Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

Summary: Analysts from both Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are predicting that Apple will offer 2 new iPhones, including a "budget-friendly" $350 one for the pre-paid market, but provide no evidence to support their claims.


It's one thing when we speculate on the next iPhone based on leaked photos that could have been someone's Photoshop project, but quite another when analysts from two different investment banks are arriving at similar conclusions without any concrete evidence. Or is it?

Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley just returned to the U.S. after undisclosed meetings in Taiwan (possibly with Apple suppliers), when she informed investors that production for the next iPhone will "begin ramping up aggressively" from August to the end of 2011, according to Fortune. Based on her information, she believes these devices will be available to consumers by the end of September, and that Apple will be offering both the next-gen iPhone as well as a lower priced iPhone concurrently, according to AppleInsider.

Her colleague at Deutsche Bank, Chris Whitmore, made even bolder claims today by telling clients to "expect" both a pre-paid, unlocked iPhone 4S and a newly designed iPhone 5. He believes $349 would be the magic number to enable Apple to capture new customers, particularly in parts of the world where carriers do not subsidize the cost of handsets with a contract -- that's "1.5 billion potential customers in 98 countries, two thirds of whom prefer pre-paid plans" according to Fortune. As Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Fortune noted, "Whitmore does not cite any sources or claim any inside knowledge for his two-iPhone theory."

While it's entirely possible that the iPhone 5 will cause an iPhone 4s to be deeply discounted and co-exist like the current iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 ecosystem, neither Huberty nor Whitmore have offered any evidence to backup their claims. I find it hard to believe the factories will have enough time to produce two different iPhones at the same time for September. As my colleagues have pointed out, the only sure bets about the next iPhone is that it will run iOS 5 and that it's coming. So far, only the LulzSec leaked AT&T documents have provided the most concrete evidence that the next iPad will be LTE-enabled, whereas the analysts seem to be making lofty declarations without any proofs. Who do you believe more? The hackers or the analysts?

[Source: Fortune, AppleInsider via Laptop]


Topics: iPhone, Apple, Hardware, Mobility, Smartphones

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  • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

    An introduction of an iPhone 4S for prepaid markets only makes logical sense. While it's purely anecdotal, I see a lot of people turning to prepaid plans now, especially Boost Mobile and Virgin Mobile. Judging by the word of mouth and increasing advertisements, I would have to conclude that Virgin Mobile's LG Optimus V on the $25/$40/$60 prepaid plans have been a hit.<br><br>With the iPhone now being both GSM and CDMA, Apple could easily take an initial small financial hit and put out an iPhone 4S into prepaid systems like Virgin Mobile and Boost Mobile and reap big rewards. If people have been willing to pay $149-$199 for prepaid Android phones, I'm willing to bet that many would gleefully pay higher for a no-contract, low-price-plan, iPhone.
    • Though the '4s' will not be called so since the '4' is just generation ...

      @Captiosus: ... number, not the technology type (as it was with '3G' going to '3Gs') -- thus '4s' would be nonsensical numbering.

      Also, iPhone 4 is quite pricy to make -- both hardened glass and steel frame are much more expensive than plastic used in iPhone 3Gs.

      While with introduction of iPhone 5 Apple would be definitely able to sell these iPhone 4-based phones cheaper than currently, these will not be able to compete with $300-priced (no contract) devices from HTC -- <b>but iPhone 3Gs will</b>.
      • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

        @DeRSSS 4s makes sense to me. The 4th generation phone, "special" edition. If it was called a 4Gs then people may be mislead into thinking it was an LTE iPhone.
        awkward hug
      • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

        @DeRSSS Fair points, all. Regardless of whether it's the 4G, or a modified 4G, or the 3Gs, I just see Apple eventually tapping into the lucrative prepaid markets. They're missing an opportunity that's currently being dominated by LG, HTC and Samsung with Android platforms.

        I think if Apple were to put out a $350 or so iPhone (regardless of type) out on the no-contract, low-price-point plans, it would sell like hotcakes.
  • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

    Makes sense. The 2 year old iPhone 3Gs is still outselling current Android phones on ATT. The 1st Gen iPad 1 on Verizon is still outselling current tablets. Clearly there's a huge market for cheaper older gen iOS devices.
  • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

    Boy, I could be wrong, but I have never seen the blogosphere so convinced that Apple was about to drop SO MANY devices in such a short period of time.

    So far we have... New Air (definitely), New Mini (definitely), iPhone 5 (likely), iPad 3 (really?) Apple branded Television (no), and now yet ANOTHER iPhone model all in the span of less than 90 days. Apple thrives on the excitement generated by these product releases. It seems odd to me that they would eliminate so much potential pent up demand for product in such short succession, versus spreading these out and having near constant demand over a longer period.
    • Well

      @Playdrv4me... the iPhone 4s and iPhone 5 I could believe, because Apple did not update the hardware on the iPhone line yet, so I would expect either an iPhone 5 or 4s possibly both this September. Mac Air, maybe, to get the Thunderbolt port. Mac Mini, definitely due. Apple TV? perhaps a set top box refresh, built into a TV? no. iPad 3, no. I could see iPad 3 being released next year with the rest of the iOS devices in September. iPod Touch definitely.
  • no LTE

    if it has no LTE it wont matter.
  • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

    people dont waste your time on iphone 5 it just going be samething and not much change. Most of features are copycat of windows phone 7 features and android features. Apple just cant think of new things to add to there glitchy iphone. Also was sucks is stupid ICONS and same body design and battery which you can't even swap out. Wonder if Big Brother Steve Jobs is still tracking on iphone users every move? LOL...

    I rather wait for windows phone 7 new phone models comes with built in 500 features update this Sept 2011.
  • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

    I do know that the more rumors we see, the better the stock prices do. The fact that the stock lives in a bubble is not addressed and there has to be some way to keep that bubble afloat...seems to be working
  • RE: Rumor: Apple to launch iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 by September?

    Hmmm .. from what I am reading around the rumor mill, the next iPhone will likely follow the same naming conventions as the previous versions .. suspect 4S or 4GS. It will most likely be an interm phone that updates the modem chip set to 4G status, and include iOS5 .. and minor changes.
    iPhone 5 will be out 2012 1st quarter, as Apple rarely ever launches 2 similar devices in the same year.
    I do see the need for a pay-as-you-go device, and this new 4(?) version might fit into this logical platform, But the 3GS is also iOS5 compatible and basically being given away at all carrier location so my bet is on for them selling a special OS unlocked version of it.
    But hey who knows .. my next phone will be an Android device ... lol
    Dreaming of a Samsung Galaxy S2 ... ah ya !!!
  • Wish List: iPhone 5-Fix iCal Alerts!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Well, let's hope that Apple FINALLY fixes the iCal alert problem in the iPhone 5, or iOS 5! For those of us with busy daily schedules, we need our scheduled iCal alerts to actually ALERT us. The current single pathetic "chirp" is ridiculous. If the iPhone is on your belt holder, in your suit pocket, or anywhere other than in your face, you WILL miss an important alert for a meeting time, or anything else scheduled. Apple has promised to add repeats to the iCal alert, along with LOUD/LONG selectable tones, since BEFORE 3.0 update. You would think Apple would focus on these basic features? I know quite a few people like myself in business, that will not upgrade until this is fixed. I spoke to the iPhone development team over 2 years ago, and was assured this was going to be fixed ASAP. I really don't want to switch to Android, but I am getting very weary of missing alerts from my iCalendar!