2009

2009

Summary: Here are a few more projections of what could happen in greentech world during 2009. First some predictions about what could be up in the world of infrastructure.

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TOPICS: China, Banking
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Here are a few more projections of what could happen in greentech world during 2009. First some predictions about what could be up in the world of infrastructure. (I know that's a useful word but I sure hate it...how about big stuff, instead?)

These are from Norman Anderson, President and CEO of CG/LA: 1) National Infrastructure Bank. In the US, the Obama government will create a National Infrastructure Bank, -- this will be a sustained game changer for the US infrastructure industry, doubling market size to $300 billion and, more importantly, creating new markets, and new ways of thinking about mobility, inter-modality and productivity. 2) Global Infrastructure Spend. Globally, In 2008 the world spent 2.2% of GDP on infrastructure, -- as a result of already announced fiscal stimulus plans this figure will rise to roughly 2.9% in 2009 (an additional $280+ billion); developed countries will fare better than developing countries, achieving a nearly 1% bump in infrastructure investment as a percentage of GDP. 3) Advent of New Infrastructure Model. A new infrastructure finance model will rapidly emerge, replacing the privatization model that died a decade ago, with robust public sector participation, lead by catalytic private firms that put much more of their balance sheets at risk. [Seems he sees risk moving from Wall Street paper to capital spending.] 4) New Model in the US. In the US, this model will increasingly take cues from the Spanish model - including a series of roll-ups, the marriage of E&C firms with financial players, and the creation of an infrastructure bond market pegged to project rates of return ([this] will increase the investment capacity of the public sector by as much as 300%). 5) E&C Leadership/Strategic Infrastructure. After a decade of anemic finance-led infrastructure performance we look forward to a re-balancing in 2009, whereby engineers and the engineering mindset (productivity IRR's rather than financial IRR's - thinking in 20-30 year strategic terms) play their proper role in project concept and design creation. [Do you see this guy is saying the stock market loses its primacy? What about those option-based CEO packages?]

We can only hope Anderson's right about some of this. Now here's what another analyst, Ed Ring, sees happening with solar, and the barriers that still exist between desire and the delivery of competitive solar-based electricity. There are those in the industry that see 2009 as the year solar breaks out of its past harnesses, dependence on government subsidies and mandates. blog_solar08.jpg Courtesy: NREL. Utility scale solar panel installation.

Here's what Ring says about the big push toward solar, coming from China: "For example, in a recent report issued by SolarPlaza.com covering solar development in China, there are dozens of heavily funded companies pursuing both thin film and crystalline technologies that are “aiming for growth rates of 100% to 400% per year.” China already has four solar companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, JA Solar, Suntech, Trina Solar, and Solarfun. China’s solar production capacity will exceed 1.0 gigawatt in 2008 and there is no end in sight."

Ring is editor at Ecoworld.com.

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Topics: China, Banking

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