Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?

By | September 1, 2010, 7:05am PDT

Summary: 2012. The end of the world. Or, maybe, the end of electronics. Or, maybe not. Maybe it’ll be 2013.

2012. The end of the world. Or, maybe, the end of electronics. Or, maybe not. Maybe it’ll be 2013. It could be the end of civilization as we know it. Or, maybe not.

For the record, I’m not making this up. These are the sort of third-hand, reasonably imprecise dire warnings we’re hearing from some sources.

Follow along, because either we’re doomed — or duped.

According to an article in Monday’s issue of New American, an Australian columnist and “lecturer” named Dave Reneke is claiming that 2012 (or maybe 2013) could be the year that the sun flares to a level that it destroys global electronics.

Reneke bases his analysis on interpretations of a $31 research report published by the National Academies Press, based out of Washington, DC.

Another report claims, and I couldn’t make this up if I tried, that a “Sun storm to hit with ‘force of 100m bombs’”.

This one, too, goes on to quote Aussie “lecturer” Reneke, who states that a coming Solar Max storm “will be the most violent in 100 years”.

Sigh.

I got involved in this story when one of my favorite fellow ZDNet bloggers (who shall remain nameless as I’m about to put my mock on) suggested I write about what the American government was going to do about our impending doom.

Okay, okay. Fine. First, the obvious disclaimers. I am not an astronomer. My engineering degree is in computer science, which gives me some technical cred, but I did not take even one course on the subject about which I’m writing today.

That said, I am a darned good researcher. I have not found much credible information that backs up Reneke’s claim. There are a lot of blog spoutings on the topic, one article by an ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) affiliate claiming it’s all rubbish, but nothing tangible that supports Reneke’s doom and gloom story, especially as he’s managed to situate it in the middle of 2012.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s not right. History is filled with stories of renegade Renekes who warned about impending doom, only to be ignored and later proven correct.

This brings us back to my fellow blogger’s question about what the American government is doing about it. Let’s chunk that question up and ask what the American government is doing about any of our crisis areas?

Are they fixing our roads and bridges? No. Are they really solving our health care crisis? No. Are our politicians able to stand in a room together for even a few hours without making sophomoric outbursts? No.

America is having a focus problem. Right now, the left is fighting with the left. The right is fighting with the right. Neither side is putting America first for problems that are provable, urgent, and tangible right now.

In that light, has American prepared its infrastructure for an influx of solar radiation?

Um, no. Outside of a few structures and systems hardened for any eventuality, if we’re hit by the Mother of All Solar Maxes, we’re probably screwed.

On the other hand, 2012 is an election year, and we could wind up with President Palin.

I guess you just takes your chances no matter how the world turns.

Go ahead, TalkBack. But before you do, know that I really like Sarah Palin. I don’t want her to be president, but I do like her. Okay, now go ahead and let ‘em rip.

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David Gewirtz, Distinguished Lecturer at CBS Interactive, is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets.

Disclosure

David Gewirtz

At various times during his adult life, David has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, and has been disappointed by both. He is deeply disturbed by how partisanship has come before patriotism in America, which gives him the freedom to pick on both sides.

David is a frequent guest on TV and radio stations across America and can usually be heard or seen on-the-air at least once a week. He writes weekly commentary and analysis for CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 and has been interviewed by Fox News, CNN, various ABC and NBC affiliates, and Canada’s Global TV. He has been a featured guest on National Public Radio and has also been featured on Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Liberty where his commentaries on technology, industry, and emerging nations have been broadcast into 46 countries (all in their own unique translations).

David is the executive director of U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, a nonprofit research and policy organization. He is the Cyberterrorism Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security and a special contributor to Frontline Security Magazine. He is a member of the FBI’s InfraGard program, the security partnership between the FBI and industry. David is also a member of the U.S. Naval Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association, the leading defense industry association promoting national security.

David is an advisory board member for the Technical Communications and Management Certificate program at the University of California, Berkeley extension. He is also a member of the instructional faculty at the University of California, Berkeley extension.

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Biography

David Gewirtz

In addition to hosting the ZDNet Government and ZDNet DIY-IT blogs, CBS Interactive's Distinguished Lecturer David Gewirtz is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets, is one of America's foremost cyber-security experts, and is a top expert on saving and creating jobs. He is also director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute as well as the founder of ZATZ Publishing.

David is a member of FBI InfraGard, the Cyberwarfare Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, and has been a regular CNN contributor, and a guest commentator for the Nieman Watchdog of the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University. He is the author of Where Have All the Emails Gone?, the definitive study of email in the White House, as well as How To Save Jobs and The Flexible Enterprise, the classic book that served as a foundation for today's agile business movement.

Talkback Most Recent of 167 Talkback(s)

  • Forget Reneke. Remember Einstein!
    Recalling a quote from Einstein, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." (1947).

    Einstein was right on most counts. What do you think?
    ZDNet Gravatar
    varunh
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    totally agree with Einstein, but this is off-subject.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    lcoleary
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @lcoleary Sticks and stones implies a post digital world, so not so off topic.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    boggs@...
    2nd Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @varunh
    The thing about WW-IV implies a WW_III to come first !
    That could very likely cause a lot of destruction.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    hkommedal
    4th Sep 2010
  • ZDNet Gravatar
    snberk341
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    Actually, Americans love to be scared. You can sell stuff to scared people, and the American media knows this... so they feed Americans one scary story after another to build that fear up. Unfortunately for the rest of the world that scary stuff slops over the borders.

    Watch the international news outlets for confirmation. In the US a smash-n-grab at an Apple store news item becomes a chance to scare Americans about crime and guns and the chances for being caught in the middle of a vicious breaking of glass. In the rest of the world it would be a page 29 item about the theft of 8 iPhones.

    Boo!
    ZDNet Gravatar
    snberk341
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @snberk341

    That's about my take as well. To put a slightly different point on it I'd say most people don't actually love to be scared. They are more ruled by their ceaseless efforts to appear brave, smart, together, etc. Media sells to the degree it supports that effort as evoking by naming our fears gives the illusion of courage, power, smarts, etc. and those experiences as illusion are good enough for getting by which is all (sadly) most are left committed to.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Bernard Shanfield
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @Bernard Shanfield

    I believe that you are putting a more positive spin on this than warrants. I don't believe it allows people to appear brave.... I think it allows them to justify the products bought and decisions made to enhance the illusion of safety. It makes them feel less scared.... not more brave. But that's just my opinion.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    snberk341
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @snberk341

    Yes, spinning gently as I write to be heard, words can impact as hard as fists, and I'm have no interest in being hurtful.

    Yes, feeling justified, avoiding external blame or internal condemnations in various forms all serve a sense of being in control of the moment and at least thinking we know what's going to happen. Moving from terror to just scared while still a perhaps low state takes great courage.

    Thanks for a gentle man's spirit in your words during these time of the sky falling before the world's end, again! wink
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Bernard Shanfield
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @snberk341 Not sure Americans love it, but they eat it right up. That's how government and corporations sell you so much crap. There are at least a few of us who are not stupid enough to believe it all.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Al_nyc
    1st Sep 2010
  • ZDNet Gravatar
    ItsTheBottomLine
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    We can not have both ways Have a small government and ask the government to solve all our problems from health care to the oil speal to global policemen and defence from sun flairs. Think about taxes...
    ZDNet Gravatar
    ivan.sipos@...
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    " America is having a focus problem. Right now, the left is fighting with the left. The right is fighting with the right. Neither side is putting America first for problems that are provable, urgent, and tangible right now."

    This is nothing new. It's just at a ridiculous and insane level right now.

    Like Y2K, I suspect we will address this issue about 12 to 18 months before a Solar Max is predicted to occur. However, a Solar Max is a force of Nature and not computer code. The protection(s) required had better have an achievable finish date to address something of this nature in a mere 12 to 18 months. My guess is we will argue and debate the solution to the place where we miss the tipping -point and end up in trouble of some kind. I will be more surprised if we actually get a fix in place that will work ahead of the ensuing collapse of electronics as we know it. This of course, is provided that the pundits are correct.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    The Rifleman
    1st Sep 2010
  • ZDNet Gravatar
    snberk341
    1st Sep 2010
  • RE: Will the digital world be destroyed in 2012?
    @The Rifleman all we need is a 24 or 48 hours notice, an a politican with the guts to order the shut down all unprotected electral equipement.

    Unfortuantly if Palin is in charge she probably just try to shoot the Solar flare with her shot gun or blame the Russians.
    ZDNet Gravatar
    Knowles2
    2nd Sep 2010

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