

    A smart company would wait until they settled much of it and then move ahead when the timing was right.

    Isn't that pretty much what we seen?
    • I doubt it

      Personally I think they back off improving IE was because there was no need to improve it. There was no competition so they could get away with not improving it. Then FireFox came along and low and behold Microsoft started scrambing to bring out IE 7. That's what happened.

      Wasn't it Microsoft that said that Vista wouldn't even have browser? This was of course some 4 years ago when it was called long horn.
    • There were Anti-Trust implications with IE (as per the US case)

      That was the crux of the US case, Microsoft had a monopoly position on browsers (roughly 95% as per both the Findings of Fact and Findings of Law as well as the Appeals Court ruling). They had no motivation to improve IE when they had the lions share of the market. It wasn't until Firefox started gaining some ground that they started working on a new iteration of IE (and the move to web based applications in areas like/for CRM, mail, etc.).

      When you have a monopoly, you don't have to improve much and you still have position. When you have to compete (as in, not having a monopoly position in a given market), you have to innovate and improve your product/service. Look at the market shares for the browsers used over time.
  • He realized that the browser is the interface-not the OS.

    Didn't Bill Gates supposedly say, "The Internet? We are not interested in it" and "The Internet is just a passing fad", or something to like that, sometime prior to the release of Win 95?
    • Yup he did

      Also wasn't it Bill Gates that suggested Long Horn would come with out a browser and that the browser was a dead concept. The OS and it's apps would replace the browser. An interesting idea but hardly show's that he thought the browser was the interface.
      • It sounds as though much of what is said

        these days by these companies like ZDNet, Gartner and many more are more based on wanting to get a sound bite then it is to have actuall information put forth for the public's comsumption.

        We have one article interperting statements one way, while another site has the oposite insight form the same comment.

        Could it be that many of these companies, like Gartner, have no idea what will come, but must at least say something in order to look as though they are still relavent?
  • Doubtful

    1. Web browsers are horridly inadequate application containers. It works for some things, not most. Unless a redefinition of the "web browser" comes along, this will never happen.

    2. Incremental designs are nice, but rarely do they work without ending up with some monstrous nightmare in the long run. To top it off, building Windows incrementally in small changes not only effects Microsoft, but also it affects the probably trillion-dollar halo Windows makes when they do larger releases. PC manufacturers sell large amounts of new computers, application vendors release new optimized versions, tech support teams grow by the dozens ;). It all adds up to REALLY big money.
  • Next big release of Windows in approximately two years.

    That was Mr. Ballmer's prediction and Microsoft has reorganized toward that goal.

    I suspect Gartner's problem is that it has a prediction of what is going to happen in computing, and, like some views of history, holds that variation from the inevitable is impossible.

    Of course, companies ignore these inevitabilities when profits are available. Microsoft sells big releases, so there will be big releases.
    The internet provides convenience for users and prompt access for updates.

    Changes occur to increase profits, and not as very premature admissions of defeat.
    Anton Philidor
    • Microsoft saved money on IE 6.

      The browser was going to disappear so far into the operatuing system that the user would not necessarily realize he was on the web.

      That was the plan for Vista years ago. So why spend money on something that won't exist(?); development will be subsumed in work on the operating system. And why be concerned about competition(?), when users could conveniently ignore it in the new Windows.

      Plans changed and work on IE 7 began.

      A new operating system is a fresh start. I wonder how many FireFox users won't bother downloading it.
      Anton Philidor
  • Vista can also limit your career

    For a career limiting move install Vista in your office hacked and cracked and see how long you survive in the IT industry! <a href="">Hasta La Vista></a>